Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$-10.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 49 top traders (61%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares12,531

Combined PnL$-12.1K

Down30 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares12,348

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Up — 39%Down — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.9K	42% 279-382 (661)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$84.58	45% 563-700 (1263)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 853-7 (860)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 58.3¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K	52% 5039-4741 (9780)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 18.9¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$1.2K	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 46.6¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.2K	59% 1039-714 (1753)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 53.4¢	$817.39	—	-$785.19	47% 1037-1165 (2202)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 61¢	$723.04	—	-$723.04	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 80.1¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.3K	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$606.12	$493.48	+$7.02	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$242.87	$493.48	+$251.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$248.86	—	-$244
AL almach	Downavg 84.4¢	$1.1K	$495.29	-$213.61	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 72.6¢	$766.69	$308.62	-$458.07	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$150.37	$308.62	+$158.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.6¢	$616.32	—	-$616.32
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 43.6¢	$347.18	$498.03	+$150.85	44% 740-946 (1686)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$408.74	$404.88	-$3.86	55% 4442-3611 (8053)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$230.32	—	-$230.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$178.42	$404.88	+$226.46
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 47.1¢	$296.51	$364.97	+$80.49	52% 878-815 (1693)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$250.26	$327.53	+$77.27	52% 371-344 (715)
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.8¢	$81.32	$327.53	+$246.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$168.94	—	-$168.94
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 33.1¢	$333.15	—	-$333.15	33% 706-1465 (2171)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 56.2¢	$271.49	$420.76	+$149.27	41% 769-1117 (1886)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 53¢	$365.41	$210.58	-$154.82	46% 792-933 (1725)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$78.61	$210.58	+$131.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$286.8	—	-$286.8
ohioism	Downavg 39.6¢	$193.77	$257.17	+$74.8	47% 2139-2368 (4507)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$282.51	$177.58	-$104.93	54% 4559-3961 (8520)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$98.29	$177.58	+$79.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$184.22	—	-$184.22
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 56.6¢	$294.4	—	-$294.4	28% 495-1271 (1766)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 41.4¢	$371.76	$181.02	+$19.37	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.1¢	$74.41	$181.02	+$124.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$116.62	—	-$104.94
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$212.73	$207.93	+$3.7	55% 430-355 (785)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$97.08	$207.93	+$110.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.3¢	$88.01	—	-$107.15
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 44.5¢	$191.95	$163.77	-$28.19	44% 2131-2751 (4882)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$75.82	$163.77	+$87.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$116.13	—	-$116.13

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

42%

279-382 (661)

machine-earning

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$84.58

Record

45%

563-700 (1263)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

853-7 (860)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$1,925.41

Value

—

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

52%

5039-4741 (9780)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,220.76

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$1,278.15

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

59%

1039-714 (1753)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$817.39

Value

—

PnL

-$785.19

Record

47%

1037-1165 (2202)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$723.04

Value

—

PnL

-$723.04

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$1,723.16

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

51%

4704-4511 (9215)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$606.12

Value

$493.48

PnL

+$7.02

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Down$242.8749.2¢+$251.02

Up$248.8649.4¢-$244

almach

Down

Invested

$1,100.19

Value

$495.29

PnL

-$213.61

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$766.69

Value

$308.62

PnL

-$458.07

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

Both legs:

Down$150.3748.7¢+$158.25

Up$616.3272.6¢-$616.32

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$347.18

Value

$498.03

PnL

+$150.85

Record

44%

740-946 (1686)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$408.74

Value

$404.88

PnL

-$3.86

Record

55%

4442-3611 (8053)

Both legs:

Up$230.3261.8¢-$230.32

Down$178.4244.1¢+$226.46

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$296.51

Value

$364.97

PnL

+$80.49

Record

52%

878-815 (1693)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$250.26

Value

$327.53

PnL

+$77.27

Record

52%

371-344 (715)

Both legs:

Down$81.3224.8¢+$246.21

Up$168.9447.8¢-$168.94

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$333.15

Value

—

PnL

-$333.15

Record

33%

706-1465 (2171)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$271.49

Value

$420.76

PnL

+$149.27

Record

41%

769-1117 (1886)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$365.41

Value

$210.58

PnL

-$154.82

Record

46%

792-933 (1725)

Both legs:

Down$78.6137.3¢+$131.97

Up$286.853¢-$286.8

ohioism

Down

Invested

$193.77

Value

$257.17

PnL

+$74.8

Record

47%

2139-2368 (4507)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$282.51

Value

$177.58

PnL

-$104.93

Record

54%

4559-3961 (8520)

Both legs:

Down$98.2955.4¢+$79.29

Up$184.2250.3¢-$184.22

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$294.4

Value

—

PnL

-$294.4

Record

28%

495-1271 (1766)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$371.76

Value

$181.02

PnL

+$19.37

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

Both legs:

Down$74.4141.1¢+$124.31

Up$116.6241.4¢-$104.94

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$212.73

Value

$207.93

PnL

+$3.7

Record

55%

430-355 (785)

Both legs:

Down$97.0846.7¢+$110.85

Up$88.0155.3¢-$107.15

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$191.95

Value

$163.77

PnL

-$28.19

Record

44%

2131-2751 (4882)

Both legs:

Down$75.8246.3¢+$87.95

Up$116.1344.5¢-$116.13

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 49 top traders (61%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xebf55b3f...26e79c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794701700

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Up — $0

$-4.9K

machine-earning

Down — $3.8K

+$84.58

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$35

blue.birds

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.9K

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.6K

Bonereaper

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

bosona

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded