Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 84%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

$-8.0K

Smart Money Signal

48 of 57 top traders (84%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,784

Combined PnL$-8.4K

Up48 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares19,322

Combined PnL+$405.78

Down — 16%Up — 84%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.8K	42% 279-382 (661)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$34.93	99% 853-7 (860)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.4K	45% 563-700 (1263)
BO borderlocket	Upavg 87.9¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$365.53	32% 65-141 (206)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 83.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$31.65	47% 1037-1165 (2202)
Atomforge	Upavg 87¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$160.14	26% 280-778 (1058)
MO mo-money	Upavg 96.6¢	$1.6K	$966.06	-$28.88	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.4¢	$886.27	$901	+$14.73	98% 3857-81 (3938)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 68.9¢	$849.37	$875.04	+$27.37	59% 1039-714 (1753)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 81.2¢	$799.63	$690.68	-$81.36	44% 740-946 (1686)
AL almach	Upavg 95¢	$1.1K	$669.49	-$2.58	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
ST stepahead	Upavg 81.6¢	$516.15	$532.52	+$16.37	55% 4442-3611 (8053)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 78.6¢	$1.1K	$512.55	-$118.86	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 81¢	$517.1	$511.04	+$21.18	52% 5039-4741 (9780)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 52.9¢	$589.83	$488.85	-$2.17	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 74.5¢	$491.46	$474.93	-$16.52	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 91¢	$409.73	$450.18	+$40.45	27% 110-291 (401)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 78.5¢	$448.29	$367.19	-$64.71	46% 792-933 (1725)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 84.5¢	$370	$345.56	-$24.45	52% 371-344 (715)
BO bosona	Upavg 99¢	$1.1K	$307.01	-$72.5	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$241.46	$178.02	-$63.44	46% 1070-1239 (2309)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$122.57	$178.02	+$55.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.8¢	$118.89	—	-$118.89
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 69.6¢	$178.53	$194.08	+$15.56	50% 780-775 (1555)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 80.4¢	$169.59	$173.53	+$3.94	52% 874-813 (1687)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 91.3¢	$301.04	$166.67	+$15.08	33% 706-1465 (2171)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 85.4¢	$159.24	$160.27	+$3.64	67% 3477-1728 (5205)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

42%

279-382 (661)

THG.

Invested

$3,458.07

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$34.93

Record

99%

853-7 (860)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

45%

563-700 (1263)

borderlocket

Invested

$2,660.08

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$365.53

Record

32%

65-141 (206)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,348.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$31.65

Record

47%

1037-1165 (2202)

Atomforge

Invested

$1,070.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$160.14

Record

26%

280-778 (1058)

mo-money

Invested

$1,606.14

Value

$966.06

PnL

-$28.88

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

hoodquant

Invested

$886.27

Value

$901

PnL

+$14.73

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

Bonereaper

Invested

$849.37

Value

$875.04

PnL

+$27.37

Record

59%

1039-714 (1753)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$799.63

Value

$690.68

PnL

-$81.36

Record

44%

740-946 (1686)

almach

Invested

$1,134.24

Value

$669.49

PnL

-$2.58

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

stepahead

Invested

$516.15

Value

$532.52

PnL

+$16.37

Record

55%

4442-3611 (8053)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$1,052.61

Value

$512.55

PnL

-$118.86

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

blue.birds

Invested

$517.1

Value

$511.04

PnL

+$21.18

Record

52%

5039-4741 (9780)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$589.83

Value

$488.85

PnL

-$2.17

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$491.46

Value

$474.93

PnL

-$16.52

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$409.73

Value

$450.18

PnL

+$40.45

Record

27%

110-291 (401)

GoodFallen

Invested

$448.29

Value

$367.19

PnL

-$64.71

Record

46%

792-933 (1725)

gansinimen

Invested

$370

Value

$345.56

PnL

-$24.45

Record

52%

371-344 (715)

bosona

Invested

$1,126.97

Value

$307.01

PnL

-$72.5

Record

51%

4704-4511 (9215)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$241.46

Value

$178.02

PnL

-$63.44

Record

46%

1070-1239 (2309)

Both legs:

Up$122.5768.9¢+$55.45

Down$118.8919.8¢-$118.89

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$178.53

Value

$194.08

PnL

+$15.56

Record

50%

780-775 (1555)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$169.59

Value

$173.53

PnL

+$3.94

Record

52%

874-813 (1687)

ply-pm0

Invested

$301.04

Value

$166.67

PnL

+$15.08

Record

33%

706-1465 (2171)

asdaefef

Invested

$159.24

Value

$160.27

PnL

+$3.64

Record

67%

3477-1728 (5205)

Smart Money Signal

48 of 57 top traders (84%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1bdc54bb...9cd528

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794698400

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-4.8K

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$34.93

machine-earning

CTR

Down — $0

$-3.4K

borderlocket

Up — $3.0K

+$365.53

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.3K

-$31.65

Atomforge

Up — $1.2K

+$160.14

mo-money

Up — $966.06

-$28.88

hoodquant

Up — $901

+$14.73

Bonereaper

Up — $875.04

+$27.37

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $690.68

-$81.36

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