Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

19 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.3K

Combined PnL

$-8.7K

Smart Money Signal

26 of 43 top traders (60%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares15,517

Combined PnL+$5.6K

Up26 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares17,607

Combined PnL$-14.3K

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.8K	+$0.77	55% 419-346 (765)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.4K	$8.8K	+$4.4K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.4K	—	$-4.4K
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 34.3¢	$1.8K	$5.2K	+$3.4K	49% 2276-2326 (4602)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	+$20.96	42% 268-370 (638)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-2.9K	44% 553-691 (1244)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 57.2¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.2K	59% 1023-702 (1725)
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 52.9¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K	52% 357-335 (692)
AL almach	Downavg 63.2¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	+$566.7	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 71¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$102.5	44% 729-932 (1661)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.1¢	$348.84	$1.3K	+$938.95
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 73¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$104.52	51% 5018-4727 (9745)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73¢	$873.57	—	-$873.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.9¢	$255.11	$1.0K	+$769.06
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 67.4¢	$940.46	—	-$920.14	53% 4544-3951 (8495)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 48.3¢	$971.29	—	-$971.29	47% 1019-1148 (2167)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 69.7¢	$937.89	$853.02	-$84.88	46% 781-919 (1700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.9¢	$246.55	$853.02	+$606.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.7¢	$691.35	—	-$691.35
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 62.6¢	$616.63	$808.08	+$191.45	46% 700-825 (1525)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$759.04	$807.62	+$48.59	52% 865-801 (1666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.1¢	$340.32	$807.62	+$467.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.8¢	$418.71	—	-$418.71
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$766.53	$697.21	-$69.32	41% 757-1108 (1865)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.6¢	$261.86	$697.21	+$435.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$504.67	—	-$504.67
MO mo-money	Downavg 35.8¢	$1.1K	$916.06	+$373.1	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 55.4¢	$670.99	—	-$670.99	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
BO bosona	Downavg 33.1¢	$645.32	$851.89	+$557.78	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$556.55	$718.82	+$162.27	50% 763-767 (1530)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.1¢	$345.97	$718.82	+$372.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.6¢	$210.58	—	-$210.58
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 55.6¢	$608.33	—	-$465.73	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
AN antsaslykuCTR	Upavg 60.7¢	$574.79	—	-$574.79	37% 1362-2297 (3659)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$565.73	$495.93	+$25.72	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$240.48	—	-$230.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.6¢	$235.91	$495.93	+$256.26
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 65¢	$541.75	$466.75	-$75	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.6¢	$217.61	$466.75	+$249.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$324.14	—	-$324.14
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 59.2¢	$664.96	—	-$248.69	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 67.2¢	$436.44	$353.48	-$82.96	51% 769-749 (1518)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.1¢	$163.02	$353.48	+$190.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.2¢	$273.42	—	-$273.42

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,854

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$0.77

Record

55%

419-346 (765)

Both legs:

Down$4,415.2850¢+$4.4K

Up$4,40650¢$-4.4K

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,792.6

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

49%

2276-2326 (4602)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$20.96

Record

42%

268-370 (638)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

44%

553-691 (1244)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$2,357.11

Value

—

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

59%

1023-702 (1725)

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$1,886.63

Value

—

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

52%

357-335 (692)

almach

Down

Invested

$1,955.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$566.7

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,390.29

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$102.5

Record

44%

729-932 (1661)

Both legs:

Up$1,041.4471¢$-1.0K

Down$348.8427.1¢+$938.95

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$1,128.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$104.52

Record

51%

5018-4727 (9745)

Both legs:

Up$873.5773¢-$873.57

Down$255.1124.9¢+$769.06

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$940.46

Value

—

PnL

-$920.14

Record

53%

4544-3951 (8495)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$971.29

Value

—

PnL

-$971.29

Record

47%

1019-1148 (2167)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$937.89

Value

$853.02

PnL

-$84.88

Record

46%

781-919 (1700)

Both legs:

Down$246.5528.9¢+$606.47

Up$691.3569.7¢-$691.35

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$616.63

Value

$808.08

PnL

+$191.45

Record

46%

700-825 (1525)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$759.04

Value

$807.62

PnL

+$48.59

Record

52%

865-801 (1666)

Both legs:

Down$340.3242.1¢+$467.3

Up$418.7155.8¢-$418.71

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$766.53

Value

$697.21

PnL

-$69.32

Record

41%

757-1108 (1865)

Both legs:

Down$261.8637.6¢+$435.34

Up$504.6767.6¢-$504.67

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,115.43

Value

$916.06

PnL

+$373.1

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$670.99

Value

—

PnL

-$670.99

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

bosona

Down

Invested

$645.32

Value

$851.89

PnL

+$557.78

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$556.55

Value

$718.82

PnL

+$162.27

Record

50%

763-767 (1530)

Both legs:

Down$345.9748.1¢+$372.85

Up$210.5869.6¢-$210.58

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$608.33

Value

—

PnL

-$465.73

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

antsaslykuCTR

Invested

$574.79

Value

—

PnL

-$574.79

Record

37%

1362-2297 (3659)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$565.73

Value

$495.93

PnL

+$25.72

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Up$240.4850.1¢-$230.54

Down$235.9147.6¢+$256.26

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$541.75

Value

$466.75

PnL

-$75

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

Both legs:

Down$217.6146.6¢+$249.14

Up$324.1465¢-$324.14

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$664.96

Value

—

PnL

-$248.69

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$436.44

Value

$353.48

PnL

-$82.96

Record

51%

769-749 (1518)

Both legs:

Down$163.0246.1¢+$190.46

Up$273.4267.2¢-$273.42

Smart Money Signal

26 of 43 top traders (60%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb895e322...c398e8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794689700

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0.77

uninformedfloww

Down — $5.2K

+$3.4K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.5K

machine-earning

Up — $0

Bonereaper

Up — $0

gansinimen

Up — $0

almach

Down — $1.4K

+$566.7

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Up — $0