Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Up 84%
3 arb excluded
$31.1K
$828.25
Smart Money Signal
46 of 55 top traders (84%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.9K | +$10.3 | 55% 419-346 (765) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$12.68 | 42% 268-370 (638) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$155.73 | 44% 553-691 (1244) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$2.31 | 52% 1395-1293 (2688) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$17.33 | 99% 840-7 (847) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$6.4 | 52% 3418-3216 (6634) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 77.2¢ | $768.15 | $964.08 | +$195.93 | 46% 1056-1227 (2283) |
BO bosona | Upavg 60.7¢ | $497.73 | $818.06 | +$320.33 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 69.2¢ | $715.59 | $700.93 | -$14.66 | 44% 729-932 (1661) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 69.4¢ | $658.89 | $640.84 | -$18.05 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $592.08 | $491.88 | +$9.86 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 59.2¢ | $349.49 | $478.51 | +$143.87 | 47% 1019-1148 (2167) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 70.3¢ | $512.69 | $475.87 | -$35.54 | 51% 5018-4727 (9745) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 88¢ | $430.62 | $477.3 | +$46.68 | 51% 1417-1386 (2803) |
AL almach | Upavg 65.4¢ | $334.66 | $437.95 | +$103.29 | 51% 1428-1364 (2792) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 74.4¢ | $277.6 | $294.23 | +$16.63 | 50% 4444-4507 (8951) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 61.9¢ | $230.51 | $272.82 | +$51.76 | 52% 865-801 (1666) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99.6¢ | $245.52 | $246.55 | +$1.03 | 49% 1545-1582 (3127) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 75.1¢ | $220.31 | $231.83 | +$11.53 | 55% 4420-3598 (8018) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 58.3¢ | $188.71 | $233.15 | +$44.43 | 52% 2212-2063 (4275) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 38.4¢ | $201.72 | $133.96 | -$67.76 | 46% 781-919 (1700) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.4¢ | $128.2 | — | -$128.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.9¢ | $73.52 | $133.96 | +$60.45 | |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 98¢ | $171 | $174.54 | +$3.54 | 52% 2695-2461 (5156) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 93¢ | $127.5 | $137.17 | +$9.67 | 38% 1439-2312 (3751) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 70.7¢ | $118.68 | $129.71 | +$11.03 | 53% 4544-3951 (8495) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 98.6¢ | $175 | $96.44 | +$6.71 | 63% 4035-2416 (6451) |
Invested
$8,882
Value
$8.9K
PnL
+$10.3
Record
55%
419-346 (765)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$12.68
Record
42%
268-370 (638)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$155.73
Record
44%
553-691 (1244)
Invested
$2,303.54
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$2.31
Record
52%
1395-1293 (2688)
Invested
$1,715.93
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$17.33
Record
99%
840-7 (847)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$6.4
Record
52%
3418-3216 (6634)
machinelearnedInvested
$768.15
Value
$964.08
PnL
+$195.93
Record
46%
1056-1227 (2283)
Invested
$497.73
Value
$818.06
PnL
+$320.33
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
Invested
$715.59
Value
$700.93
PnL
-$14.66
Record
44%
729-932 (1661)
Invested
$658.89
Value
$640.84
PnL
-$18.05
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$592.08
Value
$491.88
PnL
+$9.86
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Invested
$349.49
Value
$478.51
PnL
+$143.87
Record
47%
1019-1148 (2167)
Invested
$512.69
Value
$475.87
PnL
-$35.54
Record
51%
5018-4727 (9745)
Invested
$430.62
Value
$477.3
PnL
+$46.68
Record
51%
1417-1386 (2803)
Invested
$334.66
Value
$437.95
PnL
+$103.29
Record
51%
1428-1364 (2792)
Invested
$277.6
Value
$294.23
PnL
+$16.63
Record
50%
4444-4507 (8951)
Invested
$230.51
Value
$272.82
PnL
+$51.76
Record
52%
865-801 (1666)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$245.52
Value
$246.55
PnL
+$1.03
Record
49%
1545-1582 (3127)
Invested
$220.31
Value
$231.83
PnL
+$11.53
Record
55%
4420-3598 (8018)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$188.71
Value
$233.15
PnL
+$44.43
Record
52%
2212-2063 (4275)
Invested
$201.72
Value
$133.96
PnL
-$67.76
Record
46%
781-919 (1700)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$171
Value
$174.54
PnL
+$3.54
Record
52%
2695-2461 (5156)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$127.5
Value
$137.17
PnL
+$9.67
Record
38%
1439-2312 (3751)
FairValueMachineInvested
$118.68
Value
$129.71
PnL
+$11.03
Record
53%
4544-3951 (8495)
Invested
$175
Value
$96.44
PnL
+$6.71
Record
63%
4035-2416 (6451)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.9K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
Up — $3.9K
0x50f7
Up — $2.3K
THG.
Up — $1.7K
soswald1
Up — $950
machinelearned
Up — $964.08
bosona
Up — $818.06
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $700.93
Bonereaper
Up — $640.84