Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

28 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.1K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 41 top traders (68%)28 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down28 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares9,320

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,144

Combined PnL-$690.56

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.6K	-$127.36	42% 279-382 (661)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.3K	—	$-2.4K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.3K	$4.6K	+$2.3K
BO borderlocket	Downavg 53.4¢	$2.3K	$4.2K	+$2.0K	32% 65-141 (206)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.2K	-$213.63	45% 563-700 (1263)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.8K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.6K	$3.2K	+$1.6K
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16.38	59% 1039-714 (1753)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$660.58	—	-$660.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.2¢	$1.0K	$1.7K	+$676.96
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 61.1¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$177.03	26% 280-778 (1058)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$713.29	—	-$713.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.1¢	$841.31	$1.4K	+$536.26
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$83.82	44% 740-946 (1686)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.1¢	$478.05	—	-$478.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.7¢	$692.77	$1.1K	+$394.23
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 55.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$8.65	52% 371-344 (715)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$488.22	—	-$488.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.6¢	$622.84	$1.1K	+$496.87
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$30.97	47% 1037-1165 (2202)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$847.31	$1.3K	+$461.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$430.65	—	-$430.65
BL blue.birds	Downavg 65.4¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$62.79	52% 5039-4741 (9780)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$914	+$32.16	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$457	$914	+$454.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$415.97	—	-$422.24
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 64.3¢	$868.54	$795.71	-$72.84	46% 792-933 (1725)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38¢	$357.13	—	-$357.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.3¢	$511.41	$795.71	+$284.29
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 56¢	$802.88	$813.57	+$10.69	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$347.16	—	-$347.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$455.72	$813.57	+$357.85
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$1.8K	$782.26	-$311.83	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.9¢	$374.72	—	-$363.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.9¢	$601.42	$782.26	+$51.78
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 95.1¢	$863.13	$650	-$211.67	60% 70-46 (116)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 55.2¢	$670.47	$614.21	-$56.26	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$331.47	—	-$331.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.2¢	$339	$614.21	+$275.21
BO bosona	Downavg 80.4¢	$1.6K	$643.75	-$174.71	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$576.38	$703.44	+$127.06	55% 4442-3611 (8053)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$371.71	$703.44	+$331.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.6¢	$204.68	—	-$204.68
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$1.3K	$623.99	+$109.71	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$388.03	$623.99	+$201.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.6¢	$189.99	—	-$91.42
0X 0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118	Downavg 64.1¢	$384.56	$599.98	+$215.43	44% 15-19 (34)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 86.7¢	$1.4K	$807.04	-$7.06	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.7¢	$699.99	$807.04	+$58.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$90.76	—	-$65.35
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$594.38	$499	+$6.86	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.9¢	$259.01	$499	+$246.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.1¢	$226.21	—	-$239.65
FairValueMachine	Downavg 56¢	$254.24	$327.09	+$106.5	54% 4559-3961 (8520)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Upavg 44.5¢	$481.09	—	-$372.16	27% 110-291 (401)
NIULAI4	Downavg 73.3¢	$382.97	$522.74	+$139.76	28% 495-1271 (1766)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$264.34	$336.78	+$72.44	52% 878-815 (1693)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.6¢	$204.01	$336.78	+$132.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.9¢	$60.32	—	-$60.32

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$127.36

Record

42%

279-382 (661)

Both legs:

Up$2,295.5750¢$-2.4K

Down$2,295.5750¢+$2.3K

borderlocket

Down

Invested

$2,253.16

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

32%

65-141 (206)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$213.63

Record

45%

563-700 (1263)

Both legs:

Up$1,599.7550¢$-1.8K

Down$1,599.7550¢+$1.6K

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,683.94

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.38

Record

59%

1039-714 (1753)

Both legs:

Up$660.5837¢-$660.58

Down$1,023.3560.2¢+$676.96

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,554.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$177.03

Record

26%

280-778 (1058)

Both legs:

Up$713.2940.4¢-$713.29

Down$841.3161.1¢+$536.26

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,170.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$83.82

Record

44%

740-946 (1686)

Both legs:

Up$478.0540.1¢-$478.05

Down$692.7763.7¢+$394.23

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,111.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$8.65

Record

52%

371-344 (715)

Both legs:

Up$488.2242.7¢-$488.22

Down$622.8455.6¢+$496.87

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,277.96

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$30.97

Record

47%

1037-1165 (2202)

Both legs:

Down$847.3164.7¢+$461.62

Up$430.6546.5¢-$430.65

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$1,208.82

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$62.79

Record

52%

5039-4741 (9780)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$914

PnL

+$32.16

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

Both legs:

Invested

$868.54

Value

$795.71

PnL

-$72.84

Record

46%

792-933 (1725)

Both legs:

Up$357.1338¢-$357.13

Down$511.4164.3¢+$284.29

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$802.88

Value

$813.57

PnL

+$10.69

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

Both legs:

Up$347.1642.7¢-$347.16

Down$455.7256¢+$357.85

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,805.01

Value

$782.26

PnL

-$311.83

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

Both legs:

Up$374.7247.9¢-$363.6

Down$601.4276.9¢+$51.78

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$863.13

Value

$650

PnL

-$211.67

Record

60%

70-46 (116)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$670.47

Value

$614.21

PnL

-$56.26

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

Both legs:

Up$331.4748.7¢-$331.47

Down$33955.2¢+$275.21

bosona

Down

Invested

$1,586.89

Value

$643.75

PnL

-$174.71

Record

51%

4704-4511 (9215)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$576.38

Value

$703.44

PnL

+$127.06

Record

55%

4442-3611 (8053)

Both legs:

Down$371.7152.8¢+$331.73

Up$204.6836.6¢-$204.68

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,285.36

Value

$623.99

PnL

+$109.71

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

Both legs:

Down$388.0362.2¢+$201.13

Up$189.9932.6¢-$91.42

0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118

Down

Invested

$384.56

Value

$599.98

PnL

+$215.43

Record

44%

15-19 (34)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,369.41

Value

$807.04

PnL

-$7.06

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

Both legs:

Down$699.9986.7¢+$58.3

Up$90.7644.5¢-$65.35

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$594.38

Value

$499

PnL

+$6.86

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Down$259.0151.9¢+$246.51

Up$226.2148.1¢-$239.65

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$254.24

Value

$327.09

PnL

+$106.5

Record

54%

4559-3961 (8520)

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Invested

$481.09

Value

—

PnL

-$372.16

Record

27%

110-291 (401)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$382.97

Value

$522.74

PnL

+$139.76

Record

28%

495-1271 (1766)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$264.34

Value

$336.78

PnL

+$72.44

Record

52%

878-815 (1693)

Both legs:

Down$204.0160.6¢+$132.77

Up$60.3236.9¢-$60.32

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 41 top traders (68%)28 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbdfe7e0f...e378de

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794700500

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$127.36

borderlocket

Down — $4.2K

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Down — $1.0K

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded