Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 53 top traders (72%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down38 traders

Total Value$26.8K

Total Shares26,753

Combined PnL+$471.46

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,905

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.9K	-$5.44	55% 419-346 (765)
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$47.63	42% 268-370 (638)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.2K	$4.5K	+$2.4K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.4K
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$34.63	99% 840-7 (847)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	+$107.26	44% 553-691 (1244)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.3K	+$1.7K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.6K
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$18.52	52% 1395-1293 (2688)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$38.18	52% 357-335 (692)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.6¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$579.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.2¢	$541.03	—	-$541.03
BO bosona	Downavg 83.8¢	$2.7K	$1.8K	-$203.39	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 62.5¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$115.21	47% 1019-1148 (2167)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$37.43	59% 1023-702 (1725)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 60.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$27.27	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 44.2¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	44% 729-932 (1661)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$900	-$20.5	52% 3418-3216 (6634)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$450	$900	+$454.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 53.9¢	$889.41	$931.79	+$42.39	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 60.9¢	$642.63	$757.9	+$119.06	53% 4544-3951 (8495)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 39.9¢	$799.09	$581.25	-$217.83	46% 781-919 (1700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$365.19	$581.25	+$216.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.9¢	$433.89	—	-$433.89
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 60.1¢	$538.62	$557.57	+$42.04	32% 689-1456 (2145)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 38.4¢	$666.55	—	-$479.82	51% 5018-4727 (9745)
MO mo-money	Downavg 68¢	$819.18	$634.82	+$162.41	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 49.6¢	$645.43	$495.26	+$15.13	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
ST stepahead	Downavg 54.6¢	$443.08	$476.18	+$33.1	55% 4420-3598 (8018)
AL almach	Downavg 84.2¢	$1.7K	$540.01	+$29.93	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 73.4¢	$398.21	$339.43	-$57.98	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 66.3¢	$314.35	$301.76	-$8.89	41% 757-1108 (1865)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 66.1¢	$255.48	$292.86	+$37.38	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 42.8¢	$389.19	—	-$347.41	52% 865-801 (1666)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,911

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$5.44

Record

55%

419-346 (765)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$47.63

Record

42%

268-370 (638)

Both legs:

Down$2,241.9350¢+$2.4K

Up$2,388.1350¢$-2.4K

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,428.37

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$34.63

Record

99%

840-7 (847)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$107.26

Record

44%

553-691 (1244)

Both legs:

Down$1,671.6850¢+$1.7K

Up$1,669.6350¢$-1.6K

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,833.27

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$18.52

Record

52%

1395-1293 (2688)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,698.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$38.18

Record

52%

357-335 (692)

Both legs:

Down$1,157.5666.6¢+$579.22

Up$541.0332.2¢-$541.03

bosona

Down

Invested

$2,717.24

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$203.39

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,739.62

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$115.21

Record

47%

1019-1148 (2167)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,055.3

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$37.43

Record

59%

1023-702 (1725)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,002.27

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$27.27

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,187.78

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

44%

729-932 (1661)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$900

PnL

-$20.5

Record

52%

3418-3216 (6634)

Both legs:

Invested

$889.41

Value

$931.79

PnL

+$42.39

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$642.63

Value

$757.9

PnL

+$119.06

Record

53%

4544-3951 (8495)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$799.09

Value

$581.25

PnL

-$217.83

Record

46%

781-919 (1700)

Both legs:

Down$365.1962.8¢+$216.06

Up$433.8939.9¢-$433.89

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$538.62

Value

$557.57

PnL

+$42.04

Record

32%

689-1456 (2145)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$666.55

Value

—

PnL

-$479.82

Record

51%

5018-4727 (9745)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$819.18

Value

$634.82

PnL

+$162.41

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$645.43

Value

$495.26

PnL

+$15.13

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$443.08

Value

$476.18

PnL

+$33.1

Record

55%

4420-3598 (8018)

almach

Down

Invested

$1,746.76

Value

$540.01

PnL

+$29.93

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$398.21

Value

$339.43

PnL

-$57.98

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$314.35

Value

$301.76

PnL

-$8.89

Record

41%

757-1108 (1865)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$255.48

Value

$292.86

PnL

+$37.38

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$389.19

Value

—

PnL

-$347.41

Record

52%

865-801 (1666)

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 53 top traders (72%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb3756588...662d5e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794690600

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $8.9K

-$5.44

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$47.63

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$34.63

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$107.26

0x50f7

Down — $1.9K

+$18.52

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$38.18

bosona

Down — $1.8K

-$203.39

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.6K

-$115.21

Bonereaper

Down — $1.0K

-$37.43

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $1.0K

+$27.27

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