Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
53
Up 43%
5 arb excluded
$13.7K
$-19.0K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 53 top traders (43%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-8.5K | 55% 419-346 (765) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.7K | +$224.68 | 42% 268-370 (638) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 44% 553-691 (1244) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 54.6¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 44% 729-932 (1661) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 51.7¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 69¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$121.78 | 47% 1019-1148 (2167) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 46.7¢ | $940.65 | — | -$940.65 | 51% 5018-4727 (9745) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 52.8¢ | $909.84 | — | -$909.84 | 46% 781-919 (1700) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 61.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$99.51 | 51% 1417-1386 (2803) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Upavg 40.2¢ | $841.15 | — | -$835.81 | 52% 357-335 (692) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 72.2¢ | $784.31 | — | -$784.31 | 55% 4420-3598 (8018) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 54.2¢ | $708.18 | $666 | -$42.18 | 32% 689-1456 (2145) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 93.9¢ | $720.84 | $673.5 | -$47.34 | 71% 1607-666 (2273) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 51.3¢ | $568.06 | $584.7 | +$16.64 | 50% 4444-4507 (8951) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 52.7¢ | $476.05 | — | -$476.05 | 52% 2212-2063 (4275) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 52.2¢ | $634.74 | — | -$470.09 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 44.1¢ | $597.22 | $419.27 | -$177.96 | 53% 4544-3951 (8495) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.9¢ | $242.66 | $419.27 | +$176.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.1¢ | $354.56 | — | -$354.56 | |
AL almach | Downavg 52.8¢ | $453.53 | $459.01 | +$9.57 | 51% 1428-1364 (2792) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 54.5¢ | $326.1 | $412.1 | +$130.72 | 52% 865-801 (1666) |
BO bosona | Downavg 67.4¢ | $1.0K | $439.93 | -$187.44 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 54.4¢ | $349.33 | $376.1 | +$26.77 | 41% 757-1108 (1865) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 27.2¢ | $121.92 | $283.69 | +$161.76 | 46% 1056-1227 (2283) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 62.4¢ | $269.86 | $250.78 | -$19.08 | 67% 3426-1692 (5118) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR | Upavg 56.3¢ | $231.19 | — | -$231.19 | 51% 769-749 (1518) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 38.6¢ | $149.81 | $268.71 | +$118.9 | 48% 2150-2369 (4519) |
Invested
$8,608
Value
—
PnL
$-8.5K
Record
55%
419-346 (765)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$224.68
Record
42%
268-370 (638)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
44%
553-691 (1244)
Invested
$1,093.23
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
44%
729-932 (1661)
Invested
$1,113.79
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$1,275.91
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$121.78
Record
47%
1019-1148 (2167)
Invested
$940.65
Value
—
PnL
-$940.65
Record
51%
5018-4727 (9745)
Invested
$909.84
Value
—
PnL
-$909.84
Record
46%
781-919 (1700)
Invested
$1,020.56
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$99.51
Record
51%
1417-1386 (2803)
Invested
$841.15
Value
—
PnL
-$835.81
Record
52%
357-335 (692)
Invested
$784.31
Value
—
PnL
-$784.31
Record
55%
4420-3598 (8018)
Invested
$708.18
Value
$666
PnL
-$42.18
Record
32%
689-1456 (2145)
BoneOhioInvested
$720.84
Value
$673.5
PnL
-$47.34
Record
71%
1607-666 (2273)
Invested
$568.06
Value
$584.7
PnL
+$16.64
Record
50%
4444-4507 (8951)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$476.05
Value
—
PnL
-$476.05
Record
52%
2212-2063 (4275)
Invested
$634.74
Value
—
PnL
-$470.09
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$597.22
Value
$419.27
PnL
-$177.96
Record
53%
4544-3951 (8495)
Both legs:
Invested
$453.53
Value
$459.01
PnL
+$9.57
Record
51%
1428-1364 (2792)
Invested
$326.1
Value
$412.1
PnL
+$130.72
Record
52%
865-801 (1666)
Invested
$1,040.89
Value
$439.93
PnL
-$187.44
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$349.33
Value
$376.1
PnL
+$26.77
Record
41%
757-1108 (1865)
machinelearnedInvested
$121.92
Value
$283.69
PnL
+$161.76
Record
46%
1056-1227 (2283)
Invested
$269.86
Value
$250.78
PnL
-$19.08
Record
67%
3426-1692 (5118)
Invested
$231.19
Value
—
PnL
-$231.19
Record
51%
769-749 (1518)
Invested
$149.81
Value
$268.71
PnL
+$118.9
Record
48%
2150-2369 (4519)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.7K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
Down — $1.1K
gansinimen
CTRUp — $0