Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

37 of 48 top Polymarket traders hold Up (77%) · Up at 100¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.4K

Combined PnL

-$227.67

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 37 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

37 of 48 top traders (77%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares9,870

Combined PnL-$219.21

Up37 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares14,141

Combined PnL-$8.46

Down — 23%Up — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.8K	-$32.19	55% 419-346 (765)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$7.42	42% 268-370 (638)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$10.51	44% 553-691 (1244)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	$2.8K	+$874.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.0K	-$884.79
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$8.03	98% 3774-79 (3853)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$814.58	$818.7	+$4.11	99% 840-7 (847)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$903.06	$757.5	-$145.57	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$638.06	$515	-$123.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 53¢	$265	$242.5	-$22.5
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 70.4¢	$802.89	$728.6	-$74.29	47% 1019-1148 (2167)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 56.6¢	$639.91	$691.93	+$67.02	44% 729-932 (1661)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 61.7¢	$648.64	$554.12	-$92.71	59% 1023-702 (1725)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 52.9¢	$582.45	$493.82	+$5.69	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 72.2¢	$511.69	$455.08	-$44.95	51% 5018-4727 (9745)
AL almach	Upavg 97¢	$1.2K	$449.45	-$161.55	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 60.8¢	$362.67	$401	+$51.16	46% 781-919 (1700)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 52.6¢	$271.43	$342.18	+$70.75	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Downavg 42.9¢	$564.94	$338.3	-$144.59	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
ST stepahead	Upavg 59.4¢	$272.01	$298.94	+$26.93	55% 4420-3598 (8018)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 66¢	$252.75	$246.02	-$6.74	50% 763-767 (1530)
BO bosona	Upavg 62.3¢	$945.14	$228.41	-$53.46	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
machinelearned	Upavg 66.2¢	$204.16	$219.69	+$15.53	46% 1056-1227 (2283)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 66.4¢	$218.65	$189.66	-$28.99	53% 4544-3951 (8495)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.4¢	$110.94	$121.07	+$10.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$107.71	$68.58	-$39.12
ohioism	Upavg 52.3¢	$83.8	$159.32	+$75.52	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 71.7¢	$129.78	$146.87	+$17.09	32% 689-1456 (2145)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 75.1¢	$152.16	$143.31	-$8.85	46% 700-825 (1525)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$159.8	$142.31	-$17.49	52% 865-801 (1666)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.4¢	$75.72	$86.55	+$10.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.5¢	$84.09	$55.76	-$28.33
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 52.2¢	$121.81	$137.98	+$42.18	44% 2099-2693 (4792)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,888

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$32.19

Record

55%

419-346 (765)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$7.42

Record

42%

268-370 (638)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$10.51

Record

44%

553-691 (1244)

Both legs:

Up$1,927.2450¢+$874.28

Down$1,863.8850¢-$884.79

hoodquant

Invested

$1,588.95

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$8.03

Record

98%

3774-79 (3853)

THG.

Invested

$814.58

Value

$818.7

PnL

+$4.11

Record

99%

840-7 (847)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$903.06

Value

$757.5

PnL

-$145.57

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

Both legs:

Up$638.0663.8¢-$123.07

Down$26553¢-$22.5

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$802.89

Value

$728.6

PnL

-$74.29

Record

47%

1019-1148 (2167)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$639.91

Value

$691.93

PnL

+$67.02

Record

44%

729-932 (1661)

Bonereaper

Invested

$648.64

Value

$554.12

PnL

-$92.71

Record

59%

1023-702 (1725)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$582.45

Value

$493.82

PnL

+$5.69

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

blue.birds

Invested

$511.69

Value

$455.08

PnL

-$44.95

Record

51%

5018-4727 (9745)

almach

Invested

$1,155.89

Value

$449.45

PnL

-$161.55

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

GoodFallen

Invested

$362.67

Value

$401

PnL

+$51.16

Record

46%

781-919 (1700)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$271.43

Value

$342.18

PnL

+$70.75

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

asdcaxzCTR

Down

Invested

$564.94

Value

$338.3

PnL

-$144.59

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

stepahead

Invested

$272.01

Value

$298.94

PnL

+$26.93

Record

55%

4420-3598 (8018)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$252.75

Value

$246.02

PnL

-$6.74

Record

50%

763-767 (1530)

bosona

Invested

$945.14

Value

$228.41

PnL

-$53.46

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

machinelearned

Invested

$204.16

Value

$219.69

PnL

+$15.53

Record

46%

1056-1227 (2283)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$218.65

Value

$189.66

PnL

-$28.99

Record

53%

4544-3951 (8495)

Both legs:

Up$110.9466.4¢+$10.14

Down$107.7143.2¢-$39.12

ohioism

Invested

$83.8

Value

$159.32

PnL

+$75.52

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

ply-pm0

Invested

$129.78

Value

$146.87

PnL

+$17.09

Record

32%

689-1456 (2145)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$152.16

Value

$143.31

PnL

-$8.85

Record

46%

700-825 (1525)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$159.8

Value

$142.31

PnL

-$17.49

Record

52%

865-801 (1666)

Both legs:

Up$75.7263.4¢+$10.84

Down$84.0941.5¢-$28.33

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$121.81

Value

$137.98

PnL

+$42.18

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

37 of 48 top traders (77%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.