Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

42 of 48 top Polymarket traders hold Up (88%) · Up at 98¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 14

Up98¢Down2¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.5K

Combined PnL

$446.98

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 97.5¢

+68% since entry · 42 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

42 of 48 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up98%

Down3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up42 traders

Total Value$25.2K

Total Shares25,512

Combined PnL+$454.13

Down6 traders

Total Value$46.08

Total Shares1,387

Combined PnL-$7.15

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.5K	$8.4K	+$40.43	55% 424-347 (771)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$42.14	42% 270-377 (647)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	+$32.85	45% 556-693 (1249)
AL almach	Upavg 92.9¢	$1.2K	$985.61	-$58.4	51% 1438-1373 (2811)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$949.1	+$0.1	52% 3445-3233 (6678)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 75.2¢	$866.53	$791.82	-$73.29	47% 1027-1156 (2183)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 64.5¢	$454.39	$549.25	+$94.86	44% 732-940 (1672)
MO mo-money	Upavg 93.7¢	$525.01	$534.97	+$9.96	51% 1429-1393 (2822)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 67.9¢	$549.47	$532.1	+$4.18	52% 2228-2078 (4306)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.4¢	$510.16	$503.91	+$0.05	54% 3579-3041 (6620)
BO bosona	Upavg 92.4¢	$389.53	$401.87	+$12.34	51% 4683-4502 (9185)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.2¢	$391.8	$392.95	+$1.14	98% 3813-79 (3892)
ST stepahead	Upavg 69.2¢	$289.62	$302.55	+$12.93	55% 4430-3604 (8034)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 58.3¢	$167.77	$214.92	+$65.55	46% 784-927 (1711)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 64.8¢	$203.88	$173.23	-$30.65	32% 694-1463 (2157)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.8¢	$132.55	$138.07	+$5.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.9¢	$71.34	$35.16	-$36.17
SP spartacray	Upavg 77.9¢	$148.69	$161.94	+$13.25	58% 956-685 (1641)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 68.7¢	$208.95	$153.09	+$37.24	52% 5030-4731 (9761)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 76.9¢	$121.13	$139.55	+$18.42	50% 4458-4532 (8990)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 84.5¢	$117.8	$126.99	+$9.19	59% 960-668 (1628)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 57.6¢	$70	$119.68	+$49.68	52% 872-806 (1678)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 84.8¢	$107.33	$118.83	+$11.5	59% 978-674 (1652)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 92¢	$109.37	$109.94	+$0.57	52% 867-805 (1672)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 90.4¢	$100.59	$103.24	+$2.65	51% 791-766 (1557)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 48.1¢	$47.93	$98.21	+$50.27	59% 1030-707 (1737)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 93.6¢	$76.87	$79.02	+$2.16	46% 1062-1233 (2295)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,521

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$40.43

Record

55%

424-347 (771)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$42.14

Record

42%

270-377 (647)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$32.85

Record

45%

556-693 (1249)

almach

Invested

$1,208.2

Value

$985.61

PnL

-$58.4

Record

51%

1438-1373 (2811)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$949.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

3445-3233 (6678)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$866.53

Value

$791.82

PnL

-$73.29

Record

47%

1027-1156 (2183)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$454.39

Value

$549.25

PnL

+$94.86

Record

44%

732-940 (1672)

mo-money

Invested

$525.01

Value

$534.97

PnL

+$9.96

Record

51%

1429-1393 (2822)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$549.47

Value

$532.1

PnL

+$4.18

Record

52%

2228-2078 (4306)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$510.16

Value

$503.91

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

3579-3041 (6620)

bosona

Invested

$389.53

Value

$401.87

PnL

+$12.34

Record

51%

4683-4502 (9185)

hoodquant

Invested

$391.8

Value

$392.95

PnL

+$1.14

Record

98%

3813-79 (3892)

stepahead

Invested

$289.62

Value

$302.55

PnL

+$12.93

Record

55%

4430-3604 (8034)

GoodFallen

Invested

$167.77

Value

$214.92

PnL

+$65.55

Record

46%

784-927 (1711)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$203.88

Value

$173.23

PnL

-$30.65

Record

32%

694-1463 (2157)

Both legs:

Up$132.5564.8¢+$5.52

Down$71.3465.9¢-$36.17

spartacray

Invested

$148.69

Value

$161.94

PnL

+$13.25

Record

58%

956-685 (1641)

blue.birds

Invested

$208.95

Value

$153.09

PnL

+$37.24

Record

52%

5030-4731 (9761)

asdcaxz

Invested

$121.13

Value

$139.55

PnL

+$18.42

Record

50%

4458-4532 (8990)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$117.8

Value

$126.99

PnL

+$9.19

Record

59%

960-668 (1628)

wzbbb

Invested

$70

Value

$119.68

PnL

+$49.68

Record

52%

872-806 (1678)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$107.33

Value

$118.83

PnL

+$11.5

Record

59%

978-674 (1652)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$109.37

Value

$109.94

PnL

+$0.57

Record

52%

867-805 (1672)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$100.59

Value

$103.24

PnL

+$2.65

Record

51%

791-766 (1557)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$47.93

Value

$98.21

PnL

+$50.27

Record

59%

1030-707 (1737)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$76.87

Value

$79.02

PnL

+$2.16

Record

46%

1062-1233 (2295)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

42 of 48 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.