Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

-$463.47

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 55 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down37 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares20,387

Combined PnL+$905.76

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,238

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0	42% 279-382 (661)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$0	45% 563-700 (1263)
BO borderlocket	Downavg 89.9¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$237.08	32% 65-141 (206)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$18.31	98% 3857-81 (3938)
Atomforge	Downavg 88.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$137.55	26% 280-778 (1058)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 83.9¢	$948.7	$903.8	-$44.9	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.9¢	$758.58	$903.8	+$145.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.5¢	$190.12	—	-$190.12
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$950	—	-$935.79	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
SU suntori	Downavg 47.9¢	$373.8	$781	+$407.2	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 82.4¢	$871.51	$754.4	-$117.11	47% 1037-1165 (2202)
ST stepahead	Downavg 72.6¢	$498.77	$522.66	+$23.89	55% 4442-3611 (8053)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 53¢	$561.93	$490.65	+$6.44	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 79.3¢	$470.27	$439.05	-$31.22	44% 740-946 (1686)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 69.2¢	$519.59	$403.61	+$14.57	59% 1039-714 (1753)
MO mo-money	Downavg 92.1¢	$387.51	$327.37	-$60.13	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 82.5¢	$297.55	$342.15	+$44.6	33% 706-1465 (2171)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 93.3¢	$275.23	$295.14	+$19.91	27% 110-291 (401)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 74.4¢	$245.66	$287.23	+$41.58	52% 5039-4741 (9780)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 72.5¢	$196.77	$203.5	+$6.73	46% 792-933 (1725)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 71.1¢	$187.06	$195.36	+$27.22	52% 878-815 (1693)
BO bosona	Downavg 81.9¢	$191.61	$182.23	-$9.39	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 90.1¢	$185.6	$185	-$0.6	52% 874-813 (1687)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 73.9¢	$133.19	$122	-$11.2	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.9¢	$90.16	$122	+$31.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.5¢	$43.04	—	-$43.04
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 83.7¢	$129.83	$145.26	+$15.43	48% 737-796 (1533)
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 50¢	$125	—	-$125	50% 832-828 (1660)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$105.5	$110	+$4.5	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$55.5	$110	+$54.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$50	—	-$50