Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.7K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Signal

30 of 40 top traders (75%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up30 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares12,633

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,598

Combined PnL-$793.87

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$61.84	42% 279-382 (661)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.4K	$4.9K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.3K	—	$-2.4K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	+$239.06	45% 563-700 (1263)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.8K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.6K
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.3	99% 853-7 (860)
AL almach	Upavg 67.3¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$447.45	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$908.88	$1.1K	+$193.68	47% 1037-1165 (2202)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$557.12	$1.1K	+$545.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.8¢	$351.76	—	-$351.76
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98¢	$936.85	$956.22	+$19.37	98% 3857-81 (3938)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$940	+$26.13	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$470	$940	+$472
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$447.59	—	-$445.87
MO mo-money	Upavg 58.7¢	$756.73	$1.2K	+$436.62	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 58.5¢	$789.86	$831.33	+$47.71	59% 1039-714 (1753)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 40.3¢	$444.57	$1.1K	+$657.37	51% 1932-1885 (3817)
BO bosona	Upavg 59.7¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	+$328.18	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 56¢	$578.41	$712.35	+$133.94	33% 706-1465 (2171)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$399.13	$712.35	+$313.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$179.28	—	-$179.28
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$588.62	$704.72	+$116.1	44% 740-946 (1686)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$342.82	$704.72	+$361.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.3¢	$245.81	—	-$245.81
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$461.23	$553.77	+$92.54	55% 4442-3611 (8053)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.6¢	$285.99	$553.77	+$267.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.8¢	$175.24	—	-$175.24
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51.3¢	$613.66	$495.72	+$21.31	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.3¢	$254.19	$495.72	+$263.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$241.19	—	-$242.55
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 55¢	$425.05	$450.23	+$55.68	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 59.1¢	$308.92	$437.49	+$128.57	46% 792-933 (1725)
BO borderlocket	Upavg 62.5¢	$203.08	$324.8	+$121.72	32% 65-141 (206)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 49.5¢	$182.84	$288.98	+$106.14	50% 780-775 (1555)
PB PBot-5	Upavg 55.3¢	$153.54	$236.03	+$84.04	49% 1304-1382 (2686)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$238.01	$247.24	+$9.23	46% 1070-1239 (2309)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.6¢	$112.81	$247.24	+$134.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.2¢	$125.19	—	-$125.19
BL blue.birds	Upavg 64.9¢	$239.77	$218.89	+$35.84	52% 5039-4741 (9780)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 55.5¢	$145.37	$167.46	+$37.6	54% 4559-3961 (8520)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$134.8	$184.55	+$49.75	52% 371-344 (715)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.8¢	$123.24	$184.55	+$61.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.8¢	$11.56	—	-$11.56
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$221.22	$148.47	+$37.88	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$75.23	$148.47	+$72.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 27¢	$48.58	—	-$34.51

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$61.84

Record

42%

279-382 (661)

Both legs:

Up$2,437.550¢+$2.5K

Down$2,260.0150¢$-2.4K

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$239.06

Record

45%

563-700 (1263)

Both legs:

Up$1,820.8250¢+$1.8K

Down$1,436.0450¢$-1.6K

THG.

Invested

$2,901.03

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$29.3

Record

99%

853-7 (860)

almach

Invested

$1,051.91

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$447.45

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$908.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$193.68

Record

47%

1037-1165 (2202)

Both legs:

Up$557.1250.5¢+$545.44

Down$351.7650.8¢-$351.76

hoodquant

Invested

$936.85

Value

$956.22

PnL

+$19.37

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$940

PnL

+$26.13

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

Both legs:

Up$47050¢+$472

Down$447.5950¢-$445.87

mo-money

Invested

$756.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$436.62

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

Bonereaper

Invested

$789.86

Value

$831.33

PnL

+$47.71

Record

59%

1039-714 (1753)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$444.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$657.37

Record

51%

1932-1885 (3817)

bosona

Invested

$1,271.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$328.18

Record

51%

4704-4511 (9215)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$578.41

Value

$712.35

PnL

+$133.94

Record

33%

706-1465 (2171)

Both legs:

Up$399.1356¢+$313.22

Down$179.2828¢-$179.28

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$588.62

Value

$704.72

PnL

+$116.1

Record

44%

740-946 (1686)

Both legs:

Up$342.8248.6¢+$361.91

Down$245.8142.3¢-$245.81

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$461.23

Value

$553.77

PnL

+$92.54

Record

55%

4442-3611 (8053)

Both legs:

Up$285.9951.6¢+$267.78

Down$175.2443.8¢-$175.24

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$613.66

Value

$495.72

PnL

+$21.31

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Up$254.1951.3¢+$263.86

Down$241.1949.2¢-$242.55

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$425.05

Value

$450.23

PnL

+$55.68

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

GoodFallen

Invested

$308.92

Value

$437.49

PnL

+$128.57

Record

46%

792-933 (1725)

borderlocket

Invested

$203.08

Value

$324.8

PnL

+$121.72

Record

32%

65-141 (206)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$182.84

Value

$288.98

PnL

+$106.14

Record

50%

780-775 (1555)

PBot-5

Invested

$153.54

Value

$236.03

PnL

+$84.04

Record

49%

1304-1382 (2686)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$238.01

Value

$247.24

PnL

+$9.23

Record

46%

1070-1239 (2309)

Both legs:

Up$112.8145.6¢+$134.43

Down$125.1964.2¢-$125.19

blue.birds

Invested

$239.77

Value

$218.89

PnL

+$35.84

Record

52%

5039-4741 (9780)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$145.37

Value

$167.46

PnL

+$37.6

Record

54%

4559-3961 (8520)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$134.8

Value

$184.55

PnL

+$49.75

Record

52%

371-344 (715)

Both legs:

Up$123.2466.8¢+$61.31

Down$11.5610.8¢-$11.56

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$221.22

Value

$148.47

PnL

+$37.88

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

Both legs:

Up$75.2350.7¢+$72.39

Down$48.5827¢-$34.51

Smart Money Signal

30 of 40 top traders (75%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6ed7144e...fb2d93

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794699600

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Up — $2.9K

+$29.3

almach

Up — $1.5K

+$447.45

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$193.68

hoodquant

Up — $956.22

+$19.37

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$26.13

mo-money

Up — $1.2K

+$436.62

Bonereaper

Up — $831.33

+$47.71

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.1K

+$657.37

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