Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
66
Down 58%
$18.9K
$-16.3K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 66 top traders (59%)27 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.4K | 55% 419-346 (765) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 42% 268-370 (638) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.5K | -$102.51 | 44% 553-691 (1244) |
TH THG. | Downavg 98.9¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$39.31 | 99% 840-7 (847) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 66.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$46.88 | 51% 5018-4727 (9745) |
AL almach | Downavg 85.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | -$73.21 | 51% 1428-1364 (2792) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 51.7¢ | $834.88 | $902.46 | +$67.58 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$915.8 | 52% 3418-3216 (6634) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 74.9¢ | $947.8 | $695.62 | -$133.38 | 47% 1019-1148 (2167) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 57.7¢ | $635.73 | $696.27 | +$60.54 | 44% 729-932 (1661) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 59.2¢ | $718.32 | $652.73 | -$65.59 | 50% 4444-4507 (8951) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 81.3¢ | $774.41 | $648.69 | -$125.72 | 52% 357-335 (692) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99¢ | $598.01 | $604.05 | +$6.04 | 49% 1545-1582 (3127) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 55.4¢ | $487.1 | $490.92 | +$3.82 | 46% 781-919 (1700) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.6¢ | $635.79 | $488.3 | -$3.75 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 54.8¢ | $406.06 | $462.32 | +$56.26 | 32% 689-1456 (2145) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 60.8¢ | $408.04 | $424.97 | +$16.93 | 55% 4420-3598 (8018) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 73.4¢ | $865.21 | $421.66 | +$4.79 | 52% 2212-2063 (4275) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Upavg 55.4¢ | $343.77 | — | -$343.77 | 48% 727-781 (1508) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $258.1 | $314.99 | +$56.88 | 51% 769-749 (1518) |
BO bosona | Downavg 85.7¢ | $1.4K | $299.43 | -$271.94 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 82.3¢ | $664.85 | $298.09 | -$39.18 | 51% 1417-1386 (2803) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 69.2¢ | $337.79 | $286.86 | -$50.93 | 52% 865-801 (1666) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 54.9¢ | $168.79 | $232.22 | +$63.43 | 53% 4544-3951 (8495) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR | Upavg 49.3¢ | $264.72 | — | -$264.72 | 46% 700-825 (1525) |
Invested
$8,852
Value
—
PnL
$-8.4K
Record
55%
419-346 (765)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
42%
268-370 (638)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$102.51
Record
44%
553-691 (1244)
Invested
$3,416.69
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$39.31
Record
99%
840-7 (847)
Invested
$1,279.95
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$46.88
Record
51%
5018-4727 (9745)
Invested
$1,353.39
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$73.21
Record
51%
1428-1364 (2792)
Invested
$834.88
Value
$902.46
PnL
+$67.58
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$915.8
Record
52%
3418-3216 (6634)
Invested
$947.8
Value
$695.62
PnL
-$133.38
Record
47%
1019-1148 (2167)
Invested
$635.73
Value
$696.27
PnL
+$60.54
Record
44%
729-932 (1661)
Invested
$718.32
Value
$652.73
PnL
-$65.59
Record
50%
4444-4507 (8951)
Invested
$774.41
Value
$648.69
PnL
-$125.72
Record
52%
357-335 (692)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$598.01
Value
$604.05
PnL
+$6.04
Record
49%
1545-1582 (3127)
Invested
$487.1
Value
$490.92
PnL
+$3.82
Record
46%
781-919 (1700)
Invested
$635.79
Value
$488.3
PnL
-$3.75
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Invested
$406.06
Value
$462.32
PnL
+$56.26
Record
32%
689-1456 (2145)
Invested
$408.04
Value
$424.97
PnL
+$16.93
Record
55%
4420-3598 (8018)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$865.21
Value
$421.66
PnL
+$4.79
Record
52%
2212-2063 (4275)
Invested
$343.77
Value
—
PnL
-$343.77
Record
48%
727-781 (1508)
Invested
$258.1
Value
$314.99
PnL
+$56.88
Record
51%
769-749 (1518)
Invested
$1,359.85
Value
$299.43
PnL
-$271.94
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
Invested
$664.85
Value
$298.09
PnL
-$39.18
Record
51%
1417-1386 (2803)
Invested
$337.79
Value
$286.86
PnL
-$50.93
Record
52%
865-801 (1666)
FairValueMachineInvested
$168.79
Value
$232.22
PnL
+$63.43
Record
53%
4544-3951 (8495)
Invested
$264.72
Value
—
PnL
-$264.72
Record
46%
700-825 (1525)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.5K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
blue.birds
Down — $1.2K
almach
Down — $1.1K
Bonereaper
Down — $902.46
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $695.62
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $696.27