Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.2K

Combined PnL

$811.66

Smart Money Signal

48 of 56 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up48 traders

Total Value$39.1K

Total Shares39,067

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,947

Combined PnL-$614.13

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$9.01	52% 1406-1302 (2708)
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.7K	+$16.81	55% 424-347 (771)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$22.97	42% 270-377 (647)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$120.61	45% 556-693 (1249)
MO mo-money	Upavg 88.3¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$159.46	51% 1429-1393 (2822)
AL almach	Upavg 85.5¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$183.27	51% 1438-1373 (2811)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 75¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$29.16	52% 2228-2078 (4306)
BO bosona	Upavg 83.7¢	$855.28	$1.0K	+$151.82	51% 4683-4502 (9185)
machinelearned	Upavg 90.6¢	$756.12	$834.4	+$78.28	46% 1062-1233 (2295)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.5¢	$692.36	$703	+$10.64	98% 3813-79 (3892)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 70.4¢	$688.3	$592.32	-$68.97	44% 732-940 (1672)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.8¢	$593.26	$499.07	+$5.55	54% 3579-3041 (6620)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 96.9¢	$448.42	$463	+$14.57	42% 1711-2331 (4042)
ST stepahead	Upavg 60.2¢	$384.49	$421.33	+$36.84	55% 4430-3604 (8034)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 69.9¢	$410.34	$406.58	-$3.76	59% 1030-707 (1737)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 65¢	$294.88	$341.76	+$46.88	52% 5030-4731 (9761)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 57.1¢	$309.62	$486.18	+$176.56	47% 1027-1156 (2183)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 64.6¢	$323.27	$332.53	+$10.66	50% 4458-4532 (8990)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 59.7¢	$202.94	$296.61	+$100.32	52% 872-806 (1678)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 66.4¢	$249.23	$270.7	+$21.47	46% 784-927 (1711)
LI Little-big	Upavg 48.4¢	$120.7	$249.54	+$128.84	51% 983-938 (1921)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 76.2¢	$260.37	$243.99	-$16.39	54% 4551-3955 (8506)
cryingbabydicer87	Upavg 99.8¢	$199.6	$200	+$0.4	49% 1554-1593 (3147)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 97.4¢	$137.32	$141	+$3.68	52% 2715-2472 (5187)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 82.2¢	$203.28	$133.84	+$3.88	32% 694-1463 (2157)

0x50f7

Invested

$8,997.01

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$9.01

Record

52%

1406-1302 (2708)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,832

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$16.81

Record

55%

424-347 (771)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$22.97

Record

42%

270-377 (647)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$120.61

Record

45%

556-693 (1249)

mo-money

Invested

$1,204.56

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$159.46

Record

51%

1429-1393 (2822)

almach

Invested

$1,083.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$183.27

Record

51%

1438-1373 (2811)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,086.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$29.16

Record

52%

2228-2078 (4306)

bosona

Invested

$855.28

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$151.82

Record

51%

4683-4502 (9185)

machinelearned

Invested

$756.12

Value

$834.4

PnL

+$78.28

Record

46%

1062-1233 (2295)

hoodquant

Invested

$692.36

Value

$703

PnL

+$10.64

Record

98%

3813-79 (3892)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$688.3

Value

$592.32

PnL

-$68.97

Record

44%

732-940 (1672)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$593.26

Value

$499.07

PnL

+$5.55

Record

54%

3579-3041 (6620)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$448.42

Value

$463

PnL

+$14.57

Record

42%

1711-2331 (4042)

stepahead

Invested

$384.49

Value

$421.33

PnL

+$36.84

Record

55%

4430-3604 (8034)

Bonereaper

Invested

$410.34

Value

$406.58

PnL

-$3.76

Record

59%

1030-707 (1737)

blue.birds

Invested

$294.88

Value

$341.76

PnL

+$46.88

Record

52%

5030-4731 (9761)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$309.62

Value

$486.18

PnL

+$176.56

Record

47%

1027-1156 (2183)

asdcaxz

Invested

$323.27

Value

$332.53

PnL

+$10.66

Record

50%

4458-4532 (8990)

wzbbb

Invested

$202.94

Value

$296.61

PnL

+$100.32

Record

52%

872-806 (1678)

GoodFallen

Invested

$249.23

Value

$270.7

PnL

+$21.47

Record

46%

784-927 (1711)

Little-big

Invested

$120.7

Value

$249.54

PnL

+$128.84

Record

51%

983-938 (1921)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$260.37

Value

$243.99

PnL

-$16.39

Record

54%

4551-3955 (8506)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$199.6

Value

$200

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

1554-1593 (3147)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$137.32

Value

$141

PnL

+$3.68

Record

52%

2715-2472 (5187)

ply-pm0

Invested

$203.28

Value

$133.84

PnL

+$3.88

Record

32%

694-1463 (2157)

Smart Money Signal

48 of 56 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc4286a48...333ef5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794694800

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $9.0K

+$9.01

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.7K

+$16.81

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$22.97

machine-earning

Up — $3.8K

+$120.61

mo-money

Up — $1.4K

+$159.46

almach

Up — $1.3K

+$183.27

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $1.1K

-$29.16

bosona

Up — $1.0K

+$151.82

machinelearned

Up — $834.4

+$78.28

hoodquant

Up — $703

+$10.64

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