Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
65
Up 41%
2 arb excluded
$26.6K
$-15.5K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 65 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed39 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.1K | +$7.37 | 55% 430-355 (785) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 42% 279-382 (661) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.5K | +$46.25 | 45% 563-700 (1263) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 98.1¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$77.87 | 71% 1635-682 (2317) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 54.4¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 59% 1039-714 (1753) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$21.08 | 99% 853-7 (860) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$21.23 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Downavg 61.1¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 52% 371-344 (715) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 50.2¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 99¢ | $2.2K | $1.1K | $-1.1K | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 76.2¢ | $942.75 | — | -$933.63 | 44% 740-946 (1686) |
BO bosona | Upavg 98.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.0K | -$807.11 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
AL almach | Upavg 95.4¢ | $1.7K | $1.0K | -$709.46 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $945 | +$5.85 | 52% 3474-3256 (6730) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $467.5 | — | -$465.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $472.5 | $945 | +$471.2 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 10.2¢ | $255.78 | $929.07 | +$1.2K | 49% 2317-2371 (4688) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 74.3¢ | $965.11 | — | -$913.11 | 52% 5039-4741 (9780) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 10¢ | $61.47 | $611.99 | +$550.52 | 42% 1736-2377 (4113) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 64.2¢ | $697.62 | — | -$697.62 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 79.4¢ | $441.61 | $469.37 | +$85.77 | 63% 4099-2458 (6557) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 70.2¢ | $521.06 | — | -$501.47 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 51.9¢ | $583.29 | — | -$478.43 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 70.8¢ | $492.48 | — | -$492.48 | 46% 792-933 (1725) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 34.1¢ | $206.16 | $395.62 | +$193.6 | 44% 2131-2751 (4882) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 92.7¢ | $366.83 | $360.52 | -$6.26 | 67% 3477-1728 (5205) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 40.3¢ | $200.29 | $375 | +$174.7 | 41% 769-1117 (1886) |
Invested
$8,918
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$7.37
Record
55%
430-355 (785)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
42%
279-382 (661)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$46.25
Record
45%
563-700 (1263)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,893.48
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$77.87
Record
71%
1635-682 (2317)
Invested
$1,497.99
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
59%
1039-714 (1753)
Invested
$2,087.02
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$21.08
Record
99%
853-7 (860)
Invested
$1,501.77
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$21.23
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$1,206.02
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
52%
371-344 (715)
Invested
$1,041.46
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$2,202.66
Value
$1.1K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Invested
$942.75
Value
—
PnL
-$933.63
Record
44%
740-946 (1686)
Invested
$1,840.18
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$807.11
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
Invested
$1,731.01
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$709.46
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Invested
$950
Value
$945
PnL
+$5.85
Record
52%
3474-3256 (6730)
Both legs:
Invested
$255.78
Value
$929.07
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
49%
2317-2371 (4688)
Invested
$965.11
Value
—
PnL
-$913.11
Record
52%
5039-4741 (9780)
Invested
$61.47
Value
$611.99
PnL
+$550.52
Record
42%
1736-2377 (4113)
Invested
$697.62
Value
—
PnL
-$697.62
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
Invested
$441.61
Value
$469.37
PnL
+$85.77
Record
63%
4099-2458 (6557)
Invested
$521.06
Value
—
PnL
-$501.47
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
Invested
$583.29
Value
—
PnL
-$478.43
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Invested
$492.48
Value
—
PnL
-$492.48
Record
46%
792-933 (1725)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$206.16
Value
$395.62
PnL
+$193.6
Record
44%
2131-2751 (4882)
Invested
$366.83
Value
$360.52
PnL
-$6.26
Record
67%
3477-1728 (5205)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$200.29
Value
$375
PnL
+$174.7
Record
41%
769-1117 (1886)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
Up — $3.5K
BoneOhio
Up — $2.8K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $2.1K
hoodquant
Up — $1.5K
gansinimen
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
Up — $1.1K