Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
46
Down 74%
6 arb excluded
$14.1K
$-12.9K
Smart Money Signal
34 of 46 top traders (74%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-8.2K | 55% 424-347 (771) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 42% 270-377 (647) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.6K | +$98.26 | 45% 556-693 (1249) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 76.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$2.74 | 47% 1027-1156 (2183) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 82.9¢ | $976.88 | $1.1K | +$90.82 | 51% 1429-1393 (2822) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 72.1¢ | $878.51 | $821.23 | -$57.28 | 44% 732-940 (1672) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 67.8¢ | $630.85 | $748.97 | +$118.13 | 52% 5030-4731 (9761) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 60.2¢ | $682.18 | $707.88 | +$25.7 | 55% 4430-3604 (8034) |
BO bosona | Downavg 86¢ | $759.25 | $794.22 | +$34.97 | 51% 4683-4502 (9185) |
AL almach | Downavg 80.7¢ | $572.07 | $675.25 | +$103.19 | 51% 1438-1373 (2811) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 77.3¢ | $586.84 | $558.36 | -$28.47 | 50% 4458-4532 (8990) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 53.6¢ | $661.94 | $492.46 | +$6.07 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.6¢ | $264.06 | $492.46 | +$254.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.3¢ | $230.54 | — | -$248.53 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $431.73 | $347.55 | -$84.19 | 46% 784-927 (1711) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.6¢ | $245.4 | $347.55 | +$102.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.4¢ | $186.33 | — | -$186.33 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 72.9¢ | $348.38 | $366.05 | +$17.67 | 32% 694-1463 (2157) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 57.2¢ | $361.74 | $350.45 | -$10.14 | 59% 1030-707 (1737) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $335.44 | $339 | +$3.56 | 98% 3813-79 (3892) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 77.4¢ | $257.23 | $240.57 | -$6.12 | 54% 4551-3955 (8506) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 81.7¢ | $756.11 | $195 | -$80.12 | 52% 2228-2078 (4306) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 66.9¢ | $130.74 | $159.65 | +$28.91 | 48% 2164-2388 (4552) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 71.1¢ | $101.82 | $115.17 | +$14.4 | 44% 2109-2719 (4828) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 76.2¢ | $95.47 | $119.66 | +$24.19 | 59% 978-674 (1652) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $111.07 | $109.13 | -$1.94 | 63% 4066-2434 (6500) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 61.4¢ | $102.18 | $100 | -$2.18 | 41% 763-1110 (1873) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.4¢ | $61.4 | $100 | +$38.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.7¢ | $40.78 | — | -$40.78 | |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 26.9¢ | $171.33 | — | -$171.33 | 46% 1062-1233 (2295) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $78.34 | $97.81 | +$19.47 | 57% 298-228 (526) |
Invested
$8,563
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
55%
424-347 (771)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
42%
270-377 (647)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$98.26
Record
45%
556-693 (1249)
Invested
$1,241.25
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$2.74
Record
47%
1027-1156 (2183)
Invested
$976.88
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$90.82
Record
51%
1429-1393 (2822)
Invested
$878.51
Value
$821.23
PnL
-$57.28
Record
44%
732-940 (1672)
Invested
$630.85
Value
$748.97
PnL
+$118.13
Record
52%
5030-4731 (9761)
Invested
$682.18
Value
$707.88
PnL
+$25.7
Record
55%
4430-3604 (8034)
Invested
$759.25
Value
$794.22
PnL
+$34.97
Record
51%
4683-4502 (9185)
Invested
$572.07
Value
$675.25
PnL
+$103.19
Record
51%
1438-1373 (2811)
Invested
$586.84
Value
$558.36
PnL
-$28.47
Record
50%
4458-4532 (8990)
Invested
$661.94
Value
$492.46
PnL
+$6.07
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Both legs:
Invested
$431.73
Value
$347.55
PnL
-$84.19
Record
46%
784-927 (1711)
Both legs:
Invested
$348.38
Value
$366.05
PnL
+$17.67
Record
32%
694-1463 (2157)
Invested
$361.74
Value
$350.45
PnL
-$10.14
Record
59%
1030-707 (1737)
Invested
$335.44
Value
$339
PnL
+$3.56
Record
98%
3813-79 (3892)
FairValueMachineInvested
$257.23
Value
$240.57
PnL
-$6.12
Record
54%
4551-3955 (8506)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$756.11
Value
$195
PnL
-$80.12
Record
52%
2228-2078 (4306)
Invested
$130.74
Value
$159.65
PnL
+$28.91
Record
48%
2164-2388 (4552)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$101.82
Value
$115.17
PnL
+$14.4
Record
44%
2109-2719 (4828)
Invested
$95.47
Value
$119.66
PnL
+$24.19
Record
59%
978-674 (1652)
Invested
$111.07
Value
$109.13
PnL
-$1.94
Record
63%
4066-2434 (6500)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$102.18
Value
$100
PnL
-$2.18
Record
41%
763-1110 (1873)
Both legs:
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$171.33
Value
—
PnL
-$171.33
Record
46%
1062-1233 (2295)
Invested
$78.34
Value
$97.81
PnL
+$19.47
Record
57%
298-228 (526)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.6K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
mo-money
Down — $1.1K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $821.23
blue.birds
Down — $748.97
stepahead
Down — $707.88
bosona
Down — $794.22
almach
Down — $675.25