Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (68%). 10 of 33 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

10 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Up (30%) · Up at 33¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 14

Up33¢Down67¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 30%

15 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.6K

Combined PnL

$60.34

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 32.5¢

-35% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 33 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Down 68%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up33%

Down68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,534

Combined PnL+$4.89

Down23 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,739

Combined PnL+$55.45

Up — 30%Down — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$9.0K	$8.9K	-$1.58	55% 419-346 (765)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	-$0.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	-$1.28
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0	42% 268-370 (638)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$9.75	44% 553-691 (1244)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$6.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$16.5
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0	52% 3418-3216 (6634)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 44.2¢	$446.21	$521.24	+$80.53	47% 1019-1148 (2167)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.2¢	$262.93	$297.54	+$35.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 40¢	$178.86	$223.7	+$44.84
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$551.36	$500.55	+$2.32	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$250.19	$324.59	+$74.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$248.03	$175.97	-$72.58
AL almach	Downavg 46.7¢	$437.94	$476.05	+$38.11	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$507.04	$463.93	-$43.12	59% 1023-702 (1725)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.4¢	$198.12	$243.95	+$45.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$308.93	$219.97	-$88.96
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 43.8¢	$335.79	$358.17	+$22.38	55% 4420-3598 (8018)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$158.77	$214.76	+$55.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.8¢	$177.02	$143.41	-$33.61
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 42.9¢	$304.65	$344.98	+$40.33	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$222.55	$259.51	+$36.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$82.1	$85.47	+$3.37
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 49.5¢	$282.17	$325.32	+$43.15	44% 729-932 (1661)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$190.47	$248.35	+$57.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.3¢	$91.69	$76.97	-$14.72
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 53.2¢	$210.3	$223.17	+$12.87	46% 1056-1227 (2283)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$174.96	$197.79	+$22.83	46% 781-919 (1700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$114.71	$149.66	+$34.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$60.24	$48.13	-$12.11
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$166.91	$175.26	+$8.36	52% 865-801 (1666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$88.29	$110.61	+$22.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.2¢	$78.62	$64.65	-$13.97
BoneOhioARB<$100	Downavg 66¢	$110.99	$119.74	+$8.75	71% 1607-666 (2273)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$65.99	$60.49	-$5.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 30¢	$45	$59.24	+$14.25
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$114.69	$114.86	+$0.16	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$64.69	$69.86	+$5.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$50	$45	-$5
BL blue.birds	Downavg 65.3¢	$117.67	$110.17	-$7.5	51% 5018-4727 (9745)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$99.54	$104.36	+$4.82	53% 4544-3951 (8495)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$61.74	$70.87	+$9.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.1¢	$37.8	$33.49	-$4.31
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 43.5¢	$112.04	$97.91	-$14.12	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.5¢	$80.39	$65.66	-$14.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$31.65	$32.25	+$0.6
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$73.85	$76.89	+$3.04	51% 769-749 (1518)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$40.61	$53.13	+$12.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$33.24	$23.76	-$9.48
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$63.05	$63.37	+$2.07	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$62.23	$62.97	+$0.74	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$67.52	$61.24	+$1.53	57% 289-221 (510)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 46¢	$61.38	$56.86	+$13.75	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$38.6	$39.62	+$1.02	32% 689-1456 (2145)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,964

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$1.58

Record

55%

419-346 (765)

Both legs:

Down$4,479.550¢-$0.3

Up$4,468.5750¢-$1.28

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

268-370 (638)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$9.75

Record

44%

553-691 (1244)

Both legs:

Up$1,889.0650¢+$6.76

Down$1,876.0950¢-$16.5

soswald1CTR

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

3418-3216 (6634)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$446.21

Value

$521.24

PnL

+$80.53

Record

47%

1019-1148 (2167)

Both legs:

Down$262.9344.2¢+$35.69

Up$178.8640¢+$44.84

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$551.36

Value

$500.55

PnL

+$2.32

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Down$250.1949.7¢+$74.9

Up$248.0350¢-$72.58

almach

Down

Invested

$437.94

Value

$476.05

PnL

+$38.11

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$507.04

Value

$463.93

PnL

-$43.12

Record

59%

1023-702 (1725)

Both legs:

Down$198.1252.4¢+$45.84

Up$308.9349.9¢-$88.96

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$335.79

Value

$358.17

PnL

+$22.38

Record

55%

4420-3598 (8018)

Both legs:

Down$158.7747.7¢+$55.99

Up$177.0243.8¢-$33.61

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$304.65

Value

$344.98

PnL

+$40.33

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

Both legs:

Down$222.5542.9¢+$36.96

Up$82.148¢+$3.37

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$282.17

Value

$325.32

PnL

+$43.15

Record

44%

729-932 (1661)

Both legs:

Down$190.4749.5¢+$57.87

Up$91.6942.3¢-$14.72

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$210.3

Value

$223.17

PnL

+$12.87

Record

46%

1056-1227 (2283)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$174.96

Value

$197.79

PnL

+$22.83

Record

46%

781-919 (1700)

Both legs:

Down$114.7149.4¢+$34.94

Up$60.2444.4¢-$12.11

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$166.91

Value

$175.26

PnL

+$8.36

Record

52%

865-801 (1666)

Both legs:

Down$88.2951.5¢+$22.33

Up$78.6243.2¢-$13.97

BoneOhioARB<$100

Down

Invested

$110.99

Value

$119.74

PnL

+$8.75

Record

71%

1607-666 (2273)

Both legs:

Down$65.9966¢-$5.5

Up$4530¢+$14.25

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$114.69

Value

$114.86

PnL

+$0.16

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

Both legs:

Invested

$117.67

Value

$110.17

PnL

-$7.5

Record

51%

5018-4727 (9745)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$99.54

Value

$104.36

PnL

+$4.82

Record

53%

4544-3951 (8495)

Both legs:

Down$61.7456.2¢+$9.13

Up$37.840.1¢-$4.31

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$112.04

Value

$97.91

PnL

-$14.12

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

Both legs:

Up$80.3943.5¢-$14.72

Down$31.6563.3¢+$0.6

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$73.85

Value

$76.89

PnL

+$3.04

Record

51%

769-749 (1518)

Both legs:

Down$40.6149.3¢+$12.52

Up$33.2449.7¢-$9.48

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$63.05

Value

$63.37

PnL

+$2.07

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$62.23

Value

$62.97

PnL

+$0.74

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

Alpharo28<$100

Down

Invested

$67.52

Value

$61.24

PnL

+$1.53

Record

57%

289-221 (510)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$61.38

Value

$56.86

PnL

+$13.75

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$38.6

Value

$39.62

PnL

+$1.02

Record

32%

689-1456 (2145)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 33 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Down 68%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$185.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

285.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.