Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
50
Up 48%
9 arb excluded
$21.9K
$-17.8K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 50 top traders (48%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-8.4K | 55% 424-347 (771) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | +$242.65 | 42% 270-377 (647) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 556-693 (1249) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 43.1¢ | $1.3K | $2.8K | +$1.6K | 51% 1919-1881 (3800) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 50.3¢ | $951.78 | $1.9K | +$939.32 | 49% 2292-2354 (4646) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 88.9¢ | $3.1K | $1.9K | -$679.5 | 51% 1429-1393 (2822) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 52.5¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.2K | 44% 732-940 (1672) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 58.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$4.52 | 52% 365-338 (703) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.7¢ | $819.51 | $1.4K | +$577.59 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.2¢ | $582.11 | — | -$582.11 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 61.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | +$10.54 | 47% 1027-1156 (2183) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 43¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 59% 1030-707 (1737) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 98.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$13.15 | 49% 1554-1593 (3147) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 69.7¢ | $838.6 | — | -$835.17 | 55% 4430-3604 (8034) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 71.9¢ | $776.78 | $722.86 | -$53.93 | 52% 5030-4731 (9761) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 69¢ | $847.54 | $651.42 | -$90.9 | 32% 694-1463 (2157) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 52.6¢ | $469.66 | $597 | +$169.58 | 52% 2228-2078 (4306) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 50.7¢ | $900.89 | — | -$876.62 | 46% 784-927 (1711) |
AL almach | Upavg 86.7¢ | $3.7K | $649.85 | $-1.3K | 51% 1438-1373 (2811) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.7¢ | $635.52 | — | -$473.1 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
BO bosona | Upavg 92.1¢ | $3.0K | $503.59 | -$912.96 | 51% 4683-4502 (9185) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 42.1¢ | $471.41 | $322.07 | -$149.34 | 54% 4551-3955 (8506) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65¢ | $209.35 | $322.07 | +$112.72 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.1¢ | $262.06 | — | -$262.06 | |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 50.7¢ | $332.93 | — | -$332.8 | 52% 872-806 (1678) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 68.1¢ | $251.6 | $369.18 | +$117.58 | 71% 1617-670 (2287) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $262.14 | $366.79 | +$104.65 | 51% 789-759 (1548) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 45.8¢ | $121.19 | $264.67 | +$143.48 | 51% 983-938 (1921) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 92.7¢ | $613.61 | $182.15 | -$431.45 | 46% 1062-1233 (2295) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.4¢ | $79.02 | $182.15 | +$103.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 92.7¢ | $534.58 | — | -$534.58 |
Invested
$8,638
Value
—
PnL
$-8.4K
Record
55%
424-347 (771)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$242.65
Record
42%
270-377 (647)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
556-693 (1249)
Invested
$1,275.74
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
51%
1919-1881 (3800)
Invested
$951.78
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$939.32
Record
49%
2292-2354 (4646)
Invested
$3,066.99
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$679.5
Record
51%
1429-1393 (2822)
Invested
$1,281.25
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
44%
732-940 (1672)
Invested
$1,401.62
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$4.52
Record
52%
365-338 (703)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,377.95
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$10.54
Record
47%
1027-1156 (2183)
Invested
$1,197.48
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
59%
1030-707 (1737)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$1,026.9
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$13.15
Record
49%
1554-1593 (3147)
Invested
$838.6
Value
—
PnL
-$835.17
Record
55%
4430-3604 (8034)
Invested
$776.78
Value
$722.86
PnL
-$53.93
Record
52%
5030-4731 (9761)
Invested
$847.54
Value
$651.42
PnL
-$90.9
Record
32%
694-1463 (2157)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$469.66
Value
$597
PnL
+$169.58
Record
52%
2228-2078 (4306)
Invested
$900.89
Value
—
PnL
-$876.62
Record
46%
784-927 (1711)
Invested
$3,681.72
Value
$649.85
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
51%
1438-1373 (2811)
Invested
$635.52
Value
—
PnL
-$473.1
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Invested
$2,974.7
Value
$503.59
PnL
-$912.96
Record
51%
4683-4502 (9185)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$471.41
Value
$322.07
PnL
-$149.34
Record
54%
4551-3955 (8506)
Both legs:
Invested
$332.93
Value
—
PnL
-$332.8
Record
52%
872-806 (1678)
BoneOhioInvested
$251.6
Value
$369.18
PnL
+$117.58
Record
71%
1617-670 (2287)
Invested
$262.14
Value
$366.79
PnL
+$104.65
Record
51%
789-759 (1548)
Invested
$121.19
Value
$264.67
PnL
+$143.48
Record
51%
983-938 (1921)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$613.61
Value
$182.15
PnL
-$431.45
Record
46%
1062-1233 (2295)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.8K
machine-earning
Down — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $2.8K
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.9K
mo-money
Up — $1.9K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $0
gansinimen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.3K
Bonereaper
Down — $0