Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Up 75%
2 arb excluded
$25.6K
$782.6
Smart Money Signal
43 of 57 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | -$3.81 | 42% 279-382 (661) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $2.5K | $5.0K | +$2.5K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $2.5K | — | $-2.5K | |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.5K | -$36.5 | 45% 563-700 (1263) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.8K | $3.5K | +$1.8K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.8K | |
BO borderlocket | Upavg 53.9¢ | $1.6K | $2.9K | +$1.3K | 32% 65-141 (206) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 57.1¢ | $926.89 | $1.6K | +$695.24 | 26% 280-778 (1058) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 93¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$39.37 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 97.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$31.4 | 42% 1736-2377 (4113) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$13.54 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 88.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$149.66 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
AL almach | Upavg 95.2¢ | $1.2K | $999.99 | -$182.23 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0.25 | 52% 3474-3256 (6730) |
BO bosona | Upavg 95.8¢ | $1.3K | $827.93 | -$168.05 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 72.8¢ | $832.67 | $789.31 | -$43.37 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 95¢ | $570.15 | $600 | +$29.85 | 46% 1070-1239 (2309) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.5¢ | $532.48 | $500.94 | -$9.09 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 86.8¢ | $422.42 | $426.87 | +$4.45 | 52% 371-344 (715) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Upavg 63.4¢ | $234.17 | $369.38 | +$135.2 | 27% 110-291 (401) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 81.6¢ | $382.72 | $358.85 | -$23.86 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 79.1¢ | $650.28 | $280 | -$70.19 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 93.6¢ | $331.95 | $272.16 | -$59.79 | 33% 706-1465 (2171) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72.5¢ | $230.61 | $247.04 | +$16.43 | 52% 5039-4741 (9780) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 7.8¢ | $47.02 | — | -$47.02 | 52% 1415-1309 (2724) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 74.2¢ | $258.93 | $181.79 | -$21.78 | 59% 1039-714 (1753) |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 77.4¢ | $229.84 | $170 | -$49.35 | 56% 307-237 (544) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 94¢ | $141.33 | $150.32 | +$8.99 | 38% 1469-2355 (3824) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 38¢ | $216.78 | — | -$216.78 | 44% 740-946 (1686) |
arcsine-barristerARB<$100Invested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$3.81
Record
42%
279-382 (661)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$36.5
Record
45%
563-700 (1263)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,555
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
32%
65-141 (206)
AtomforgeInvested
$926.89
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$695.24
Record
26%
280-778 (1058)
Invested
$1,302.59
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$39.37
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Invested
$1,181.6
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$31.4
Record
42%
1736-2377 (4113)
Invested
$1,125.46
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$13.54
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$1,168.63
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$149.66
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$1,182.22
Value
$999.99
PnL
-$182.23
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
3474-3256 (6730)
Invested
$1,339.71
Value
$827.93
PnL
-$168.05
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
Invested
$832.67
Value
$789.31
PnL
-$43.37
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
machinelearnedInvested
$570.15
Value
$600
PnL
+$29.85
Record
46%
1070-1239 (2309)
Invested
$532.48
Value
$500.94
PnL
-$9.09
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Invested
$422.42
Value
$426.87
PnL
+$4.45
Record
52%
371-344 (715)
Invested
$234.17
Value
$369.38
PnL
+$135.2
Record
27%
110-291 (401)
Invested
$382.72
Value
$358.85
PnL
-$23.86
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$650.28
Value
$280
PnL
-$70.19
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Invested
$331.95
Value
$272.16
PnL
-$59.79
Record
33%
706-1465 (2171)
Invested
$230.61
Value
$247.04
PnL
+$16.43
Record
52%
5039-4741 (9780)
Invested
$47.02
Value
—
PnL
-$47.02
Record
52%
1415-1309 (2724)
Invested
$258.93
Value
$181.79
PnL
-$21.78
Record
59%
1039-714 (1753)
Invested
$229.84
Value
$170
PnL
-$49.35
Record
56%
307-237 (544)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$141.33
Value
$150.32
PnL
+$8.99
Record
38%
1469-2355 (3824)
Invested
$216.78
Value
—
PnL
-$216.78
Record
44%
740-946 (1686)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
borderlocket
Up — $2.9K
Atomforge
Up — $1.6K
mo-money
Up — $1.3K
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $1.2K
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.0K
almach
Up — $999.99
soswald1
Up — $950