Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Down 85%
3 arb excluded
$31.2K
$-4.0K
Smart Money Signal
46 of 54 top traders (85%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$9.01 | 52% 1415-1309 (2724) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 99.8¢ | $8.5K | $8.5K | +$18.04 | 60% 70-46 (116) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 42% 279-382 (661) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$57.93 | 45% 563-700 (1263) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$23.13 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.7¢ | $797.2 | $800 | +$2.8 | 50% 1577-1608 (3185) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 64.6¢ | $588.45 | $701.01 | +$116.06 | 59% 1039-714 (1753) |
AL almach | Downavg 84¢ | $639.76 | $705.99 | +$66.24 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 65.6¢ | $721.3 | $679.49 | -$41.8 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $545.3 | $503.13 | +$6.75 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $252.79 | $503.13 | +$253.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $244.29 | — | -$246.59 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 61.2¢ | $408.23 | $467.33 | +$59.09 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $405.86 | $784.09 | +$378.23 | 51% 1932-1885 (3817) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 78.7¢ | $361.75 | $459.41 | +$97.65 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 96.7¢ | $391.01 | $389.09 | -$1.92 | 46% 1070-1239 (2309) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 66¢ | $339.28 | $407.4 | +$68.11 | 44% 740-946 (1686) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 77¢ | $237.21 | $252.2 | +$14.99 | 52% 5039-4741 (9780) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 75.6¢ | $176.98 | $185.61 | +$13.88 | 52% 878-815 (1693) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 87.6¢ | $208.99 | $165 | -$43.99 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
 ohioism | Downavg 68.8¢ | $140.41 | $196.46 | +$56.05 | 47% 2139-2368 (4507) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $126 | $240 | +$114 | 56% 307-237 (544) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 65¢ | $89.42 | $133.65 | +$44.23 | 33% 706-1465 (2171) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 47.6¢ | $108.66 | — | -$108.66 | 50% 832-828 (1660) |
BO bosona | Downavg 53.9¢ | $120.41 | $223.23 | +$102.83 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 56.2¢ | $107.55 | $106.58 | +$45.03 | 52% 371-344 (715) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 74¢ | $100.99 | $100 | -$0.99 | 44% 2131-2751 (4882) |
Invested
$8,997.01
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$9.01
Record
52%
1415-1309 (2724)
Invested
$8,502.18
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$18.04
Record
60%
70-46 (116)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
42%
279-382 (661)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$57.93
Record
45%
563-700 (1263)
Invested
$1,390.87
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$23.13
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$797.2
Value
$800
PnL
+$2.8
Record
50%
1577-1608 (3185)
Invested
$588.45
Value
$701.01
PnL
+$116.06
Record
59%
1039-714 (1753)
Invested
$639.76
Value
$705.99
PnL
+$66.24
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Invested
$721.3
Value
$679.49
PnL
-$41.8
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$545.3
Value
$503.13
PnL
+$6.75
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Both legs:
Invested
$408.23
Value
$467.33
PnL
+$59.09
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
Invested
$405.86
Value
$784.09
PnL
+$378.23
Record
51%
1932-1885 (3817)
Invested
$361.75
Value
$459.41
PnL
+$97.65
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
machinelearnedInvested
$391.01
Value
$389.09
PnL
-$1.92
Record
46%
1070-1239 (2309)
Invested
$339.28
Value
$407.4
PnL
+$68.11
Record
44%
740-946 (1686)
Invested
$237.21
Value
$252.2
PnL
+$14.99
Record
52%
5039-4741 (9780)
Invested
$176.98
Value
$185.61
PnL
+$13.88
Record
52%
878-815 (1693)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$208.99
Value
$165
PnL
-$43.99
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
ohioismInvested
$140.41
Value
$196.46
PnL
+$56.05
Record
47%
2139-2368 (4507)
Invested
$126
Value
$240
PnL
+$114
Record
56%
307-237 (544)
Invested
$89.42
Value
$133.65
PnL
+$44.23
Record
33%
706-1465 (2171)
Invested
$108.66
Value
—
PnL
-$108.66
Record
50%
832-828 (1660)
Invested
$120.41
Value
$223.23
PnL
+$102.83
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
Invested
$107.55
Value
$106.58
PnL
+$45.03
Record
52%
371-344 (715)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$100.99
Value
$100
PnL
-$0.99
Record
44%
2131-2751 (4882)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $8.5K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $800
Bonereaper
Down — $701.01
almach
Down — $705.99
CrouchPredictions
Down — $679.49
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded