Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Down 52%
2 arb excluded
$15.7K
$-18.3K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 59 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.6K | 55% 419-346 (765) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.2K | 42% 268-370 (638) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.9¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$41.47 | 71% 1607-666 (2273) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.08 | 52% 1395-1293 (2688) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-2.4K | 44% 553-691 (1244) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 78.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$137.97 | 47% 1019-1148 (2167) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 72.9¢ | $1.1K | $996.91 | -$84.21 | 51% 5018-4727 (9745) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $940 | -$4.95 | 52% 3418-3216 (6634) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $470 | $940 | +$470.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 49.6¢ | $575.75 | $874.26 | +$300.53 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 66.6¢ | $874.39 | $849.64 | -$24.76 | 55% 4420-3598 (8018) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 58.8¢ | $679.93 | $647.13 | -$31 | 44% 729-932 (1661) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 59.2¢ | $524.3 | $536.71 | +$12.41 | 52% 357-335 (692) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.3¢ | $591.09 | — | -$492.25 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 57¢ | $468.7 | $487.18 | +$18.48 | 46% 781-919 (1700) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 45.7¢ | $534.84 | — | -$523.49 | 49% 2276-2326 (4602) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 48¢ | $754.36 | — | -$754.36 | 51% 1417-1386 (2803) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 47.4¢ | $610.95 | — | -$610.95 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 35.5¢ | $347.5 | — | -$347.5 | 32% 689-1456 (2145) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 77.8¢ | $453.21 | $287.83 | -$61.21 | 50% 4444-4507 (8951) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 60.8¢ | $173.91 | $269.2 | +$95.29 | 52% 865-801 (1666) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $255.05 | $257.63 | +$2.58 | 98% 3774-79 (3853) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 57.7¢ | $264.67 | $240.89 | -$23.77 | 53% 4544-3951 (8495) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 59.5¢ | $457.5 | $239.64 | -$5.78 | 52% 2212-2063 (4275) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 52.1¢ | $158.74 | $210.98 | +$52.24 | 50% 757-743 (1500) |
 ohioism | Downavg 70.6¢ | $120.1 | $140 | +$34.9 | 47% 2089-2333 (4422) |
Invested
$8,805
Value
—
PnL
$-8.6K
Record
55%
419-346 (765)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
42%
268-370 (638)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,567.11
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$41.47
Record
71%
1607-666 (2273)
Invested
$2,977.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.08
Record
52%
1395-1293 (2688)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
44%
553-691 (1244)
Invested
$1,296.86
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$137.97
Record
47%
1019-1148 (2167)
Invested
$1,081.11
Value
$996.91
PnL
-$84.21
Record
51%
5018-4727 (9745)
Invested
$950
Value
$940
PnL
-$4.95
Record
52%
3418-3216 (6634)
Both legs:
Invested
$575.75
Value
$874.26
PnL
+$300.53
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$874.39
Value
$849.64
PnL
-$24.76
Record
55%
4420-3598 (8018)
Invested
$679.93
Value
$647.13
PnL
-$31
Record
44%
729-932 (1661)
Invested
$524.3
Value
$536.71
PnL
+$12.41
Record
52%
357-335 (692)
Invested
$591.09
Value
—
PnL
-$492.25
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Invested
$468.7
Value
$487.18
PnL
+$18.48
Record
46%
781-919 (1700)
Invested
$534.84
Value
—
PnL
-$523.49
Record
49%
2276-2326 (4602)
Invested
$754.36
Value
—
PnL
-$754.36
Record
51%
1417-1386 (2803)
Invested
$610.95
Value
—
PnL
-$610.95
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
Invested
$347.5
Value
—
PnL
-$347.5
Record
32%
689-1456 (2145)
Invested
$453.21
Value
$287.83
PnL
-$61.21
Record
50%
4444-4507 (8951)
Invested
$173.91
Value
$269.2
PnL
+$95.29
Record
52%
865-801 (1666)
Invested
$255.05
Value
$257.63
PnL
+$2.58
Record
98%
3774-79 (3853)
FairValueMachineInvested
$264.67
Value
$240.89
PnL
-$23.77
Record
53%
4544-3951 (8495)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$457.5
Value
$239.64
PnL
-$5.78
Record
52%
2212-2063 (4275)
OhioAIInvested
$158.74
Value
$210.98
PnL
+$52.24
Record
50%
757-743 (1500)
ohioismInvested
$120.1
Value
$140
PnL
+$34.9
Record
47%
2089-2333 (4422)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
Down — $3.6K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.1K
blue.birds
Down — $996.91
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Down — $874.26
stepahead
Down — $849.64