Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
49
Up 69%
9 arb excluded
$22.1K
$-8.6K
Smart Money Signal
34 of 49 top traders (69%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $8.5K | +$30.38 | 55% 419-346 (765) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 42% 268-370 (638) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 44% 553-691 (1244) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 74.1¢ | $1.0K | $950.51 | -$73.61 | 47% 1019-1148 (2167) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 65.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$168.51 | 51% 5018-4727 (9745) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 60.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$174.66 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 48¢ | $905.65 | — | -$905.65 | 44% 729-932 (1661) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $945 | +$0.55 | 52% 3418-3216 (6634) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $472.5 | $945 | +$472.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $470 | — | -$471.7 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $868.23 | $877 | +$8.77 | 98% 3774-79 (3853) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 68.7¢ | $1.0K | $820.66 | -$212.66 | 55% 4420-3598 (8018) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 58.1¢ | $738.76 | $708.26 | -$30.5 | 52% 357-335 (692) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 50.1¢ | $611.33 | $638.79 | +$27.45 | 46% 781-919 (1700) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $653.5 | $481.46 | -$4.38 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 63.7¢ | $437.01 | $415.83 | -$21.18 | 50% 4444-4507 (8951) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 55.4¢ | $477.56 | $535.44 | +$77.93 | 52% 2212-2063 (4275) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $331.07 | $615.47 | +$284.41 | 51% 1914-1874 (3788) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 56.7¢ | $357.38 | $400.84 | +$43.46 | 32% 689-1456 (2145) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 44.6¢ | $300.66 | $410.01 | +$109.35 | 53% 4544-3951 (8495) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 70¢ | $290.75 | — | -$241 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 29.8¢ | $315.87 | $577.71 | +$261.85 | 51% 1428-1364 (2792) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.8¢ | $143.68 | — | -$143.68 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.8¢ | $172.18 | $577.71 | +$405.53 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 38.8¢ | $228.19 | $400.44 | +$172.25 | 46% 1056-1227 (2283) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 57.8¢ | $180.22 | $215.49 | +$44.39 | 50% 757-743 (1500) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 38.4¢ | $285.37 | $127.26 | -$105.65 | 52% 865-801 (1666) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.9¢ | $71.13 | $127.26 | +$60.27 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.4¢ | $165.92 | — | -$165.92 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 30.2¢ | $166.05 | $312.86 | +$146.81 | 41% 757-1108 (1865) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 21.6¢ | $97.44 | $197.57 | +$160.08 | 67% 3426-1692 (5118) |
Invested
$8,584
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$30.38
Record
55%
419-346 (765)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
42%
268-370 (638)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
44%
553-691 (1244)
Invested
$1,024.12
Value
$950.51
PnL
-$73.61
Record
47%
1019-1148 (2167)
Invested
$1,189.92
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$168.51
Record
51%
5018-4727 (9745)
Invested
$1,183
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$174.66
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$905.65
Value
—
PnL
-$905.65
Record
44%
729-932 (1661)
Invested
$950
Value
$945
PnL
+$0.55
Record
52%
3418-3216 (6634)
Both legs:
Invested
$868.23
Value
$877
PnL
+$8.77
Record
98%
3774-79 (3853)
Invested
$1,033.31
Value
$820.66
PnL
-$212.66
Record
55%
4420-3598 (8018)
Invested
$738.76
Value
$708.26
PnL
-$30.5
Record
52%
357-335 (692)
Invested
$611.33
Value
$638.79
PnL
+$27.45
Record
46%
781-919 (1700)
Invested
$653.5
Value
$481.46
PnL
-$4.38
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Invested
$437.01
Value
$415.83
PnL
-$21.18
Record
50%
4444-4507 (8951)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$477.56
Value
$535.44
PnL
+$77.93
Record
52%
2212-2063 (4275)
Invested
$331.07
Value
$615.47
PnL
+$284.41
Record
51%
1914-1874 (3788)
Invested
$357.38
Value
$400.84
PnL
+$43.46
Record
32%
689-1456 (2145)
FairValueMachineInvested
$300.66
Value
$410.01
PnL
+$109.35
Record
53%
4544-3951 (8495)
Invested
$290.75
Value
—
PnL
-$241
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
Invested
$315.87
Value
$577.71
PnL
+$261.85
Record
51%
1428-1364 (2792)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$228.19
Value
$400.44
PnL
+$172.25
Record
46%
1056-1227 (2283)
OhioAIInvested
$180.22
Value
$215.49
PnL
+$44.39
Record
50%
757-743 (1500)
Invested
$285.37
Value
$127.26
PnL
-$105.65
Record
52%
865-801 (1666)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$166.05
Value
$312.86
PnL
+$146.81
Record
41%
757-1108 (1865)
Invested
$97.44
Value
$197.57
PnL
+$160.08
Record
67%
3426-1692 (5118)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.5K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $950.51
blue.birds
Up — $1.0K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $877
stepahead
Up — $820.66