Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (64%). 20 of 35 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET

20 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Up (57%) · Up at 37¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 14

Up37¢Down63¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

16 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.2K

Combined PnL

$98.96

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 36.5¢

-28% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 35 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Down 64%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up37%

Down64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,603

Combined PnL-$20.26

Down15 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,000

Combined PnL+$119.22

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.4K	-$7.58	55% 414-341 (755)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.2K	$5.0K	+$812
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.2K	$3.4K	-$819.58
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0	42% 264-364 (628)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$29.4	44% 553-691 (1244)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$382.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$352.62
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 40.1¢	$871.61	$879.77	+$23.35	50% 2267-2294 (4561)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.1¢	$478.37	$483.48	+$4.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.6¢	$377.21	$396.29	+$19.08
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$516.83	$570.36	+$53.53	59% 1016-699 (1715)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.5¢	$256.2	$358.95	+$102.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$260.63	$211.41	-$49.22
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$529.88	$499.62	-$5.84	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$250.54	$298.97	+$47.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$250.45	$200.65	-$53.15
BO bosona	Downavg 60¢	$264.44	$262.16	-$2.28	51% 4658-4490 (9148)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 32.9¢	$152.21	$248.37	+$96.16	47% 1012-1142 (2154)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 44.9¢	$191.17	$228.78	+$37.62	52% 861-795 (1656)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$255.54	$227.75	-$27.8	51% 5011-4721 (9732)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$166.13	$156.79	-$9.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.2¢	$89.41	$70.96	-$18.45
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 55¢	$240.49	$216.47	-$24.01	51% 1414-1359 (2773)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55¢	$162.45	$159.49	-$2.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$78.04	$56.98	-$21.06
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$231.91	$201.3	-$30.61	44% 727-924 (1651)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$190.68	$156.69	-$33.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 55¢	$41.23	$44.61	+$3.37
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 61¢	$222.55	$194.81	-$27.75	52% 352-331 (683)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61¢	$126.91	$123.75	-$3.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.5¢	$95.64	$71.06	-$24.59
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$157.34	$157.3	-$0.04	32% 684-1451 (2135)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$90.73	$102.15	+$11.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$66.61	$55.15	-$11.46
machinelearned	Downavg 60.2¢	$130.11	$128.55	-$1.56	46% 1049-1224 (2273)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$102.33	$98.57	-$3.76	50% 758-762 (1520)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$75.6	$74.97	-$0.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.9¢	$26.73	$23.6	-$3.13
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 60.8¢	$84.62	$81.4	-$3.22	51% 777-760 (1537)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.8¢	$61.99	$47.95	-$14.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.9¢	$22.62	$33.44	+$10.82
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 37.9¢	$69.77	$75.66	+$5.89	46% 778-912 (1690)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.9¢	$42.21	$45.13	+$2.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$27.56	$30.53	+$2.97
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$75.7	$74.78	-$0.93	50% 1405-1380 (2785)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$63.2	$67.47	+$4.27	58% 4999-3667 (8666)
OhioAIARB<$100	Upavg 45.2¢	$64.58	$67.01	+$2.43	50% 752-738 (1490)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$28.15	$34.37	+$6.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$36.43	$32.64	-$3.79
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$57.38	$60	+$2.62	53% 4534-3951 (8485)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$34.58	$35.7	+$1.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 38¢	$22.8	$24.3	+$1.5
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 43¢	$46.09	$54.1	+$8.01	47% 2079-2312 (4391)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.5¢	$20.29	$29.8	+$9.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$25.8	$24.3	-$1.5
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$49.71	$51.9	+$2.19	40% 750-1105 (1855)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 31.5¢	$61.01	$50.38	-$10.63	50% 4423-4495 (8918)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,723

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$7.58

Record

55%

414-341 (755)

Both legs:

Down$4,217.5950¢+$812

Up$4,201.850¢-$819.58

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

264-364 (628)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$29.4

Record

44%

553-691 (1244)

Both legs:

Down$1,967.0550¢+$382.02

Up$1,916.0450¢-$352.62

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$871.61

Value

$879.77

PnL

+$23.35

Record

50%

2267-2294 (4561)

Both legs:

Up$478.3740.1¢+$4.28

Down$377.2156.6¢+$19.08

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$516.83

Value

$570.36

PnL

+$53.53

Record

59%

1016-699 (1715)

Both legs:

Down$256.242.5¢+$102.75

Up$260.6349.9¢-$49.22

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$529.88

Value

$499.62

PnL

-$5.84

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

Both legs:

Down$250.5449.9¢+$47.31

Up$250.4550.6¢-$53.15

bosona

Down

Invested

$264.44

Value

$262.16

PnL

-$2.28

Record

51%

4658-4490 (9148)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$152.21

Value

$248.37

PnL

+$96.16

Record

47%

1012-1142 (2154)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$191.17

Value

$228.78

PnL

+$37.62

Record

52%

861-795 (1656)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$255.54

Value

$227.75

PnL

-$27.8

Record

51%

5011-4721 (9732)

Both legs:

Down$166.1356.2¢-$9.35

Up$89.4159.2¢-$18.45

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$240.49

Value

$216.47

PnL

-$24.01

Record

51%

1414-1359 (2773)

Both legs:

Down$162.4555¢-$2.95

Up$78.0463¢-$21.06

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$231.91

Value

$201.3

PnL

-$30.61

Record

44%

727-924 (1651)

Both legs:

Up$190.6849.3¢-$33.98

Down$41.2355¢+$3.37

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$222.55

Value

$194.81

PnL

-$27.75

Record

52%

352-331 (683)

Both legs:

Invested

$157.34

Value

$157.3

PnL

-$0.04

Record

32%

684-1451 (2135)

Both legs:

Down$90.7352.8¢+$11.42

Up$66.6148.9¢-$11.46

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$130.11

Value

$128.55

PnL

-$1.56

Record

46%

1049-1224 (2273)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$102.33

Value

$98.57

PnL

-$3.76

Record

50%

758-762 (1520)

Both legs:

Down$75.660¢-$0.63

Up$26.7345.9¢-$3.13

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$84.62

Value

$81.4

PnL

-$3.22

Record

51%

777-760 (1537)

Both legs:

Up$61.9960.8¢-$14.04

Down$22.6235.9¢+$10.82

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$69.77

Value

$75.66

PnL

+$5.89

Record

46%

778-912 (1690)

Both legs:

Up$42.2137.9¢+$2.92

Down$27.5653.7¢+$2.97

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$75.7

Value

$74.78

PnL

-$0.93

Record

50%

1405-1380 (2785)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$63.2

Value

$67.47

PnL

+$4.27

Record

58%

4999-3667 (8666)

OhioAIARB<$100

Invested

$64.58

Value

$67.01

PnL

+$2.43

Record

50%

752-738 (1490)

Both legs:

Down$28.1548.7¢+$6.22

Up$36.4345.2¢-$3.79

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$57.38

Value

$60

PnL

+$2.62

Record

53%

4534-3951 (8485)

Both legs:

Down$34.5857.6¢+$1.12

Up$22.838¢+$1.5

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$46.09

Value

$54.1

PnL

+$8.01

Record

47%

2079-2312 (4391)

Both legs:

Down$20.2940.5¢+$9.51

Up$25.843¢-$1.5

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$49.71

Value

$51.9

PnL

+$2.19

Record

40%

750-1105 (1855)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$61.01

Value

$50.38

PnL

-$10.63

Record

50%

4423-4495 (8918)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 35 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Down 64%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.1%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.