Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Down 83%
5 arb excluded
$17.5K
$-7.8K
Smart Money Signal
43 of 53 top traders (81%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.7K | -$0.15 | 55% 419-346 (765) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 42% 268-370 (638) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.5K | 44% 553-691 (1244) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 80.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$247.18 | 49% 2276-2326 (4602) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 80.3¢ | $797.99 | $873.69 | +$75.7 | 47% 1019-1148 (2167) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 65¢ | $570.41 | $590.69 | +$57.26 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $571.56 | $577.33 | +$5.77 | 98% 3774-79 (3853) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $599.53 | $499.24 | +$2.95 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 78.5¢ | $513.34 | $476.01 | -$37.34 | 51% 5018-4727 (9745) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 70.2¢ | $394.87 | $400.8 | +$5.93 | 55% 4420-3598 (8018) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 88¢ | $403.74 | $347.17 | -$11.14 | 52% 2212-2063 (4275) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 80.4¢ | $351.09 | $356.44 | +$5.35 | 44% 729-932 (1661) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 82.6¢ | $752.79 | $310.98 | +$37.41 | 51% 1417-1386 (2803) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 74.9¢ | $277.89 | $287.54 | +$9.65 | 51% 769-749 (1518) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 83.4¢ | $269.65 | $241.49 | -$28.16 | 52% 357-335 (692) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 77.4¢ | $240.2 | $232.35 | +$6.36 | 52% 865-801 (1666) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 84.8¢ | $235.6 | $229.98 | -$5.62 | 46% 781-919 (1700) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 74.6¢ | $170.57 | $175.24 | +$4.67 | 50% 4444-4507 (8951) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $157.35 | $134.98 | -$22.37 | 44% 2099-2693 (4792) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 76.4¢ | $103.19 | $134.98 | +$31.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.9¢ | $54.16 | — | -$54.16 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 82.4¢ | $147.27 | $135.49 | -$11.78 | 51% 781-755 (1536) |
BO bosona | Downavg 83.3¢ | $517.87 | $122.73 | -$125.25 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $83.78 | $126.02 | +$42.24 | 50% 763-767 (1530) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 74.6¢ | $92.27 | $76 | -$16.27 | 53% 4544-3951 (8495) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.6¢ | $56.67 | $76 | +$19.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.6¢ | $35.6 | — | -$35.6 | |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 29.1¢ | $214.08 | $30.99 | -$183.1 | 46% 1056-1227 (2283) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.1¢ | $195.8 | — | -$195.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59¢ | $18.28 | $30.99 | +$12.7 | |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $76.7 | $77.5 | +$10.7 | 58% 5007-3677 (8684) |
Invested
$8,777
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$0.15
Record
55%
419-346 (765)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
42%
268-370 (638)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.5K
Record
44%
553-691 (1244)
Invested
$1,185.65
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$247.18
Record
49%
2276-2326 (4602)
Invested
$797.99
Value
$873.69
PnL
+$75.7
Record
47%
1019-1148 (2167)
Invested
$570.41
Value
$590.69
PnL
+$57.26
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$571.56
Value
$577.33
PnL
+$5.77
Record
98%
3774-79 (3853)
Invested
$599.53
Value
$499.24
PnL
+$2.95
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Invested
$513.34
Value
$476.01
PnL
-$37.34
Record
51%
5018-4727 (9745)
Invested
$394.87
Value
$400.8
PnL
+$5.93
Record
55%
4420-3598 (8018)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$403.74
Value
$347.17
PnL
-$11.14
Record
52%
2212-2063 (4275)
Invested
$351.09
Value
$356.44
PnL
+$5.35
Record
44%
729-932 (1661)
Invested
$752.79
Value
$310.98
PnL
+$37.41
Record
51%
1417-1386 (2803)
Invested
$277.89
Value
$287.54
PnL
+$9.65
Record
51%
769-749 (1518)
Invested
$269.65
Value
$241.49
PnL
-$28.16
Record
52%
357-335 (692)
Invested
$240.2
Value
$232.35
PnL
+$6.36
Record
52%
865-801 (1666)
Invested
$235.6
Value
$229.98
PnL
-$5.62
Record
46%
781-919 (1700)
Invested
$170.57
Value
$175.24
PnL
+$4.67
Record
50%
4444-4507 (8951)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$157.35
Value
$134.98
PnL
-$22.37
Record
44%
2099-2693 (4792)
Both legs:
Invested
$147.27
Value
$135.49
PnL
-$11.78
Record
51%
781-755 (1536)
Invested
$517.87
Value
$122.73
PnL
-$125.25
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
Invested
$83.78
Value
$126.02
PnL
+$42.24
Record
50%
763-767 (1530)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$92.27
Value
$76
PnL
-$16.27
Record
53%
4544-3951 (8495)
Both legs:
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$214.08
Value
$30.99
PnL
-$183.1
Record
46%
1056-1227 (2283)
Both legs:
Invested
$76.7
Value
$77.5
PnL
+$10.7
Record
58%
5007-3677 (8684)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.7K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.4K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $873.69
Bonereaper
Down — $590.69
hoodquant
Down — $577.33
ByteBadger92
Down — $499.24
blue.birds
Down — $476.01
stepahead
Down — $400.8