Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
67
Down 73%
$29.8K
$-14.4K
Smart Money Signal
49 of 67 top traders (73%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.6K | 55% 440-360 (800) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$2.14 | 43% 289-389 (678) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | -$10.79 | 45% 570-710 (1280) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 859-7 (866) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 51.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$531.19 | 27% 284-780 (1064) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$26.85 | 51% 1955-1898 (3853) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 96.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$61.27 | 60% 70-46 (116) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 74.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$118.43 | 47% 1054-1177 (2231) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $920 | +$2.65 | 52% 3521-3295 (6816) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 57.1¢ | $798.43 | $831.46 | +$33.03 | 52% 5054-4750 (9804) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 55.5¢ | $728.43 | $798.22 | +$69.79 | 44% 751-957 (1708) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 62.8¢ | $1.0K | $792.37 | -$99.78 | 52% 2275-2131 (4406) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.2¢ | $760.67 | $707.26 | -$53.41 | 55% 4461-3621 (8082) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 31.4¢ | $1.5K | — | -$914.5 | 49% 2352-2415 (4767) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Downavg 48.9¢ | $746.22 | $686.78 | +$41.11 | 28% 114-292 (406) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 46.3¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 59% 1055-721 (1776) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $514.72 | $521 | +$6.28 | 98% 3919-84 (4003) |
AL almach | Downavg 50.1¢ | $771.32 | $497.4 | +$255.61 | 51% 1479-1409 (2888) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $628.51 | $492.3 | +$0.66 | 54% 3695-3113 (6808) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 50.3¢ | $435.04 | $450.38 | +$15.33 | 52% 385-352 (737) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 45.7¢ | $465.76 | — | -$443.13 | 46% 807-940 (1747) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 56.4¢ | $287.9 | $316.4 | +$28.5 | 54% 4574-3968 (8542) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $277.89 | $302.21 | +$24.33 | 51% 3277-3198 (6475) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 48.7¢ | $146 | $300 | +$154 | 46% 1080-1251 (2331) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 35.8¢ | $2.1K | — | -$622.17 | 51% 1473-1419 (2892) |
Invested
$8,750
Value
—
PnL
$-8.6K
Record
55%
440-360 (800)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$2.14
Record
43%
289-389 (678)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$10.79
Record
45%
570-710 (1280)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
859-7 (866)
AtomforgeInvested
$1,956.99
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$531.19
Record
27%
284-780 (1064)
Invested
$2,044.29
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$26.85
Record
51%
1955-1898 (3853)
Invested
$1,804.73
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$61.27
Record
60%
70-46 (116)
Invested
$1,732.14
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$118.43
Record
47%
1054-1177 (2231)
Invested
$950
Value
$920
PnL
+$2.65
Record
52%
3521-3295 (6816)
Invested
$798.43
Value
$831.46
PnL
+$33.03
Record
52%
5054-4750 (9804)
Invested
$728.43
Value
$798.22
PnL
+$69.79
Record
44%
751-957 (1708)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$1,011.75
Value
$792.37
PnL
-$99.78
Record
52%
2275-2131 (4406)
Invested
$760.67
Value
$707.26
PnL
-$53.41
Record
55%
4461-3621 (8082)
Invested
$1,450.26
Value
—
PnL
-$914.5
Record
49%
2352-2415 (4767)
Invested
$746.22
Value
$686.78
PnL
+$41.11
Record
28%
114-292 (406)
Invested
$1,007.98
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
59%
1055-721 (1776)
Invested
$514.72
Value
$521
PnL
+$6.28
Record
98%
3919-84 (4003)
Invested
$771.32
Value
$497.4
PnL
+$255.61
Record
51%
1479-1409 (2888)
Invested
$628.51
Value
$492.3
PnL
+$0.66
Record
54%
3695-3113 (6808)
Invested
$435.04
Value
$450.38
PnL
+$15.33
Record
52%
385-352 (737)
Invested
$465.76
Value
—
PnL
-$443.13
Record
46%
807-940 (1747)
FairValueMachineInvested
$287.9
Value
$316.4
PnL
+$28.5
Record
54%
4574-3968 (8542)
Invested
$277.89
Value
$302.21
PnL
+$24.33
Record
51%
3277-3198 (6475)
machinelearnedInvested
$146
Value
$300
PnL
+$154
Record
46%
1080-1251 (2331)
Invested
$2,143.51
Value
—
PnL
-$622.17
Record
51%
1473-1419 (2892)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
machine-earning
Down — $3.7K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
Atomforge
Down — $2.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.0K
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $1.9K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.6K
soswald1
Down — $920
blue.birds
Down — $831.46