Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Up 83%
2 arb excluded
$14.6K
$-8.1K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 48 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-5.0K | 42% 279-382 (661) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-4.0K | 45% 563-700 (1263) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$34.89 | 99% 853-7 (860) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$41.48 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
BO bosona | Upavg 85.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$178.43 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 89.1¢ | $771.04 | $865.39 | +$94.35 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 74.5¢ | $615.39 | $711.94 | +$97.06 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
AL almach | Upavg 87.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$150.68 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 81.7¢ | $544.99 | $552.14 | +$7.14 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $542.77 | $495.74 | +$6.98 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 83.8¢ | $396.3 | $472.89 | +$76.59 | 51% 990-949 (1939) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 97.4¢ | $457.17 | $469.23 | +$12.06 | 33% 1061-2196 (3257) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 87.2¢ | $328.4 | $345.49 | +$17.09 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 81.1¢ | $251.2 | $216.92 | -$34.28 | 44% 740-946 (1686) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20.7¢ | $75.2 | — | -$75.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81.1¢ | $176 | $216.92 | +$40.93 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $267.64 | $287.4 | +$19.77 | 51% 786-758 (1544) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 79.8¢ | $220.57 | $260.42 | +$41.42 | 52% 5039-4741 (9780) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 80.7¢ | $229.95 | $232.43 | +$2.48 | 59% 1039-714 (1753) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 80.7¢ | $187.55 | $232.43 | +$44.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.8¢ | $42.4 | — | -$42.4 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 73.6¢ | $135.84 | $181.09 | +$45.25 | 33% 706-1465 (2171) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 75.5¢ | $283.1 | $179.22 | +$10.86 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 74.7¢ | $132.99 | $125.99 | +$14.6 | 46% 792-933 (1725) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 92.2¢ | $115.25 | $125 | +$9.75 | 46% 1070-1239 (2309) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99¢ | $113.86 | $115.01 | +$1.15 | 51% 1932-1885 (3817) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 90.9¢ | $68.97 | $75.88 | +$6.91 | 38% 1469-2355 (3824) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 96.5¢ | $66.59 | $69 | +$2.41 | 52% 2738-2492 (5230) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 85¢ | $87.2 | $100 | +$12.8 | 59% 982-682 (1664) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
42%
279-382 (661)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.0K
Record
45%
563-700 (1263)
Invested
$3,454.11
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$34.89
Record
99%
853-7 (860)
Invested
$1,760.52
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$41.48
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$1,263.09
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$178.43
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
Invested
$771.04
Value
$865.39
PnL
+$94.35
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Invested
$615.39
Value
$711.94
PnL
+$97.06
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$1,016.72
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$150.68
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Invested
$544.99
Value
$552.14
PnL
+$7.14
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
Invested
$542.77
Value
$495.74
PnL
+$6.98
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Invested
$396.3
Value
$472.89
PnL
+$76.59
Record
51%
990-949 (1939)
pspspsps5Invested
$457.17
Value
$469.23
PnL
+$12.06
Record
33%
1061-2196 (3257)
Invested
$328.4
Value
$345.49
PnL
+$17.09
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
Invested
$251.2
Value
$216.92
PnL
-$34.28
Record
44%
740-946 (1686)
Both legs:
Invested
$267.64
Value
$287.4
PnL
+$19.77
Record
51%
786-758 (1544)
Invested
$220.57
Value
$260.42
PnL
+$41.42
Record
52%
5039-4741 (9780)
Invested
$229.95
Value
$232.43
PnL
+$2.48
Record
59%
1039-714 (1753)
Both legs:
Invested
$135.84
Value
$181.09
PnL
+$45.25
Record
33%
706-1465 (2171)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$283.1
Value
$179.22
PnL
+$10.86
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Invested
$132.99
Value
$125.99
PnL
+$14.6
Record
46%
792-933 (1725)
machinelearnedInvested
$115.25
Value
$125
PnL
+$9.75
Record
46%
1070-1239 (2309)
Invested
$113.86
Value
$115.01
PnL
+$1.15
Record
51%
1932-1885 (3817)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$68.97
Value
$75.88
PnL
+$6.91
Record
38%
1469-2355 (3824)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$66.59
Value
$69
PnL
+$2.41
Record
52%
2738-2492 (5230)
Invested
$87.2
Value
$100
PnL
+$12.8
Record
59%
982-682 (1664)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
hoodquant
Up — $1.8K
bosona
Up — $1.4K
mo-money
Up — $865.39
CrouchPredictions
Up — $711.94
almach
Up — $1.2K
stepahead
Up — $552.14
ByteBadger92
Up — $495.74