Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

15 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.9K

Combined PnL

$-4.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 47 top traders (62%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,080

Combined PnL+$613.06

Down29 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,462

Combined PnL$-5.0K

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$207.32	42% 279-382 (661)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.3K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$4.55	45% 563-700 (1263)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.7K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.7K
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$175.21	52% 371-344 (715)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.1¢	$951.5	$2.0K	+$1.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.8¢	$891.74	—	-$891.74
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 41.2¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$456.25	59% 1039-714 (1753)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 65.1¢	$728.44	—	-$726.34	44% 740-946 (1686)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 63.4¢	$922.94	$957.67	+$34.74	52% 5039-4741 (9780)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$402	$957.67	+$555.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.4¢	$520.94	—	-$520.94
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 54.6¢	$774.5	$833.78	+$59.29	47% 1037-1165 (2202)
ST stepaheadCTR	Downavg 62.9¢	$559.37	—	-$533.75	55% 4442-3611 (8053)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 53.1¢	$616.18	$484.9	+$0.15	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$232.73	$484.9	+$242.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.1¢	$257.77	—	-$242.57
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$633.85	$440.65	-$193.19	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$220.79	$440.65	+$219.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.4¢	$413.05	—	-$413.05
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 90.5¢	$864.35	$250.38	-$613.97	46% 1070-1239 (2309)
└ Down leg	Downavg 90.5¢	$750.75	—	-$750.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$113.6	$250.38	+$136.78
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 56.4¢	$469.83	—	-$462.63	46% 792-933 (1725)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 44.3¢	$310.69	$354.91	+$61.98	54% 4559-3961 (8520)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 61.2¢	$360.09	—	-$338.23	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 55.2¢	$430.51	—	-$417.6	52% 878-815 (1693)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 43.8¢	$224.77	—	-$221.86	47% 2139-2368 (4507)
NIULAI4	Upavg 61.2¢	$257.81	$363.6	+$105.79	28% 495-1271 (1766)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 44.8¢	$245.3	$314.44	+$69.14	41% 769-1117 (1886)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$460.24	$99	-$361.24	51% 1932-1885 (3817)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.7¢	$419.92	—	-$419.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.7¢	$40.32	$99	+$58.68
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 53.5¢	$364.94	—	-$217.44	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 36¢	$180.39	$280.47	+$100.08	50% 780-775 (1555)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36¢	$100.99	$280.47	+$179.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 73¢	$79.4	—	-$79.4
PB PBot-5	Upavg 42.3¢	$122.5	$254.81	+$132.31	49% 1304-1382 (2686)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$254.16	$175.44	-$78.73	47% 2230-2478 (4708)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.9¢	$108.53	$175.44	+$66.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.7¢	$145.63	—	-$145.63
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 56.6¢	$280.27	$119.99	-$160.28	48% 2195-2413 (4608)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.6¢	$229.88	—	-$229.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$50.4	$119.99	+$69.6
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 81.5¢	$1.5K	$123.52	-$518.5	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
└ Up leg	Upavg 91¢	$112.41	$123.52	-$10.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.5¢	$314.34	—	-$507.61

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$207.32

Record

42%

279-382 (661)

Both legs:

Up$2,49050¢+$2.5K

Down$2,372.650¢$-2.3K

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$4.55

Record

45%

563-700 (1263)

Both legs:

Down$1,793.3350¢$-1.7K

Up$1,793.3350¢+$1.7K

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$1,843.24

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$175.21

Record

52%

371-344 (715)

Both legs:

Up$951.547.1¢+$1.1K

Down$891.7445.8¢-$891.74

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,530.02

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$456.25

Record

59%

1039-714 (1753)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$728.44

Value

—

PnL

-$726.34

Record

44%

740-946 (1686)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$922.94

Value

$957.67

PnL

+$34.74

Record

52%

5039-4741 (9780)

Both legs:

Up$40242¢+$555.67

Down$520.9463.4¢-$520.94

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$774.5

Value

$833.78

PnL

+$59.29

Record

47%

1037-1165 (2202)

stepaheadCTR

Down

Invested

$559.37

Value

—

PnL

-$533.75

Record

55%

4442-3611 (8053)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$616.18

Value

$484.9

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Up$232.7348¢+$242.72

Down$257.7753.1¢-$242.57

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$633.85

Value

$440.65

PnL

-$193.19

Record

51%

4704-4511 (9215)

Both legs:

Up$220.7950.1¢+$219.86

Down$413.0576.4¢-$413.05

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$864.35

Value

$250.38

PnL

-$613.97

Record

46%

1070-1239 (2309)

Both legs:

Down$750.7590.5¢-$750.75

Up$113.645.4¢+$136.78

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$469.83

Value

—

PnL

-$462.63

Record

46%

792-933 (1725)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$310.69

Value

$354.91

PnL

+$61.98

Record

54%

4559-3961 (8520)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$360.09

Value

—

PnL

-$338.23

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$430.51

Value

—

PnL

-$417.6

Record

52%

878-815 (1693)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$224.77

Value

—

PnL

-$221.86

Record

47%

2139-2368 (4507)

NIULAI4

Invested

$257.81

Value

$363.6

PnL

+$105.79

Record

28%

495-1271 (1766)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$245.3

Value

$314.44

PnL

+$69.14

Record

41%

769-1117 (1886)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$460.24

Value

$99

PnL

-$361.24

Record

51%

1932-1885 (3817)

Both legs:

Down$419.9251.7¢-$419.92

Up$40.3240.7¢+$58.68

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$364.94

Value

—

PnL

-$217.44

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$180.39

Value

$280.47

PnL

+$100.08

Record

50%

780-775 (1555)

Both legs:

Up$100.9936¢+$179.48

Down$79.473¢-$79.4

PBot-5

Invested

$122.5

Value

$254.81

PnL

+$132.31

Record

49%

1304-1382 (2686)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$254.16

Value

$175.44

PnL

-$78.73

Record

47%

2230-2478 (4708)

Both legs:

Up$108.5361.9¢+$66.91

Down$145.6360.7¢-$145.63

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$280.27

Value

$119.99

PnL

-$160.28

Record

48%

2195-2413 (4608)

Both legs:

Down$229.8856.6¢-$229.88

Up$50.442¢+$69.6

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,485.1

Value

$123.52

PnL

-$518.5

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

Both legs:

Up$112.4191¢-$10.89

Down$314.3481.5¢-$507.61

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 47 top traders (62%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb0500eac...7543c2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794698100

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Up — $2.0K

+$456.25

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $0

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Up — $833.78

stepahead

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

bosona

Arbitrage — excluded