Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 34% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 36%

26 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.9K

Combined PnL

$-5.4K

Smart Money Signal

12 of 35 top traders (34%)26 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,462

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Down23 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,959

Combined PnL$-7.1K

Up — 34%Down — 66%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.9K	+$18.95	55% 419-346 (765)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.4K	$8.9K	+$4.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.4K	—	$-4.4K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.6K	+$683.38	42% 268-370 (638)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.3K	$4.6K	+$2.4K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.1K	—	$-1.7K
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$36.03	99% 840-7 (847)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	+$332.25	44% 553-691 (1244)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.7K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.4K
HO hoodquantCTR	Downavg 98.2¢	$2.7K	—	$-2.7K	98% 3774-79 (3853)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 70.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$82.07	51% 5018-4727 (9745)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.5¢	$455.34	$1.4K	+$943.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.3¢	$861.66	—	-$861.66
cryingbabydicer87	Upavg 98.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$11.81	49% 1545-1582 (3127)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 65.4¢	$822.04	$915.63	+$93.59	44% 729-932 (1661)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.6¢	$289.26	$915.63	+$626.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.4¢	$532.78	—	-$532.78
MO mo-money	Upavg 15.8¢	$502.29	$1.2K	+$1.0K	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 41.3¢	$771.66	$939.44	+$167.79	46% 781-919 (1700)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.3¢	$388.43	$939.44	+$551.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.8¢	$383.23	—	-$383.23
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$725.04	$846.11	+$121.07	52% 357-335 (692)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$394.2	$846.11	+$451.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.2¢	$330.83	—	-$330.83
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$675.32	$626.9	-$36.08	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$289.3	$626.9	+$337.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$374.05	—	-$373.68
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 58.5¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.5K	59% 1023-702 (1725)
ST stepaheadCTR	Downavg 71.8¢	$539.51	—	-$539.51	55% 4420-3598 (8018)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 5.7¢	$169.1	$585.71	+$853.02	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
└ Up leg	Upavg 5.7¢	$33.61	$585.71	+$966.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 5.3¢	$31.01	—	-$113.86
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 48.8¢	$496.63	$579.75	+$86.71	41% 757-1108 (1865)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 63.3¢	$680.22	$508.79	-$171.43	53% 4544-3951 (8495)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$261.81	$508.79	+$246.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$418.41	—	-$418.41
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 22.3¢	$492.78	$585.18	+$430.64	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.3¢	$130.77	$585.18	+$670.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.1¢	$94.63	—	-$239.38
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 56.6¢	$686.64	—	-$472.89	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 63.2¢	$761.37	—	-$687.02	52% 865-801 (1666)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Upavg 54.1¢	$413.9	$450.94	+$37.04	48% 727-781 (1508)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.1¢	$244.02	$450.94	+$206.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.4¢	$169.89	—	-$169.89
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Downavg 72.3¢	$210.49	—	-$197.09	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 48.9¢	$225.46	$340.19	+$140.18	51% 1914-1874 (3788)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 75.7¢	$336.14	$383.48	+$47.33	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$126.61	$383.48	+$256.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.7¢	$209.53	—	-$209.53
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR	Downavg 73¢	$254.53	—	-$254.53	51% 784-763 (1547)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,942

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$18.95

Record

55%

419-346 (765)

Both legs:

Up$4,449.5750¢+$4.5K

Down$4,446.6250¢$-4.4K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$683.38

Record

42%

268-370 (638)

Both legs:

Up$2,308.4350¢+$2.4K

Down$2,073.7350¢$-1.7K

THG.

Invested

$3,429.97

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$36.03

Record

99%

840-7 (847)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$332.25

Record

44%

553-691 (1244)

Both legs:

Up$1,688.7150¢+$1.7K

Down$1,567.650¢$-1.4K

hoodquantCTR

Down

Invested

$2,685.71

Value

—

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

98%

3774-79 (3853)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,317

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$82.07

Record

51%

5018-4727 (9745)

Both legs:

Up$455.3432.5¢+$943.73

Down$861.6670.3¢-$861.66

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$1,003.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.81

Record

49%

1545-1582 (3127)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$822.04

Value

$915.63

PnL

+$93.59

Record

44%

729-932 (1661)

Both legs:

Up$289.2631.6¢+$626.37

Down$532.7865.4¢-$532.78

mo-money

Invested

$502.29

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$771.66

Value

$939.44

PnL

+$167.79

Record

46%

781-919 (1700)

Both legs:

Up$388.4341.3¢+$551.01

Down$383.2360.8¢-$383.23

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$725.04

Value

$846.11

PnL

+$121.07

Record

52%

357-335 (692)

Both legs:

Up$394.246.6¢+$451.9

Down$330.8346.2¢-$330.83

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$675.32

Value

$626.9

PnL

-$36.08

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

Both legs:

Up$289.346.1¢+$337.6

Down$374.0559.9¢-$373.68

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$1,599.74

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

59%

1023-702 (1725)

stepaheadCTR

Down

Invested

$539.51

Value

—

PnL

-$539.51

Record

55%

4420-3598 (8018)

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$169.1

Value

$585.71

PnL

+$853.02

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

Both legs:

Up$33.615.7¢+$966.89

Down$31.015.3¢-$113.86

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$496.63

Value

$579.75

PnL

+$86.71

Record

41%

757-1108 (1865)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$680.22

Value

$508.79

PnL

-$171.43

Record

53%

4544-3951 (8495)

Both legs:

Up$261.8151.5¢+$246.99

Down$418.4163.3¢-$418.41

almachARB<$100

Invested

$492.78

Value

$585.18

PnL

+$430.64

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

Both legs:

Up$130.7722.3¢+$670.02

Down$94.6317.1¢-$239.38

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$686.64

Value

—

PnL

-$472.89

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$761.37

Value

—

PnL

-$687.02

Record

52%

865-801 (1666)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Invested

$413.9

Value

$450.94

PnL

+$37.04

Record

48%

727-781 (1508)

Both legs:

Up$244.0254.1¢+$206.92

Down$169.8951.4¢-$169.89

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Down

Invested

$210.49

Value

—

PnL

-$197.09

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$225.46

Value

$340.19

PnL

+$140.18

Record

51%

1914-1874 (3788)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$336.14

Value

$383.48

PnL

+$47.33

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

Both legs:

Up$126.6133¢+$256.86

Down$209.5375.7¢-$209.53

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR

Down

Invested

$254.53

Value

—

PnL

-$254.53

Record

51%

784-763 (1547)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 35 top traders (34%)26 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5b6e1120...9fcdce

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794690900

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Up — $3.5K

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $0

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $1.0K

+$11.81

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$93.59

mo-money

Up — $1.2K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded