Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Down 70%
2 arb excluded
$23.9K
$64.39
Smart Money Signal
39 of 56 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$222.12 | 42% 264-364 (628) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$100.47 | 44% 553-691 (1244) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$33.63 | 52% 1393-1291 (2684) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$83.38 | 47% 1012-1142 (2154) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 61.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$30.28 | 59% 1016-699 (1715) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 80¢ | $1.1K | $981.34 | -$87.03 | 51% 5011-4721 (9732) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 71.5¢ | $926.71 | $747.85 | -$178.87 | 52% 352-331 (683) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.5¢ | $534.49 | $747.85 | +$213.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.4¢ | $392.22 | — | -$392.22 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 82.6¢ | $618.4 | $680.05 | +$61.65 | 50% 1405-1380 (2785) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 68.9¢ | $548.11 | $549.62 | +$39.1 | 50% 4423-4495 (8918) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 59¢ | $551.37 | $531.74 | -$16.79 | 44% 727-924 (1651) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 82.7¢ | $694.86 | $511.84 | +$57.98 | 55% 414-341 (755) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $572.78 | $474.23 | +$6.57 | 54% 3514-2992 (6506) |
AL almach | Downavg 79.2¢ | $799.02 | $474.18 | +$209.7 | 51% 1414-1359 (2773) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 75.2¢ | $350.92 | $356.94 | +$6.02 | 55% 4411-3594 (8005) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 78.2¢ | $335.82 | $385.32 | +$49.5 | 51% 765-743 (1508) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 80.8¢ | $476.89 | $287.65 | -$32.66 | 52% 2196-2051 (4247) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 80.8¢ | $252.74 | $292.81 | +$40.07 | 51% 777-760 (1537) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $273.1 | $276.1 | +$3.01 | 46% 693-822 (1515) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 28.8¢ | $345.08 | — | -$299.41 | 46% 778-912 (1690) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 62.6¢ | $195.24 | $258.18 | +$62.94 | 51% 777-749 (1526) |
BO bosona | Downavg 84.4¢ | $481.53 | $238.42 | +$94.42 | 51% 4658-4490 (9148) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $164.8 | $223.8 | +$59 | 48% 725-773 (1498) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 64.4¢ | $273.35 | $210.59 | -$31.59 | 52% 861-795 (1656) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $190.59 | $173.87 | -$16.72 | 53% 4534-3951 (8485) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.9¢ | $123.26 | $173.87 | +$50.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.2¢ | $67.32 | — | -$67.32 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 64.5¢ | $121.5 | $153.73 | +$34.83 | 40% 750-1105 (1855) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$222.12
Record
42%
264-364 (628)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$100.47
Record
44%
553-691 (1244)
Invested
$3,863.38
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$33.63
Record
52%
1393-1291 (2684)
Invested
$1,066.83
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$83.38
Record
47%
1012-1142 (2154)
Invested
$1,070.92
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$30.28
Record
59%
1016-699 (1715)
Invested
$1,068.36
Value
$981.34
PnL
-$87.03
Record
51%
5011-4721 (9732)
Invested
$926.71
Value
$747.85
PnL
-$178.87
Record
52%
352-331 (683)
Both legs:
Invested
$618.4
Value
$680.05
PnL
+$61.65
Record
50%
1405-1380 (2785)
Invested
$548.11
Value
$549.62
PnL
+$39.1
Record
50%
4423-4495 (8918)
Invested
$551.37
Value
$531.74
PnL
-$16.79
Record
44%
727-924 (1651)
Invested
$694.86
Value
$511.84
PnL
+$57.98
Record
55%
414-341 (755)
Invested
$572.78
Value
$474.23
PnL
+$6.57
Record
54%
3514-2992 (6506)
Invested
$799.02
Value
$474.18
PnL
+$209.7
Record
51%
1414-1359 (2773)
Invested
$350.92
Value
$356.94
PnL
+$6.02
Record
55%
4411-3594 (8005)
Invested
$335.82
Value
$385.32
PnL
+$49.5
Record
51%
765-743 (1508)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$476.89
Value
$287.65
PnL
-$32.66
Record
52%
2196-2051 (4247)
Invested
$252.74
Value
$292.81
PnL
+$40.07
Record
51%
777-760 (1537)
Invested
$273.1
Value
$276.1
PnL
+$3.01
Record
46%
693-822 (1515)
Invested
$345.08
Value
—
PnL
-$299.41
Record
46%
778-912 (1690)
Invested
$195.24
Value
$258.18
PnL
+$62.94
Record
51%
777-749 (1526)
Invested
$481.53
Value
$238.42
PnL
+$94.42
Record
51%
4658-4490 (9148)
Invested
$164.8
Value
$223.8
PnL
+$59
Record
48%
725-773 (1498)
Invested
$273.35
Value
$210.59
PnL
-$31.59
Record
52%
861-795 (1656)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$190.59
Value
$173.87
PnL
-$16.72
Record
53%
4534-3951 (8485)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$121.5
Value
$153.73
PnL
+$34.83
Record
40%
750-1105 (1855)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
0x50f7
Down — $3.9K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.1K
blue.birds
Down — $981.34
gansinimen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Down — $680.05
asdcaxz
Down — $549.62
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $531.74