Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Up 83%
2 arb excluded
$15.3K
$-7.8K
Smart Money Signal
43 of 52 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-5.0K | 42% 279-382 (661) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-4.0K | 45% 563-700 (1263) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 853-7 (860) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$1.54 | 52% 1415-1309 (2724) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$17.67 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 65.8¢ | $944.83 | $1.0K | +$95.39 | 59% 1039-714 (1753) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 76.1¢ | $854.16 | $1.0K | +$162.3 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 77.9¢ | $710.36 | $912.19 | +$201.83 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
BO bosona | Upavg 77.1¢ | $737.54 | $956.21 | +$218.67 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
AL almach | Upavg 78.3¢ | $699.56 | $892.94 | +$193.37 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 54.5¢ | $592.59 | $503.86 | +$13.53 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 84.8¢ | $407.04 | $411.77 | +$4.73 | 52% 5039-4741 (9780) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 83¢ | $607.91 | $375.46 | -$11.99 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 65.9¢ | $323.21 | $372.61 | +$49.4 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 70.2¢ | $318.65 | $340.57 | +$21.92 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 80.4¢ | $247.34 | $238.52 | -$8.81 | 52% 878-815 (1693) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 86.5¢ | $212.04 | $209.91 | -$2.12 | 44% 740-946 (1686) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 70.9¢ | $152.85 | $169.27 | +$16.41 | 33% 706-1465 (2171) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 55¢ | $67.2 | $122.18 | +$54.98 | 49% 2317-2371 (4688) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 88.9¢ | $101.85 | $104.63 | +$2.77 | 52% 874-813 (1687) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $90.35 | $100 | +$9.65 | 52% 371-344 (715) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66¢ | $66 | $100 | +$34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24¢ | $24.35 | — | -$24.35 | |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 88.5¢ | $98.76 | $104.36 | +$5.6 | 54% 4559-3961 (8520) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 77.4¢ | $104.7 | $95.64 | +$13.44 | 58% 5031-3699 (8730) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Upavg 89.6¢ | $86.8 | $96.93 | +$10.13 | 46% 709-840 (1549) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 94.4¢ | $90.64 | $96 | +$5.36 | 38% 1469-2355 (3824) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
42%
279-382 (661)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.0K
Record
45%
563-700 (1263)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
853-7 (860)
Invested
$1,542.69
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.54
Record
52%
1415-1309 (2724)
Invested
$1,024.82
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$17.67
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$944.83
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$95.39
Record
59%
1039-714 (1753)
Invested
$854.16
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$162.3
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$710.36
Value
$912.19
PnL
+$201.83
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Invested
$737.54
Value
$956.21
PnL
+$218.67
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
Invested
$699.56
Value
$892.94
PnL
+$193.37
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Invested
$592.59
Value
$503.86
PnL
+$13.53
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Invested
$407.04
Value
$411.77
PnL
+$4.73
Record
52%
5039-4741 (9780)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$607.91
Value
$375.46
PnL
-$11.99
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Invested
$323.21
Value
$372.61
PnL
+$49.4
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
Invested
$318.65
Value
$340.57
PnL
+$21.92
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
Invested
$247.34
Value
$238.52
PnL
-$8.81
Record
52%
878-815 (1693)
Invested
$212.04
Value
$209.91
PnL
-$2.12
Record
44%
740-946 (1686)
Invested
$152.85
Value
$169.27
PnL
+$16.41
Record
33%
706-1465 (2171)
Invested
$67.2
Value
$122.18
PnL
+$54.98
Record
49%
2317-2371 (4688)
Invested
$101.85
Value
$104.63
PnL
+$2.77
Record
52%
874-813 (1687)
Invested
$90.35
Value
$100
PnL
+$9.65
Record
52%
371-344 (715)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$98.76
Value
$104.36
PnL
+$5.6
Record
54%
4559-3961 (8520)
Invested
$104.7
Value
$95.64
PnL
+$13.44
Record
58%
5031-3699 (8730)
Invested
$86.8
Value
$96.93
PnL
+$10.13
Record
46%
709-840 (1549)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$90.64
Value
$96
PnL
+$5.36
Record
38%
1469-2355 (3824)