Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

39 of 54 top Polymarket traders hold Up (72%) · Up at 100¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.5K

Combined PnL

-$213.44

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 99.5¢

+44% since entry · 39 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

39 of 54 top traders (72%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up39 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares20,555

Combined PnL+$153.64

Down15 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares10,012

Combined PnL-$367.08

Up — 72%Down — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.5K	$7.7K	+$9.31	55% 414-341 (755)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.4K	-$142.18	42% 264-364 (628)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$51.78	99% 837-7 (844)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	-$27.42	44% 553-691 (1244)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 81.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$52.47	47% 1012-1142 (2154)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 57.7¢	$727.11	$787	+$59.88	59% 1016-699 (1715)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$711.81	$715.41	+$3.59	98% 3730-79 (3809)
BO bosona	Upavg 92.9¢	$955.88	$709.86	+$10.22	51% 4658-4490 (9148)
AL almach	Upavg 91.7¢	$727.12	$591.43	-$48.65	51% 1414-1359 (2773)
ST stepahead	Upavg 64.6¢	$583.53	$585.44	+$1.91	55% 4411-3594 (8005)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 83.5¢	$618.19	$579.69	-$38.51	50% 4423-4495 (8918)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 52.6¢	$520.79	$523.97	+$3.18	44% 727-924 (1651)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 53.4¢	$622.46	$513.31	+$3.96	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 71.7¢	$388.61	$402.63	+$14.01	51% 5011-4721 (9732)
MO mo-money	Upavg 90.1¢	$882.49	$348.83	-$195.12	50% 1405-1380 (2785)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 59¢	$323.38	$342.57	+$19.19	46% 778-912 (1690)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 55.8¢	$287.41	$338.4	+$77.88	53% 4534-3951 (8485)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 43.3¢	$292.45	$240.86	-$23.1	50% 2267-2294 (4561)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 61.1¢	$179.89	$232.48	+$52.6	51% 765-743 (1508)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 46¢	$250.93	$220.27	+$92.97	52% 2196-2051 (4247)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 88.8¢	$150.32	$155.34	+$4.95	63% 4009-2399 (6408)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 95¢	$315.84	$150.2	-$13.36	32% 684-1451 (2135)
OhioAIARB<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$150.17	$142.73	-$7.43	50% 752-738 (1490)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.6¢	$80.25	$111.66	+$31.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.6¢	$69.92	$31.08	-$38.84
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 54¢	$84.85	$130.41	+$45.56	48% 2176-2405 (4581)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$135.02	$128.03	-$6.99	40% 750-1105 (1855)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$70.39	$70.76	+$0.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.1¢	$64.63	$57.27	-$7.35

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,538

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$9.31

Record

55%

414-341 (755)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$142.18

Record

42%

264-364 (628)

THG.

Invested

$3,417.48

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$51.78

Record

99%

837-7 (844)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$27.42

Record

44%

553-691 (1244)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,128.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$52.47

Record

47%

1012-1142 (2154)

Bonereaper

Invested

$727.11

Value

$787

PnL

+$59.88

Record

59%

1016-699 (1715)

hoodquant

Invested

$711.81

Value

$715.41

PnL

+$3.59

Record

98%

3730-79 (3809)

bosona

Invested

$955.88

Value

$709.86

PnL

+$10.22

Record

51%

4658-4490 (9148)

almach

Invested

$727.12

Value

$591.43

PnL

-$48.65

Record

51%

1414-1359 (2773)

stepahead

Invested

$583.53

Value

$585.44

PnL

+$1.91

Record

55%

4411-3594 (8005)

asdcaxz

Invested

$618.19

Value

$579.69

PnL

-$38.51

Record

50%

4423-4495 (8918)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$520.79

Value

$523.97

PnL

+$3.18

Record

44%

727-924 (1651)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$622.46

Value

$513.31

PnL

+$3.96

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

blue.birds

Invested

$388.61

Value

$402.63

PnL

+$14.01

Record

51%

5011-4721 (9732)

mo-money

Invested

$882.49

Value

$348.83

PnL

-$195.12

Record

50%

1405-1380 (2785)

GoodFallen

Invested

$323.38

Value

$342.57

PnL

+$19.19

Record

46%

778-912 (1690)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$287.41

Value

$338.4

PnL

+$77.88

Record

53%

4534-3951 (8485)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$292.45

Value

$240.86

PnL

-$23.1

Record

50%

2267-2294 (4561)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$179.89

Value

$232.48

PnL

+$52.6

Record

51%

765-743 (1508)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$250.93

Value

$220.27

PnL

+$92.97

Record

52%

2196-2051 (4247)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$150.32

Value

$155.34

PnL

+$4.95

Record

63%

4009-2399 (6408)

ply-pm0

Invested

$315.84

Value

$150.2

PnL

-$13.36

Record

32%

684-1451 (2135)

OhioAIARB<$100

Invested

$150.17

Value

$142.73

PnL

-$7.43

Record

50%

752-738 (1490)

Both legs:

Up$80.2558.6¢+$31.41

Down$69.9241.6¢-$38.84

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$84.85

Value

$130.41

PnL

+$45.56

Record

48%

2176-2405 (4581)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$135.02

Value

$128.03

PnL

-$6.99

Record

40%

750-1105 (1855)

Both legs:

Down$70.3948.2¢+$0.37

Up$64.6358.1¢-$7.35

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

39 of 54 top traders (72%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.