Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Up 72%
4 arb excluded
$11.6K
$-8.2K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 53 top traders (72%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 42% 264-364 (628) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 44% 553-691 (1244) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$34.49 | 99% 837-7 (844) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 79.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$37.43 | 47% 1012-1142 (2154) |
BO bosona | Upavg 68.9¢ | $814.34 | $1.0K | +$221.26 | 51% 4658-4490 (9148) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$2 | 51% 3392-3202 (6594) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 72.4¢ | $504.25 | $594.84 | +$90.59 | 44% 727-924 (1651) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 73.6¢ | $428.75 | $581.85 | +$153.1 | 50% 1405-1380 (2785) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $557.03 | $485.72 | +$1.31 | 54% 3514-2992 (6506) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.7¢ | $246.27 | $485.72 | +$250.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.8¢ | $246.7 | — | -$248.74 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $387.1 | $395 | +$7.9 | 98% 3730-79 (3809) |
AL almach | Upavg 75.9¢ | $333.06 | $438.86 | +$105.79 | 51% 1414-1359 (2773) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 35.8¢ | $401.96 | — | -$401.96 | 59% 1016-699 (1715) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 75.1¢ | $231.33 | $289.51 | +$64.66 | 50% 4423-4495 (8918) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 70.8¢ | $236.53 | $210.1 | -$26.43 | 51% 5011-4721 (9732) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 80.7¢ | $234.9 | $207.15 | -$27.75 | 32% 684-1451 (2135) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 71.4¢ | $206.88 | $238.59 | +$31.71 | 51% 777-749 (1526) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 66.2¢ | $143.26 | $157.5 | +$14.24 | 55% 4411-3594 (8005) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 63.1¢ | $116.1 | $138.08 | +$23.5 | 52% 861-795 (1656) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 82¢ | $342.22 | $120 | -$24.38 | 52% 2196-2051 (4247) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Downavg 61.6¢ | $111.59 | — | -$111.59 | 52% 352-331 (683) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 73.3¢ | $76.7 | $101.68 | +$24.98 | 48% 1258-1344 (2602) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 64.6¢ | $82.72 | $128.06 | +$45.34 | 48% 725-773 (1498) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 27.4¢ | $124.65 | $71.59 | -$53.06 | 46% 778-912 (1690) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.6¢ | $43.39 | $71.59 | +$28.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.4¢ | $81.26 | — | -$81.26 | |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 45.9¢ | $58.87 | $119.57 | +$60.7 | 44% 2080-2676 (4756) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 71.6¢ | $62.42 | $82.12 | +$19.69 | 51% 3173-3101 (6274) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
42%
264-364 (628)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
44%
553-691 (1244)
Invested
$3,414.51
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$34.49
Record
99%
837-7 (844)
Invested
$1,060.88
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$37.43
Record
47%
1012-1142 (2154)
Invested
$814.34
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$221.26
Record
51%
4658-4490 (9148)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$2
Record
51%
3392-3202 (6594)
Invested
$504.25
Value
$594.84
PnL
+$90.59
Record
44%
727-924 (1651)
Invested
$428.75
Value
$581.85
PnL
+$153.1
Record
50%
1405-1380 (2785)
Invested
$557.03
Value
$485.72
PnL
+$1.31
Record
54%
3514-2992 (6506)
Both legs:
Invested
$387.1
Value
$395
PnL
+$7.9
Record
98%
3730-79 (3809)
Invested
$333.06
Value
$438.86
PnL
+$105.79
Record
51%
1414-1359 (2773)
Invested
$401.96
Value
—
PnL
-$401.96
Record
59%
1016-699 (1715)
Invested
$231.33
Value
$289.51
PnL
+$64.66
Record
50%
4423-4495 (8918)
Invested
$236.53
Value
$210.1
PnL
-$26.43
Record
51%
5011-4721 (9732)
Invested
$234.9
Value
$207.15
PnL
-$27.75
Record
32%
684-1451 (2135)
Invested
$206.88
Value
$238.59
PnL
+$31.71
Record
51%
777-749 (1526)
Invested
$143.26
Value
$157.5
PnL
+$14.24
Record
55%
4411-3594 (8005)
Invested
$116.1
Value
$138.08
PnL
+$23.5
Record
52%
861-795 (1656)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$342.22
Value
$120
PnL
-$24.38
Record
52%
2196-2051 (4247)
Invested
$111.59
Value
—
PnL
-$111.59
Record
52%
352-331 (683)
Invested
$76.7
Value
$101.68
PnL
+$24.98
Record
48%
1258-1344 (2602)
Invested
$82.72
Value
$128.06
PnL
+$45.34
Record
48%
725-773 (1498)
Invested
$124.65
Value
$71.59
PnL
-$53.06
Record
46%
778-912 (1690)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$58.87
Value
$119.57
PnL
+$60.7
Record
44%
2080-2676 (4756)
Invested
$62.42
Value
$82.12
PnL
+$19.69
Record
51%
3173-3101 (6274)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.4K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.1K
bosona
Up — $1.0K
soswald1
Up — $950
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $594.84
mo-money
Up — $581.85
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $395