Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 29%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

$-17.1K

Smart Money Signal

14 of 49 top traders (29%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares18,874

Combined PnL$-17.9K

Down35 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares13,578

Combined PnL+$848.33

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	—	$-8.8K	55% 419-346 (765)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.7K	42% 268-370 (638)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.6K	44% 553-691 (1244)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 73.7¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$113.03	47% 1019-1148 (2167)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 57.6¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$112.68	59% 1023-702 (1725)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 75.6¢	$1.1K	$954.74	-$179.63	51% 5018-4727 (9745)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 64.3¢	$961.37	$923.66	-$29.82	52% 357-335 (692)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 53.3¢	$1.4K	$904.34	+$618.28	49% 2276-2326 (4602)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 55¢	$833.62	$836.64	+$3.02	44% 729-932 (1661)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 74.4¢	$804.4	$814.26	+$16.79	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 60.9¢	$704.97	$782.08	+$77.11	46% 781-919 (1700)
AL almach	Downavg 75.8¢	$1.1K	$615.57	-$22.29	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
ST stepahead	Downavg 62.9¢	$582.03	$628.35	+$46.31	55% 4420-3598 (8018)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$704.25	$485.18	+$14.88	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$259.38	$485.18	+$254.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.8¢	$216.83	—	-$239.67
FairValueMachine	Downavg 69¢	$537.16	$441.83	-$88.58	53% 4544-3951 (8495)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 54.9¢	$443.25	$425.01	-$18.24	52% 865-801 (1666)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 40.7¢	$379.84	—	-$379.84	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
MO mo-money	Downavg 88.7¢	$1.2K	$360.72	+$118.58	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 63.6¢	$567.19	$337.75	-$31.72	32% 689-1456 (2145)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 45.6¢	$247.17	$320.42	+$73.26	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$335.59	$286.57	-$49.03	46% 700-825 (1525)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$180.72	$286.57	+$105.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$154.87	—	-$154.87
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$1.2K	$182.01	-$417.75	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$349.47	—	-$410.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 81¢	$147.44	$182.01	-$6.87
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 66¢	$205.53	$256.68	+$51.15	48% 727-781 (1508)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$215.98	$221.37	+$5.39	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.5¢	$98.59	$221.37	+$122.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$117.39	—	-$117.39
ohioism	Downavg 44.1¢	$150.33	$255	+$104.67	47% 2089-2333 (4422)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,799

Value

—

PnL

$-8.8K

Record

55%

419-346 (765)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

42%

268-370 (638)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

44%

553-691 (1244)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$2,055.11

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$113.03

Record

47%

1019-1148 (2167)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,469.62

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$112.68

Record

59%

1023-702 (1725)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$1,134.38

Value

$954.74

PnL

-$179.63

Record

51%

5018-4727 (9745)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$961.37

Value

$923.66

PnL

-$29.82

Record

52%

357-335 (692)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,401.09

Value

$904.34

PnL

+$618.28

Record

49%

2276-2326 (4602)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$833.62

Value

$836.64

PnL

+$3.02

Record

44%

729-932 (1661)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$804.4

Value

$814.26

PnL

+$16.79

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$704.97

Value

$782.08

PnL

+$77.11

Record

46%

781-919 (1700)

almach

Down

Invested

$1,081.68

Value

$615.57

PnL

-$22.29

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$582.03

Value

$628.35

PnL

+$46.31

Record

55%

4420-3598 (8018)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$704.25

Value

$485.18

PnL

+$14.88

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Down$259.3853.5¢+$254.55

Up$216.8344.8¢-$239.67

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$537.16

Value

$441.83

PnL

-$88.58

Record

53%

4544-3951 (8495)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$443.25

Value

$425.01

PnL

-$18.24

Record

52%

865-801 (1666)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$379.84

Value

—

PnL

-$379.84

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,239.73

Value

$360.72

PnL

+$118.58

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$567.19

Value

$337.75

PnL

-$31.72

Record

32%

689-1456 (2145)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$247.17

Value

$320.42

PnL

+$73.26

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$335.59

Value

$286.57

PnL

-$49.03

Record

46%

700-825 (1525)

Both legs:

Down$180.7263.1¢+$105.84

Up$154.8748.2¢-$154.87

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$1,154.45

Value

$182.01

PnL

-$417.75

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

Both legs:

Up$349.4763.5¢-$410.88

Down$147.4481¢-$6.87

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$205.53

Value

$256.68

PnL

+$51.15

Record

48%

727-781 (1508)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$215.98

Value

$221.37

PnL

+$5.39

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

Both legs:

Down$98.5944.5¢+$122.78

Up$117.3949.8¢-$117.39

ohioism

Down

Invested

$150.33

Value

$255

PnL

+$104.67

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 49 top traders (29%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcc8b889a...908de1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794690000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.8K

-$113.03

Bonereaper

Down — $1.6K

+$112.68

blue.birds

Down — $954.74

-$179.63

gansinimen

Down — $923.66

-$29.82

uninformedfloww

Down — $904.34

+$618.28

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $836.64

+$3.02

asdcaxz

Down — $814.26

+$16.79

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