Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

$-10.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 51 top traders (73%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares13,731

Combined PnL$-11.5K

Down37 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares15,949

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Up — 27%Down — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-5.0K	42% 279-382 (661)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-4.0K	45% 563-700 (1263)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 853-7 (860)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$17	51% 1932-1885 (3817)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$143.28	59% 1039-714 (1753)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.7¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$615.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.1¢	$471.87	—	-$471.87
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$18	98% 3857-81 (3938)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 53.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$71.08	47% 1037-1165 (2202)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$870.01	+$8.66	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$435	$870.01	+$469.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$447.08	—	-$460.64
AL almach	Downavg 67.3¢	$720.92	$1.0K	+$313.98	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 42.6¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.1K	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 73.7¢	$803.85	$673.47	-$33.38	52% 5039-4741 (9780)
MO mo-money	Downavg 64.9¢	$564.72	$867.23	+$302.51	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 69.9¢	$633.92	$596.51	-$37.41	52% 371-344 (715)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 60.6¢	$529.94	$588.43	+$58.49	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 68.5¢	$557.82	$580.14	+$22.94	52% 878-815 (1693)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$554.48	$563.71	+$9.23	55% 4442-3611 (8053)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.2¢	$373.14	$563.71	+$190.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$181.35	—	-$181.35
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 72.8¢	$608.24	$522.34	-$85.9	44% 740-946 (1686)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.8¢	$380.44	$522.34	+$141.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.9¢	$227.79	—	-$227.79
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$525.34	$516.98	-$8.36	54% 4559-3961 (8520)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.7¢	$339.59	$516.98	+$177.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.1¢	$185.75	—	-$185.75
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.6¢	$554.38	$493.13	+$2.17	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.6¢	$254.47	$493.13	+$249.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$236.74	—	-$247.41
BO bosona	Downavg 51.6¢	$377.54	$731.25	+$353.71	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$465.16	$350.42	-$114.74	46% 792-933 (1725)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.9¢	$266.11	$350.42	+$84.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$199.05	—	-$199.05
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 95.3¢	$383.1	$402	+$18.9	60% 70-46 (116)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 62.1¢	$353.22	$386.47	+$33.25	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 92.4¢	$797.88	$263	-$1.13	33% 706-1465 (2171)
LI Little-big	Downavg 57.8¢	$143.6	$248.6	+$105	51% 990-949 (1939)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

42%

279-382 (661)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

45%

563-700 (1263)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

853-7 (860)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$1,682.81

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$17

Record

51%

1932-1885 (3817)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,652.05

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$143.28

Record

59%

1039-714 (1753)

Both legs:

Down$1,180.1865.7¢+$615.15

Up$471.8735.1¢-$471.87

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,407

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$18

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,110.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$71.08

Record

47%

1037-1165 (2202)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$870.01

PnL

+$8.66

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

Both legs:

Invested

$720.92

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$313.98

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$2,544.79

Value

—

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$803.85

Value

$673.47

PnL

-$33.38

Record

52%

5039-4741 (9780)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$564.72

Value

$867.23

PnL

+$302.51

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$633.92

Value

$596.51

PnL

-$37.41

Record

52%

371-344 (715)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$529.94

Value

$588.43

PnL

+$58.49

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$557.82

Value

$580.14

PnL

+$22.94

Record

52%

878-815 (1693)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$554.48

Value

$563.71

PnL

+$9.23

Record

55%

4442-3611 (8053)

Both legs:

Down$373.1466.2¢+$190.58

Up$181.3530.2¢-$181.35

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$608.24

Value

$522.34

PnL

-$85.9

Record

44%

740-946 (1686)

Both legs:

Down$380.4472.8¢+$141.89

Up$227.7932.9¢-$227.79

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$525.34

Value

$516.98

PnL

-$8.36

Record

54%

4559-3961 (8520)

Both legs:

Down$339.5965.7¢+$177.39

Up$185.7535.1¢-$185.75

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$554.38

Value

$493.13

PnL

+$2.17

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Down$254.4751.6¢+$249.59

Up$236.7448.2¢-$247.41

bosona

Down

Invested

$377.54

Value

$731.25

PnL

+$353.71

Record

51%

4704-4511 (9215)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$465.16

Value

$350.42

PnL

-$114.74

Record

46%

792-933 (1725)

Both legs:

Down$266.1175.9¢+$84.31

Up$199.0532¢-$199.05

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$383.1

Value

$402

PnL

+$18.9

Record

60%

70-46 (116)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$353.22

Value

$386.47

PnL

+$33.25

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$797.88

Value

$263

PnL

-$1.13

Record

33%

706-1465 (2171)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$143.6

Value

$248.6

PnL

+$105

Record

51%

990-949 (1939)

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 51 top traders (73%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xdb47c3fd...545eee

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794700800

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$35

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.7K

+$17

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$143.28

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$18

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.2K

+$71.08

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$8.66

almach

Down — $1.0K

uninformedfloww

Up — $0