Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

46 of 56 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,412

Combined PnL$-8.8K

Down46 traders

Total Value$30.3K

Total Shares30,328

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Up — 18%Down — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-8.6K	55% 414-341 (755)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	+$176.22	42% 264-364 (628)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$358.03	44% 553-691 (1244)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$36.94	71% 1595-654 (2249)
BO bosona	Downavg 64.7¢	$1.9K	$3.0K	+$1.1K	51% 4658-4490 (9148)
AL almach	Downavg 63.4¢	$1.7K	$2.7K	+$997.1	51% 1414-1359 (2773)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.3¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$43	98% 3730-79 (3809)
MO mo-money	Downavg 54.4¢	$613.66	$1.1K	+$493.21	50% 1405-1380 (2785)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$19.43	51% 3392-3202 (6594)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 72.6¢	$648.76	$893.12	+$244.36	50% 2267-2294 (4561)
machinelearned	Downavg 68.9¢	$533.67	$769.91	+$236.24	46% 1049-1224 (2273)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 68.7¢	$563.59	$641.86	+$78.28	44% 727-924 (1651)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 69.1¢	$568.86	$646.65	+$77.78	59% 1016-699 (1715)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 90.2¢	$551.94	$612	+$60.06	42% 1686-2284 (3970)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 77.5¢	$494.26	$554.02	+$59.76	32% 684-1451 (2135)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.5¢	$518.98	$496.85	+$16.54	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 54.3¢	$358.68	$477.62	+$118.95	52% 352-331 (683)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 64.9¢	$447.55	$466.95	+$19.4	51% 5011-4721 (9732)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 59¢	$271.05	$365.71	+$94.66	46% 778-912 (1690)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 60.3¢	$283.83	$337.38	+$53.55	51% 3173-3101 (6274)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 46.1¢	$195.59	$421.48	+$225.88	47% 1012-1142 (2154)
ST stepahead	Downavg 53¢	$210.4	$287.99	+$77.59	55% 4411-3594 (8005)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 65.4¢	$225.66	$289.72	+$64.06	52% 861-795 (1656)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 84.8¢	$184.22	$217.19	+$32.98	51% 352-342 (694)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 63.3¢	$175.9	$211.41	+$35.51	53% 4534-3951 (8485)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$133.9	$211.41	+$77.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 30¢	$42	—	-$42