Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Down 69%
3 arb excluded
$17.2K
$-11.9K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 54 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.4K | 55% 424-347 (771) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 42% 270-377 (647) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | +$94.92 | 45% 556-693 (1249) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 72.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.4K | +$632.94 | 49% 2292-2354 (4646) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 78.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$22.02 | 47% 1027-1156 (2183) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $940 | -$4.3 | 52% 3445-3233 (6678) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $470 | $940 | +$470.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
BO bosona | Downavg 61.1¢ | $827.64 | $929.66 | +$102.02 | 51% 4683-4502 (9185) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 71.6¢ | $605.94 | $757.35 | +$151.41 | 46% 1062-1233 (2295) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 67.9¢ | $516.1 | $735.1 | +$219 | 51% 1429-1393 (2822) |
AL almach | Downavg 79.5¢ | $680.79 | $734.3 | +$53.52 | 51% 1438-1373 (2811) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 72.8¢ | $649.1 | $679.1 | +$32.8 | 59% 1030-707 (1737) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $569.22 | $502.99 | -$3.01 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 47.3¢ | $414.6 | $497.9 | +$83.3 | 52% 2228-2078 (4306) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 56.5¢ | $448.35 | $485.47 | +$37.13 | 44% 732-940 (1672) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 78.4¢ | $470.08 | $463.27 | +$23.12 | 52% 5030-4731 (9761) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $450.09 | $454.78 | +$4.69 | 98% 3813-79 (3892) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 72.5¢ | $449.41 | $437.51 | -$11.9 | 55% 4430-3604 (8034) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 72.1¢ | $300.34 | $314.75 | +$42.68 | 50% 4458-4532 (8990) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 47.8¢ | $340.4 | — | -$312.8 | 46% 784-927 (1711) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 89.4¢ | $233.1 | $219.98 | -$13.12 | 52% 365-338 (703) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $178.5 | $151.24 | -$27.27 | 54% 4551-3955 (8506) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.5¢ | $93.06 | $151.24 | +$58.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.5¢ | $85.44 | — | -$85.44 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $324.93 | $147.43 | -$4.49 | 32% 694-1463 (2157) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 69.9¢ | $141.11 | $171.33 | +$30.23 | 52% 872-806 (1678) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $151.84 | $110.84 | -$41 | 51% 789-759 (1548) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 81.7¢ | $125.26 | $114.48 | -$10.78 | 46% 704-833 (1537) |
Invested
$8,679
Value
—
PnL
$-8.4K
Record
55%
424-347 (771)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
42%
270-377 (647)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$94.92
Record
45%
556-693 (1249)
Invested
$2,125.66
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$632.94
Record
49%
2292-2354 (4646)
Invested
$1,399.37
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$22.02
Record
47%
1027-1156 (2183)
Invested
$950
Value
$940
PnL
-$4.3
Record
52%
3445-3233 (6678)
Both legs:
Invested
$827.64
Value
$929.66
PnL
+$102.02
Record
51%
4683-4502 (9185)
machinelearnedInvested
$605.94
Value
$757.35
PnL
+$151.41
Record
46%
1062-1233 (2295)
Invested
$516.1
Value
$735.1
PnL
+$219
Record
51%
1429-1393 (2822)
Invested
$680.79
Value
$734.3
PnL
+$53.52
Record
51%
1438-1373 (2811)
Invested
$649.1
Value
$679.1
PnL
+$32.8
Record
59%
1030-707 (1737)
Invested
$569.22
Value
$502.99
PnL
-$3.01
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$414.6
Value
$497.9
PnL
+$83.3
Record
52%
2228-2078 (4306)
Invested
$448.35
Value
$485.47
PnL
+$37.13
Record
44%
732-940 (1672)
Invested
$470.08
Value
$463.27
PnL
+$23.12
Record
52%
5030-4731 (9761)
Invested
$450.09
Value
$454.78
PnL
+$4.69
Record
98%
3813-79 (3892)
Invested
$449.41
Value
$437.51
PnL
-$11.9
Record
55%
4430-3604 (8034)
Invested
$300.34
Value
$314.75
PnL
+$42.68
Record
50%
4458-4532 (8990)
Invested
$340.4
Value
—
PnL
-$312.8
Record
46%
784-927 (1711)
Invested
$233.1
Value
$219.98
PnL
-$13.12
Record
52%
365-338 (703)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$178.5
Value
$151.24
PnL
-$27.27
Record
54%
4551-3955 (8506)
Both legs:
Invested
$324.93
Value
$147.43
PnL
-$4.49
Record
32%
694-1463 (2157)
Invested
$141.11
Value
$171.33
PnL
+$30.23
Record
52%
872-806 (1678)
Invested
$151.84
Value
$110.84
PnL
-$41
Record
51%
789-759 (1548)
Invested
$125.26
Value
$114.48
PnL
-$10.78
Record
46%
704-833 (1537)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.7K
uninformedfloww
Down — $2.4K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.4K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
Down — $929.66
machinelearned
Down — $757.35
mo-money
Down — $735.1
almach
Down — $734.3