Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
61
Down 87%
1 arb excluded
$35.8K
$1.1K
Smart Money Signal
53 of 61 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.6K | +$44.22 | 55% 430-355 (785) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$8.96 | 42% 279-382 (661) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | +$123.29 | 45% 563-700 (1263) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 853-7 (860) |
BO bosona | Downavg 88.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$176.79 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$15.56 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
AL almach | Downavg 85.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$201.82 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 84.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$207.38 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$2.3 | 52% 3474-3256 (6730) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 73.9¢ | $669.8 | $740.92 | +$71.13 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 82.6¢ | $662.95 | $655.19 | -$7.76 | 44% 740-946 (1686) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 68.5¢ | $448.32 | $547.83 | +$150.01 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 55.6¢ | $614.55 | $494.01 | +$5.03 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 69.1¢ | $582.23 | $470.3 | +$5.49 | 59% 1039-714 (1753) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 81.6¢ | $482.49 | $477.42 | -$5.06 | 52% 5039-4741 (9780) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 91¢ | $493.1 | $541.57 | +$48.47 | 46% 1070-1239 (2309) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 75.2¢ | $385.49 | $407.66 | +$22.17 | 52% 371-344 (715) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 99¢ | $382.18 | $386.04 | +$3.86 | 60% 70-46 (116) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 66.8¢ | $402.45 | $383.78 | +$2.46 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $299.72 | $329.33 | +$29.61 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 94.5¢ | $261.92 | $277.19 | +$15.28 | 33% 1061-2196 (3257) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 58.2¢ | $205.49 | $262.91 | +$70.4 | 52% 878-815 (1693) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 78¢ | $176.92 | $200 | +$23.08 | 33% 706-1465 (2171) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 73.3¢ | $102.49 | $139.88 | +$37.39 | 47% 2230-2478 (4708) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 90.5¢ | $106.61 | $109.89 | +$3.28 | 48% 737-796 (1533) |
Invested
$8,898
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$44.22
Record
55%
430-355 (785)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$8.96
Record
42%
279-382 (661)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$123.29
Record
45%
563-700 (1263)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
853-7 (860)
Invested
$1,619.35
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$176.79
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
Invested
$1,490.44
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$15.56
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$1,326.03
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$201.82
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Invested
$1,164.04
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$207.38
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$2.3
Record
52%
3474-3256 (6730)
Invested
$669.8
Value
$740.92
PnL
+$71.13
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
Invested
$662.95
Value
$655.19
PnL
-$7.76
Record
44%
740-946 (1686)
Invested
$448.32
Value
$547.83
PnL
+$150.01
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$614.55
Value
$494.01
PnL
+$5.03
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Invested
$582.23
Value
$470.3
PnL
+$5.49
Record
59%
1039-714 (1753)
Invested
$482.49
Value
$477.42
PnL
-$5.06
Record
52%
5039-4741 (9780)
machinelearnedInvested
$493.1
Value
$541.57
PnL
+$48.47
Record
46%
1070-1239 (2309)
Invested
$385.49
Value
$407.66
PnL
+$22.17
Record
52%
371-344 (715)
Invested
$382.18
Value
$386.04
PnL
+$3.86
Record
60%
70-46 (116)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$402.45
Value
$383.78
PnL
+$2.46
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Invested
$299.72
Value
$329.33
PnL
+$29.61
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
pspspsps5Invested
$261.92
Value
$277.19
PnL
+$15.28
Record
33%
1061-2196 (3257)
Invested
$205.49
Value
$262.91
PnL
+$70.4
Record
52%
878-815 (1693)
Invested
$176.92
Value
$200
PnL
+$23.08
Record
33%
706-1465 (2171)
Invested
$102.49
Value
$139.88
PnL
+$37.39
Record
47%
2230-2478 (4708)
Invested
$106.61
Value
$109.89
PnL
+$3.28
Record
48%
737-796 (1533)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.6K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.7K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
bosona
Down — $1.8K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
almach
Down — $1.5K
mo-money
Down — $1.4K
soswald1
Down — $950
stepahead
Down — $740.92