Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 30%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$-16.6K

Smart Money Signal

16 of 53 top traders (30%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares18,265

Combined PnL$-17.0K

Down37 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares9,344

Combined PnL+$352.82

Up — 30%Down — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$9.0K	—	$-8.8K	55% 424-347 (771)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.5K	42% 270-377 (647)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.5K	45% 556-693 (1249)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 73.2¢	$915.56	$867.64	-$43.71	44% 732-940 (1672)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$868.48	$759.04	-$109.44	59% 1030-707 (1737)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.5¢	$474.48	$759.04	+$284.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.3¢	$394	—	-$394
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 70.4¢	$845.24	$794.77	-$50.48	47% 1027-1156 (2183)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 79.8¢	$758.64	$710.45	-$48.19	52% 5030-4731 (9761)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 84.3¢	$750.56	$624.74	-$125.82	50% 4458-4532 (8990)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 72.6¢	$613.48	$523.64	-$37.94	52% 365-338 (703)
MO mo-money	Downavg 68.5¢	$466.29	$592.98	+$126.68	51% 1429-1393 (2822)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.8¢	$582.65	$499.1	+$3.96	54% 3579-3041 (6620)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 83.7¢	$475.69	$422.77	-$43.62	52% 2228-2078 (4306)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64.3¢	$406.88	$376.28	-$30.6	46% 784-927 (1711)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 67.2¢	$339.4	$434.5	+$95.11	54% 4551-3955 (8506)
ST stepahead	Downavg 66¢	$331.23	$363.58	+$32.36	55% 4430-3604 (8034)
ohioism	Downavg 67.8¢	$233.74	$324.97	+$92.53	47% 2109-2347 (4456)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 82.7¢	$325.26	$328.19	+$2.93	32% 694-1463 (2157)
AL almach	Downavg 89¢	$488.46	$307.77	-$18.77	51% 1438-1373 (2811)
BoneOhio	Downavg 86¢	$216.5	$251.88	+$35.38	71% 1617-670 (2287)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 92.5¢	$283.82	$297.74	+$13.92	48% 2164-2388 (4552)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 15.9¢	$284.55	$76	-$208.55	46% 1062-1233 (2295)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.9¢	$220.71	—	-$220.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 84¢	$63.84	$76	+$12.16
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.1¢	$253.94	$245.68	-$8.26	51% 3214-3142 (6356)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 58.5¢	$170.87	$196.39	+$25.52	52% 872-806 (1678)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 55.3¢	$104.1	$188.15	+$84.05	47% 2202-2452 (4654)
OhioAI	Downavg 69.1¢	$126.12	$121.09	+$3.85	50% 761-751 (1512)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,990

Value

—

PnL

$-8.8K

Record

55%

424-347 (771)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

42%

270-377 (647)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

45%

556-693 (1249)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$915.56

Value

$867.64

PnL

-$43.71

Record

44%

732-940 (1672)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$868.48

Value

$759.04

PnL

-$109.44

Record

59%

1030-707 (1737)

Both legs:

Down$474.4862.5¢+$284.56

Up$39429.3¢-$394

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$845.24

Value

$794.77

PnL

-$50.48

Record

47%

1027-1156 (2183)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$758.64

Value

$710.45

PnL

-$48.19

Record

52%

5030-4731 (9761)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$750.56

Value

$624.74

PnL

-$125.82

Record

50%

4458-4532 (8990)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$613.48

Value

$523.64

PnL

-$37.94

Record

52%

365-338 (703)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$466.29

Value

$592.98

PnL

+$126.68

Record

51%

1429-1393 (2822)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$582.65

Value

$499.1

PnL

+$3.96

Record

54%

3579-3041 (6620)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$475.69

Value

$422.77

PnL

-$43.62

Record

52%

2228-2078 (4306)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$406.88

Value

$376.28

PnL

-$30.6

Record

46%

784-927 (1711)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$339.4

Value

$434.5

PnL

+$95.11

Record

54%

4551-3955 (8506)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$331.23

Value

$363.58

PnL

+$32.36

Record

55%

4430-3604 (8034)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$233.74

Value

$324.97

PnL

+$92.53

Record

47%

2109-2347 (4456)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$325.26

Value

$328.19

PnL

+$2.93

Record

32%

694-1463 (2157)

almach

Down

Invested

$488.46

Value

$307.77

PnL

-$18.77

Record

51%

1438-1373 (2811)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$216.5

Value

$251.88

PnL

+$35.38

Record

71%

1617-670 (2287)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$283.82

Value

$297.74

PnL

+$13.92

Record

48%

2164-2388 (4552)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$284.55

Value

$76

PnL

-$208.55

Record

46%

1062-1233 (2295)

Both legs:

Up$220.7115.9¢-$220.71

Down$63.8484¢+$12.16

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$253.94

Value

$245.68

PnL

-$8.26

Record

51%

3214-3142 (6356)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$170.87

Value

$196.39

PnL

+$25.52

Record

52%

872-806 (1678)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$104.1

Value

$188.15

PnL

+$84.05

Record

47%

2202-2452 (4654)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$126.12

Value

$121.09

PnL

+$3.85

Record

50%

761-751 (1512)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 53 top traders (30%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6734924c...ebb9c5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794693000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $867.64

-$43.71

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$109.44

CrouchPredictions

Down — $794.77

-$50.48

blue.birds

Down — $710.45

-$48.19

asdcaxz

Down — $624.74

-$125.82

gansinimen

Down — $523.64

-$37.94

mo-money

Down — $592.98

+$126.68

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