Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
38 of 50 top Polymarket traders hold Down (76%) · Down at 100¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Down
50
Down 76%
2 arb excluded
$28.3K
$1.3K
62.9¢ → 99.5¢
+58% since entry · 38 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
38 of 50 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.6K | +$37.9 | 55% 424-347 (771) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.7K | +$43.92 | 42% 270-377 (647) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.6K | +$215.2 | 45% 556-693 (1249) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$140.1 | 47% 1027-1156 (2183) |
AL almach | Downavg 77.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$270.67 | 51% 1438-1373 (2811) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 87.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$115.46 | 51% 1429-1393 (2822) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 68.9¢ | $891.56 | $944.35 | +$52.79 | 55% 4430-3604 (8034) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 70.1¢ | $597.46 | $582.56 | +$48.1 | 59% 1030-707 (1737) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 70.6¢ | $515.11 | $530.28 | +$15.16 | 44% 732-940 (1672) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 61.3¢ | $348.74 | $515.4 | +$166.66 | 46% 1062-1233 (2295) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 54.2¢ | $610.92 | $488.68 | +$6.6 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 76.8¢ | $360.98 | $388.99 | +$28.01 | 32% 694-1463 (2157) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 68.9¢ | $336.34 | $365.84 | +$29.5 | 52% 5030-4731 (9761) |
BO bosona | Downavg 91.9¢ | $982.53 | $290.54 | +$101.96 | 51% 4683-4502 (9185) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.8¢ | $283.75 | $288.55 | +$4.8 | 98% 3813-79 (3892) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 86¢ | $243.16 | $259.58 | +$16.42 | 50% 770-772 (1542) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 72.3¢ | $248.16 | $256.98 | +$9.13 | 46% 784-927 (1711) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 89.6¢ | $299.83 | $240.87 | -$56.96 | 52% 2228-2078 (4306) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 76.5¢ | $188.21 | $199.66 | +$14.76 | 52% 365-338 (703) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 79.6¢ | $140.76 | $166.14 | +$27 | 58% 956-685 (1641) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 75¢ | $126.51 | $151.42 | +$25.73 | 50% 4458-4532 (8990) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 80.3¢ | $121.37 | $140.1 | +$18.72 | 59% 960-668 (1628) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $171.16 | $138.21 | -$32.94 | 48% 732-788 (1520) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $116.85 | $120.11 | +$3.26 | 52% 867-805 (1672) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 77.6¢ | $97.79 | $119.54 | +$21.75 | 59% 978-674 (1652) |
Invested
$8,686
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$37.9
Record
55%
424-347 (771)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$43.92
Record
42%
270-377 (647)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$215.2
Record
45%
556-693 (1249)
Invested
$1,352.47
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$140.1
Record
47%
1027-1156 (2183)
Invested
$1,072.46
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$270.67
Record
51%
1438-1373 (2811)
Invested
$1,116.43
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$115.46
Record
51%
1429-1393 (2822)
Invested
$891.56
Value
$944.35
PnL
+$52.79
Record
55%
4430-3604 (8034)
Invested
$597.46
Value
$582.56
PnL
+$48.1
Record
59%
1030-707 (1737)
Invested
$515.11
Value
$530.28
PnL
+$15.16
Record
44%
732-940 (1672)
machinelearnedInvested
$348.74
Value
$515.4
PnL
+$166.66
Record
46%
1062-1233 (2295)
Invested
$610.92
Value
$488.68
PnL
+$6.6
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Invested
$360.98
Value
$388.99
PnL
+$28.01
Record
32%
694-1463 (2157)
Invested
$336.34
Value
$365.84
PnL
+$29.5
Record
52%
5030-4731 (9761)
Invested
$982.53
Value
$290.54
PnL
+$101.96
Record
51%
4683-4502 (9185)
Invested
$283.75
Value
$288.55
PnL
+$4.8
Record
98%
3813-79 (3892)
Invested
$243.16
Value
$259.58
PnL
+$16.42
Record
50%
770-772 (1542)
Invested
$248.16
Value
$256.98
PnL
+$9.13
Record
46%
784-927 (1711)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$299.83
Value
$240.87
PnL
-$56.96
Record
52%
2228-2078 (4306)
Invested
$188.21
Value
$199.66
PnL
+$14.76
Record
52%
365-338 (703)
Invested
$140.76
Value
$166.14
PnL
+$27
Record
58%
956-685 (1641)
Invested
$126.51
Value
$151.42
PnL
+$25.73
Record
50%
4458-4532 (8990)
Invested
$121.37
Value
$140.1
PnL
+$18.72
Record
59%
960-668 (1628)
Invested
$171.16
Value
$138.21
PnL
-$32.94
Record
48%
732-788 (1520)
Invested
$116.85
Value
$120.11
PnL
+$3.26
Record
52%
867-805 (1672)
Invested
$97.79
Value
$119.54
PnL
+$21.75
Record
59%
978-674 (1652)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.6K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $4.7K
machine-earning
Down — $3.6K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.5K
almach
Down — $1.3K
mo-money
Down — $1.2K
stepahead
Down — $944.35
Bonereaper
Down — $582.56
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $530.28
machinelearned
Down — $515.4