Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Down 89%
$42.4K
$-3.5K
Smart Money Signal
48 of 54 top traders (89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $19.0K | $19.0K | +$19.01 | 52% 1415-1309 (2724) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | $8.8K | +$61.15 | 55% 430-355 (785) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 42% 279-382 (661) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | +$134.17 | 45% 563-700 (1263) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$22.87 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 77.6¢ | $790.38 | $1.0K | +$228.48 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
AL almach | Downavg 79.4¢ | $717.49 | $903.42 | +$185.93 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
BO bosona | Downavg 76.7¢ | $679.97 | $886.93 | +$206.96 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 92.7¢ | $499.37 | $538.53 | +$39.16 | 46% 1070-1239 (2309) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71.7¢ | $454.22 | $505.67 | +$51.45 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 72.4¢ | $378.56 | $510.68 | +$132.12 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $551.91 | $501.34 | +$7.79 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
SH Sharky6999 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $499.5 | $500 | +$0.5 | 88% 130-17 (147) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 83.3¢ | $374.84 | $450.11 | +$75.27 | 49% 2317-2371 (4688) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 68.1¢ | $317.68 | $384.16 | +$66.48 | 33% 706-1465 (2171) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 85.4¢ | $384.89 | $359.06 | -$25.83 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 73.5¢ | $344.9 | $346.02 | +$6.33 | 59% 1039-714 (1753) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 77.5¢ | $315.63 | $291.22 | -$24.41 | 44% 740-946 (1686) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 97.5¢ | $223.27 | $229.06 | +$5.79 | 52% 2738-2492 (5230) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 87.2¢ | $236.04 | $220.6 | -$15.44 | 51% 800-771 (1571) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 71.5¢ | $244.36 | $207.19 | +$15.04 | 52% 5039-4741 (9780) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 76.5¢ | $181.25 | $200 | +$18.75 | 52% 371-344 (715) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $110.96 | $143 | +$32.04 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 74.2¢ | $145.19 | $165 | +$19.81 | 44% 2131-2751 (4882) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 90¢ | $127.48 | $141.62 | +$14.14 | 33% 1061-2196 (3257) |
Invested
$18,994.01
Value
$19.0K
PnL
+$19.01
Record
52%
1415-1309 (2724)
Invested
$8,973
Value
$8.8K
PnL
+$61.15
Record
55%
430-355 (785)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
42%
279-382 (661)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$134.17
Record
45%
563-700 (1263)
Invested
$1,363.07
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$22.87
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$790.38
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$228.48
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Invested
$717.49
Value
$903.42
PnL
+$185.93
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Invested
$679.97
Value
$886.93
PnL
+$206.96
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
machinelearnedInvested
$499.37
Value
$538.53
PnL
+$39.16
Record
46%
1070-1239 (2309)
Invested
$454.22
Value
$505.67
PnL
+$51.45
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
Invested
$378.56
Value
$510.68
PnL
+$132.12
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$551.91
Value
$501.34
PnL
+$7.79
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Invested
$499.5
Value
$500
PnL
+$0.5
Record
88%
130-17 (147)
Invested
$374.84
Value
$450.11
PnL
+$75.27
Record
49%
2317-2371 (4688)
Invested
$317.68
Value
$384.16
PnL
+$66.48
Record
33%
706-1465 (2171)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$384.89
Value
$359.06
PnL
-$25.83
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Invested
$344.9
Value
$346.02
PnL
+$6.33
Record
59%
1039-714 (1753)
Invested
$315.63
Value
$291.22
PnL
-$24.41
Record
44%
740-946 (1686)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$223.27
Value
$229.06
PnL
+$5.79
Record
52%
2738-2492 (5230)
Invested
$236.04
Value
$220.6
PnL
-$15.44
Record
51%
800-771 (1571)
Invested
$244.36
Value
$207.19
PnL
+$15.04
Record
52%
5039-4741 (9780)
Invested
$181.25
Value
$200
PnL
+$18.75
Record
52%
371-344 (715)
Invested
$110.96
Value
$143
PnL
+$32.04
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$145.19
Value
$165
PnL
+$19.81
Record
44%
2131-2751 (4882)
pspspsps5Invested
$127.48
Value
$141.62
PnL
+$14.14
Record
33%
1061-2196 (3257)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $19.0K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.8K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.7K
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
mo-money
Down — $1.0K
almach
Down — $903.42
bosona
Down — $886.93
machinelearned
Down — $538.53
stepahead
Down — $505.67