Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Down 73%
2 arb excluded
$29.7K
$609.85
Smart Money Signal
38 of 52 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.5K | +$73.56 | 55% 430-355 (785) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$6.3 | 42% 279-382 (661) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.5K | +$11.88 | 45% 563-700 (1263) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$16.48 | 99% 853-7 (860) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$20.62 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
BO bosona | Downavg 90.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$100.45 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
AL almach | Downavg 94.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$62.85 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 89.3¢ | $914.72 | $1.0K | +$109.1 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 70.9¢ | $708.52 | $750.31 | +$41.79 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 77¢ | $567.57 | $733.29 | +$165.73 | 46% 1070-1239 (2309) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 54¢ | $459.07 | $520.87 | +$61.8 | 44% 740-946 (1686) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 53.9¢ | $648.11 | $484.81 | +$1.56 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 54.5¢ | $354.28 | $439.23 | +$84.95 | 46% 792-933 (1725) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64¢ | $356.28 | $416.23 | +$59.95 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 88.6¢ | $652.2 | $375.41 | -$43.92 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 42.2¢ | $465.1 | $317.79 | -$147.31 | 59% 1039-714 (1753) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.4¢ | $201.45 | $317.79 | +$116.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.2¢ | $263.64 | — | -$263.64 | |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 60.6¢ | $279.78 | $309.1 | +$43.89 | 52% 5039-4741 (9780) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 63.8¢ | $261.42 | $277.31 | +$15.89 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 65.8¢ | $202.23 | $255.1 | +$54.76 | 54% 4559-3961 (8520) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 96.8¢ | $234.58 | $242.44 | +$7.86 | 33% 1061-2196 (3257) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $141.12 | $155.95 | +$14.83 | 33% 706-1465 (2171) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 59.2¢ | $104.42 | $129.92 | +$34.14 | 41% 769-1117 (1886) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 54.5¢ | $125.05 | $151.91 | +$26.86 | 52% 878-815 (1693) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.5¢ | $82.75 | $151.91 | +$69.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.2¢ | $42.3 | — | -$42.3 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR | Upavg 42.2¢ | $105.68 | — | -$105.68 | 48% 2195-2413 (4608) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 96.9¢ | $103.58 | $106.9 | +$3.32 | 52% 2738-2492 (5230) |
Invested
$8,798
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$73.56
Record
55%
430-355 (785)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$6.3
Record
42%
279-382 (661)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$11.88
Record
45%
563-700 (1263)
Invested
$1,631.08
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$16.48
Record
99%
853-7 (860)
Invested
$1,521.38
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$20.62
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$1,026.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$100.45
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
Invested
$1,040.65
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$62.85
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Invested
$914.72
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$109.1
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Invested
$708.52
Value
$750.31
PnL
+$41.79
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
machinelearnedInvested
$567.57
Value
$733.29
PnL
+$165.73
Record
46%
1070-1239 (2309)
Invested
$459.07
Value
$520.87
PnL
+$61.8
Record
44%
740-946 (1686)
Invested
$648.11
Value
$484.81
PnL
+$1.56
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Invested
$354.28
Value
$439.23
PnL
+$84.95
Record
46%
792-933 (1725)
Invested
$356.28
Value
$416.23
PnL
+$59.95
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$652.2
Value
$375.41
PnL
-$43.92
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Invested
$465.1
Value
$317.79
PnL
-$147.31
Record
59%
1039-714 (1753)
Both legs:
Invested
$279.78
Value
$309.1
PnL
+$43.89
Record
52%
5039-4741 (9780)
Invested
$261.42
Value
$277.31
PnL
+$15.89
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
FairValueMachineInvested
$202.23
Value
$255.1
PnL
+$54.76
Record
54%
4559-3961 (8520)
pspspsps5Invested
$234.58
Value
$242.44
PnL
+$7.86
Record
33%
1061-2196 (3257)
Invested
$141.12
Value
$155.95
PnL
+$14.83
Record
33%
706-1465 (2171)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$104.42
Value
$129.92
PnL
+$34.14
Record
41%
769-1117 (1886)
Invested
$125.05
Value
$151.91
PnL
+$26.86
Record
52%
878-815 (1693)
Both legs:
Invested
$105.68
Value
—
PnL
-$105.68
Record
48%
2195-2413 (4608)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$103.58
Value
$106.9
PnL
+$3.32
Record
52%
2738-2492 (5230)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.5K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
machine-earning
Down — $3.5K
THG.
Down — $1.6K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
bosona
Down — $1.1K
almach
Down — $1.1K
mo-money
Down — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $750.31
machinelearned
Down — $733.29