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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

32 of 43 top Polymarket traders hold Down (74%) · Down at 80¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 14

Up21¢Down79¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket
SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

43

Down 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

-$112.92

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 79.5¢

+45% since entry · 32 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

  • Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

32 of 43 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up21%
Down80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down32 traders
Total Value$13.6K
Total Shares14,290
Combined PnL+$403.99
Up11 traders
Total Value$719.99
Total Shares3,296
Combined PnL-$516.91
Down — 74%Up — 26%
arcsine-barrister
Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

279-382 (661)

MA
machine-earning
Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

563-700 (1263)

SO
soswald1
Down

Invested

$950

Value

$948.69

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

UN
uninformedfloww
Down

Invested

$848.4

Value

$878.12

PnL

+$29.72

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR
Up

Invested

$1,098.2

Value

$596.56

PnL

-$501.64

Record

51%

1932-1885 (3817)

BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$509

Value

$504.95

PnL

+$1.95

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Down$25950.3¢+$83.48
Up$242.550¢-$81.52
DA
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down

Invested

$333.78

Value

$401.4

PnL

+$72.6

Record

44%

740-946 (1686)

CR
CrouchPredictions
Down

Invested

$351.06

Value

$376.75

PnL

+$25.69

Record

47%

1037-1165 (2202)

BO
Bonereaper
Down

Invested

$333.86

Value

$360.66

PnL

+$38.63

Record

59%

1039-714 (1753)

ST
stepahead
Down

Invested

$168.14

Value

$210.78

PnL

+$42.63

Record

55%

4442-3611 (8053)

BL
blue.birds
Down

Invested

$139

Value

$179.5

PnL

+$40.5

Record

52%

5039-4741 (9780)

GO
GoodFallen
Down

Invested

$154.79

Value

$176.31

PnL

+$21.51

Record

46%

792-933 (1725)

FairValueMachine
Down

Invested

$110.99

Value

$134.36

PnL

+$28.36

Record

54%

4559-3961 (8520)

PL
ply-pm0
Down

Invested

$96.75

Value

$107

PnL

+$10.25

Record

33%

706-1465 (2171)

Polkadot-Frog
Down

Invested

$94.16

Value

$103.66

PnL

+$9.5

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

0X
0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100
Down

Invested

$58.29

Value

$70.73

PnL

+$12.44

Record

48%

737-796 (1533)

MO
mo-money<$100
Down

Invested

$56.78

Value

$65.24

PnL

+$8.46

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$38.2

Value

$63.6

PnL

+$25.4

Record

47%

2230-2478 (4708)

0X
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100
Down

Invested

$54.06

Value

$58.9

PnL

+$4.84

Record

59%

966-675 (1641)

SP
spartacray<$100
Down

Invested

$54.52

Value

$57.95

PnL

+$3.43

Record

58%

965-690 (1655)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100
Down

Invested

$35.7

Value

$47.95

PnL

+$12.25

Record

41%

769-1117 (1886)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100
Down

Invested

$43.44

Value

$46.49

PnL

+$3.05

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

WZ
wzbbbCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$48.15

Value

$45.66

PnL

-$2.49

Record

52%

878-815 (1693)

GA
gansinimen<$100
Down

Invested

$34.84

Value

$39.26

PnL

+$4.43

Record

52%

371-344 (715)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$28.72

Value

$36.26

PnL

+$7.53

Record

59%

3783-2578 (6361)

Chat

EV Calculator

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Break-even chance81.6%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$22.55
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
122.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.

Market Info

Condition ID
0x8e4e2518...c9ece2
Slug
btc-updown-5m-1794699300

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$0
MA

machine-earning

Down — $4.0K

+$0
SO

soswald1

Down — $948.69

+$0.24
UN

uninformedfloww

Down — $878.12

+$29.72
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $596.56

-$501.64
BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$1.95
DA

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $401.4

+$72.6
CR

CrouchPredictions

Down — $376.75

+$25.69
BO

Bonereaper

Down — $360.66

+$38.63
ST

stepahead

Down — $210.78

+$42.63
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