Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Down 79%
2 arb excluded
$23.3K
$-8.6K
Smart Money Signal
41 of 52 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.6K | +$28.74 | 55% 419-346 (765) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 42% 268-370 (638) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.8K | 44% 553-691 (1244) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$34.79 | 99% 840-7 (847) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$5.35 | 52% 3418-3216 (6634) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 68.8¢ | $869.58 | $986.96 | +$117.38 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71¢ | $864.67 | $881.75 | +$17.07 | 44% 729-932 (1661) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 86.5¢ | $835.06 | $866.42 | +$31.36 | 51% 1417-1386 (2803) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.8¢ | $633.45 | $713.41 | +$79.96 | 47% 1019-1148 (2167) |
BO bosona | Downavg 74.7¢ | $473.41 | $613.04 | +$139.63 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 64.4¢ | $445.7 | $542.18 | +$118 | 52% 865-801 (1666) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 71.9¢ | $434.31 | $507.83 | +$73.52 | 46% 1056-1227 (2283) |
AL almach | Downavg 70.8¢ | $424.31 | $508.37 | +$84.06 | 51% 1428-1364 (2792) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 55¢ | $620.68 | $496.31 | +$4.07 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 69.3¢ | $386.89 | $418.91 | +$32.01 | 46% 781-919 (1700) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 70.1¢ | $319.12 | $367.73 | +$48.62 | 55% 4420-3598 (8018) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 80¢ | $364.87 | $361.32 | -$3.55 | 50% 4444-4507 (8951) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 84.2¢ | $378.4 | $326.07 | -$52.32 | 52% 2212-2063 (4275) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 72.6¢ | $328.24 | $317.76 | -$10.48 | 52% 357-335 (692) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 75.6¢ | $319.32 | $278.19 | -$19.67 | 51% 5018-4727 (9745) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 71¢ | $231.06 | $242.3 | +$11.24 | 51% 781-755 (1536) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 66.3¢ | $220.53 | $280.41 | +$59.88 | 53% 4544-3951 (8495) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 30.1¢ | $1.4K | — | -$820.65 | 49% 2276-2326 (4602) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 73.4¢ | $110.17 | $150 | +$39.83 | 41% 757-1108 (1865) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $133.53 | $142.14 | +$8.61 | 50% 763-767 (1530) |
Invested
$8,869
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$28.74
Record
55%
419-346 (765)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
42%
268-370 (638)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
44%
553-691 (1244)
Invested
$3,444.21
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$34.79
Record
99%
840-7 (847)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$5.35
Record
52%
3418-3216 (6634)
Invested
$869.58
Value
$986.96
PnL
+$117.38
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$864.67
Value
$881.75
PnL
+$17.07
Record
44%
729-932 (1661)
Invested
$835.06
Value
$866.42
PnL
+$31.36
Record
51%
1417-1386 (2803)
Invested
$633.45
Value
$713.41
PnL
+$79.96
Record
47%
1019-1148 (2167)
Invested
$473.41
Value
$613.04
PnL
+$139.63
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
Invested
$445.7
Value
$542.18
PnL
+$118
Record
52%
865-801 (1666)
machinelearnedInvested
$434.31
Value
$507.83
PnL
+$73.52
Record
46%
1056-1227 (2283)
Invested
$424.31
Value
$508.37
PnL
+$84.06
Record
51%
1428-1364 (2792)
Invested
$620.68
Value
$496.31
PnL
+$4.07
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Invested
$386.89
Value
$418.91
PnL
+$32.01
Record
46%
781-919 (1700)
Invested
$319.12
Value
$367.73
PnL
+$48.62
Record
55%
4420-3598 (8018)
Invested
$364.87
Value
$361.32
PnL
-$3.55
Record
50%
4444-4507 (8951)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$378.4
Value
$326.07
PnL
-$52.32
Record
52%
2212-2063 (4275)
Invested
$328.24
Value
$317.76
PnL
-$10.48
Record
52%
357-335 (692)
Invested
$319.32
Value
$278.19
PnL
-$19.67
Record
51%
5018-4727 (9745)
Invested
$231.06
Value
$242.3
PnL
+$11.24
Record
51%
781-755 (1536)
FairValueMachineInvested
$220.53
Value
$280.41
PnL
+$59.88
Record
53%
4544-3951 (8495)
Invested
$1,392.75
Value
—
PnL
-$820.65
Record
49%
2276-2326 (4602)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$110.17
Value
$150
PnL
+$39.83
Record
41%
757-1108 (1865)
Invested
$133.53
Value
$142.14
PnL
+$8.61
Record
50%
763-767 (1530)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.6K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
soswald1
Down — $950
Bonereaper
Down — $986.96
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $881.75
mo-money
Down — $866.42
CrouchPredictions
Down — $713.41
bosona
Down — $613.04