Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 33%

24 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.4K

Combined PnL

$-9.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 33 top traders (33%)24 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares11,401

Combined PnL$-10.1K

Down11 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,242

Combined PnL+$315.82

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	—	$-8.5K	55% 419-346 (765)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$128.2	42% 268-370 (638)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$154.12	44% 553-691 (1244)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	$3.8K	+$1.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$34.59	99% 840-7 (847)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 55.7¢	$920.55	$817.28	-$103.27	59% 1023-702 (1725)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$332.89	$817.28	+$484.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.7¢	$587.65	—	-$587.65
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 53¢	$681.51	$675.19	-$6.32	44% 729-932 (1661)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.7¢	$301.73	$675.19	+$373.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$379.78	—	-$379.78
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 53¢	$579.46	$551.05	-$28.41	51% 5018-4727 (9745)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.7¢	$213.16	$551.05	+$337.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$366.3	—	-$366.3
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$578.07	$638.87	+$60.81	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.2¢	$231.49	$638.87	+$407.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$346.58	—	-$346.58
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 57.4¢	$535.92	$514.69	-$21.23	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.4¢	$289.78	—	-$289.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.8¢	$246.14	$514.69	+$268.55
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$593.74	$469.23	+$1.65	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$227.46	$469.23	+$242.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$249.47	—	-$240.69
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 66¢	$642.82	$312.71	-$330.11	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66¢	$469.44	—	-$469.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$173.38	$312.71	+$139.33
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 47.1¢	$337.37	$442.93	+$105.56	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$208.83	$442.93	+$234.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.4¢	$128.54	—	-$128.54
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 37.1¢	$509.38	—	-$390.58	47% 1019-1148 (2167)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$346.11	$422.57	+$76.46	46% 781-919 (1700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.6¢	$163.26	$422.57	+$259.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$182.85	—	-$182.85
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 57¢	$344.74	$325.28	-$19.46	32% 689-1456 (2145)
OhioAI	Downavg 49.4¢	$205.38	$235.28	+$46.33	50% 757-743 (1500)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 55.4¢	$252.64	$196.71	-$55.93	52% 865-801 (1666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.4¢	$103.02	$196.71	+$93.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.4¢	$149.61	—	-$149.61
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR	Upavg 25.3¢	$183.95	—	-$183.95	51% 769-749 (1518)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 55.6¢	$241.4	—	-$241.4	55% 4420-3598 (8018)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 53.3¢	$136.6	$110	-$26.6	46% 1056-1227 (2283)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.3¢	$93.2	—	-$93.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.5¢	$43.4	$110	+$66.6
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$271.12	$100.95	-$37.92	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$123.07	—	-$125.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.6¢	$35.92	$100.95	+$87.58
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$115.02	$171.92	+$56.9	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.7¢	$75.2	$171.92	+$96.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.9¢	$39.82	—	-$39.82
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 48.8¢	$109.21	$110.87	+$1.66	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.3¢	$33.57	$110.87	+$77.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$75.64	—	-$75.64
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$69.01	$123.73	+$54.72	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$53.29	$123.73	+$70.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.7¢	$15.72	—	-$15.72
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$119.17	$99.3	-$19.88	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.7¢	$33.47	$99.3	+$65.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$85.7	—	-$85.7

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,614

Value

—

PnL

$-8.5K

Record

55%

419-346 (765)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$128.2

Record

42%

268-370 (638)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$154.12

Record

44%

553-691 (1244)

Both legs:

Down$1,920.7650¢+$1.9K

Up$1,780.9350¢$-1.8K

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,424.41

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$34.59

Record

99%

840-7 (847)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$920.55

Value

$817.28

PnL

-$103.27

Record

59%

1023-702 (1725)

Both legs:

Down$332.8940.7¢+$484.39

Up$587.6555.7¢-$587.65

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$681.51

Value

$675.19

PnL

-$6.32

Record

44%

729-932 (1661)

Both legs:

Down$301.7344.7¢+$373.46

Up$379.7853¢-$379.78

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$579.46

Value

$551.05

PnL

-$28.41

Record

51%

5018-4727 (9745)

Both legs:

Down$213.1638.7¢+$337.89

Up$366.353¢-$366.3

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$578.07

Value

$638.87

PnL

+$60.81

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

Both legs:

Down$231.4936.2¢+$407.38

Up$346.5865.2¢-$346.58

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$535.92

Value

$514.69

PnL

-$21.23

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

Both legs:

Up$289.7857.4¢-$289.78

Down$246.1447.8¢+$268.55

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$593.74

Value

$469.23

PnL

+$1.65

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Down$227.4648.5¢+$242.34

Up$249.4750.4¢-$240.69

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$642.82

Value

$312.71

PnL

-$330.11

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

Both legs:

Up$469.4466¢-$469.44

Down$173.3855.4¢+$139.33

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$337.37

Value

$442.93

PnL

+$105.56

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

Both legs:

Down$208.8347.1¢+$234.1

Up$128.5430.4¢-$128.54

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$509.38

Value

—

PnL

-$390.58

Record

47%

1019-1148 (2167)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$346.11

Value

$422.57

PnL

+$76.46

Record

46%

781-919 (1700)

Both legs:

Down$163.2638.6¢+$259.31

Up$182.8556.1¢-$182.85

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$344.74

Value

$325.28

PnL

-$19.46

Record

32%

689-1456 (2145)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$205.38

Value

$235.28

PnL

+$46.33

Record

50%

757-743 (1500)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$252.64

Value

$196.71

PnL

-$55.93

Record

52%

865-801 (1666)

Both legs:

Down$103.0252.4¢+$93.68

Up$149.6155.4¢-$149.61

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR

Invested

$183.95

Value

—

PnL

-$183.95

Record

51%

769-749 (1518)

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$241.4

Value

—

PnL

-$241.4

Record

55%

4420-3598 (8018)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$136.6

Value

$110

PnL

-$26.6

Record

46%

1056-1227 (2283)

Both legs:

Up$93.253.3¢-$93.2

Down$43.439.5¢+$66.6

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$271.12

Value

$100.95

PnL

-$37.92

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

Both legs:

Up$123.0751.9¢-$125.5

Down$35.9235.6¢+$87.58

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$115.02

Value

$171.92

PnL

+$56.9

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

Both legs:

Down$75.243.7¢+$96.72

Up$39.8242.9¢-$39.82

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$109.21

Value

$110.87

PnL

+$1.66

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

Both legs:

Down$33.5730.3¢+$77.29

Up$75.6448.8¢-$75.64

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$69.01

Value

$123.73

PnL

+$54.72

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

Both legs:

Down$53.2943.1¢+$70.44

Up$15.7212.7¢-$15.72

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$119.17

Value

$99.3

PnL

-$19.88

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

Both legs:

Down$33.4733.7¢+$65.82

Up$85.750.4¢-$85.7

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 33 top traders (33%)24 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x6a93adbe...592503

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794689100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-8.5K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.9K

+$128.2

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$154.12

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$34.59

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$103.27

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded