Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Up 76%
1 arb excluded
$18.5K
$-2.3K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 51 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$0.5 | 42% 279-382 (661) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 563-700 (1263) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$18.13 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$13.64 | 99% 853-7 (860) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 81.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$233.44 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
AL almach | Upavg 85.5¢ | $892.4 | $1.0K | +$151.8 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0.73 | 52% 3474-3256 (6730) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $475 | $950 | +$475 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $472.58 | — | -$474.27 | |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 53¢ | $650.31 | $900.43 | +$250.12 | 59% 1039-714 (1753) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 93.4¢ | $719.96 | $690.34 | -$29.42 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 98.5¢ | $603.47 | $612.78 | +$9.31 | 42% 1736-2377 (4113) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 74.7¢ | $547.81 | $609.12 | +$61.61 | 44% 740-946 (1686) |
BO bosona | Upavg 79.1¢ | $496.38 | $627.76 | +$131.38 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.1¢ | $530.72 | $495.2 | +$9.46 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99¢ | $445.5 | $450 | +$4.5 | 52% 1415-1309 (2724) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 81.8¢ | $296.06 | $309.98 | +$13.93 | 46% 792-933 (1725) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 48.9¢ | $226.64 | $463.72 | +$237.08 | 51% 1932-1885 (3817) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 60.8¢ | $182.01 | $213.53 | +$31.51 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 98.7¢ | $194.37 | $197 | +$2.63 | 38% 1469-2355 (3824) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 79.7¢ | $164.68 | $193.65 | +$28.97 | 52% 5039-4741 (9780) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 53.7¢ | $150.6 | $174.58 | +$31.15 | 52% 878-815 (1693) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $167.02 | $168.71 | +$1.69 | 71% 1635-682 (2317) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 98.6¢ | $171.43 | $140 | -$31.43 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 50¢ | $125 | $250 | +$125 | 51% 990-949 (1939) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 96.8¢ | $110.72 | $114.4 | +$3.68 | 33% 1061-2196 (3257) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 98.2¢ | $97.3 | $99.11 | +$1.81 | 52% 2738-2492 (5230) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$0.5
Record
42%
279-382 (661)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
563-700 (1263)
Invested
$1,525.87
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$18.13
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$1,350.24
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.64
Record
99%
853-7 (860)
Invested
$1,001.42
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$233.44
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Invested
$892.4
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$151.8
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0.73
Record
52%
3474-3256 (6730)
Both legs:
Invested
$650.31
Value
$900.43
PnL
+$250.12
Record
59%
1039-714 (1753)
Invested
$719.96
Value
$690.34
PnL
-$29.42
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$603.47
Value
$612.78
PnL
+$9.31
Record
42%
1736-2377 (4113)
Invested
$547.81
Value
$609.12
PnL
+$61.61
Record
44%
740-946 (1686)
Invested
$496.38
Value
$627.76
PnL
+$131.38
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
Invested
$530.72
Value
$495.2
PnL
+$9.46
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Invested
$445.5
Value
$450
PnL
+$4.5
Record
52%
1415-1309 (2724)
Invested
$296.06
Value
$309.98
PnL
+$13.93
Record
46%
792-933 (1725)
Invested
$226.64
Value
$463.72
PnL
+$237.08
Record
51%
1932-1885 (3817)
Invested
$182.01
Value
$213.53
PnL
+$31.51
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$194.37
Value
$197
PnL
+$2.63
Record
38%
1469-2355 (3824)
Invested
$164.68
Value
$193.65
PnL
+$28.97
Record
52%
5039-4741 (9780)
Invested
$150.6
Value
$174.58
PnL
+$31.15
Record
52%
878-815 (1693)
BoneOhioInvested
$167.02
Value
$168.71
PnL
+$1.69
Record
71%
1635-682 (2317)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$171.43
Value
$140
PnL
-$31.43
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Invested
$125
Value
$250
PnL
+$125
Record
51%
990-949 (1939)
pspspsps5Invested
$110.72
Value
$114.4
PnL
+$3.68
Record
33%
1061-2196 (3257)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$97.3
Value
$99.11
PnL
+$1.81
Record
52%
2738-2492 (5230)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $1.5K
THG.
Up — $1.4K
mo-money
Up — $1.2K
almach
Up — $1.0K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Up — $900.43
CrouchPredictions
Up — $690.34
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $612.78