Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Down 82%
2 arb excluded
$23.9K
$-7.2K
Smart Money Signal
49 of 60 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.6¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$36.08 | 52% 1393-1291 (2684) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 42% 264-364 (628) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 44% 553-691 (1244) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 76¢ | $1.7K | $2.0K | +$246.7 | 50% 2267-2294 (4561) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$44.32 | 98% 3730-79 (3809) |
SU suntori | Downavg 72.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.7K | +$461.94 | 46% 2762-3273 (6035) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 69¢ | $1.4K | $1.7K | +$249.51 | 59% 1016-699 (1715) |
BO bosona | Downavg 78.7¢ | $624.55 | $717.86 | +$93.31 | 51% 4658-4490 (9148) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.8¢ | $578.1 | $652.4 | +$92.85 | 47% 1012-1142 (2154) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 76.6¢ | $613.61 | $634.38 | +$22.76 | 52% 352-331 (683) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $621.96 | $497.39 | +$5.85 | 54% 3514-2992 (6506) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 47.2¢ | $588.21 | — | -$588.21 | 50% 1907-1871 (3778) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.7¢ | $398.6 | $400 | +$1.4 | 49% 1530-1579 (3109) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 60.2¢ | $319.21 | $384.26 | +$65.05 | 55% 4411-3594 (8005) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 72.1¢ | $297.54 | $372.6 | +$75.06 | 46% 1049-1224 (2273) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 74.8¢ | $348.13 | $337.88 | -$10.24 | 44% 727-924 (1651) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $225.42 | $266.04 | +$40.62 | 46% 693-822 (1515) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 78.8¢ | $218.04 | $221.23 | +$3.18 | 46% 778-912 (1690) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 77.3¢ | $305.36 | $216.48 | -$1.57 | 51% 5011-4721 (9732) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99.9¢ | $850.23 | $214.05 | -$82.05 | 50% 1405-1380 (2785) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 81.1¢ | $262.99 | $205.57 | -$56.31 | 52% 861-795 (1656) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $183.64 | $135 | -$48.64 | 50% 4423-4495 (8918) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.2¢ | $91.14 | — | -$91.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.5¢ | $92.5 | $135 | +$42.5 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 91.4¢ | $305.96 | $170.37 | +$7.87 | 63% 4009-2399 (6408) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 81.1¢ | $158.31 | $169.01 | +$10.7 | 53% 4534-3951 (8485) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 75.2¢ | $148.9 | $164.29 | +$31.69 | 58% 4999-3667 (8666) |
Invested
$8,967.95
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$36.08
Record
52%
1393-1291 (2684)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
42%
264-364 (628)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
44%
553-691 (1244)
Invested
$1,732.44
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$246.7
Record
50%
2267-2294 (4561)
Invested
$1,612.44
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$44.32
Record
98%
3730-79 (3809)
Invested
$1,192.86
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$461.94
Record
46%
2762-3273 (6035)
Invested
$1,427.06
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$249.51
Record
59%
1016-699 (1715)
Invested
$624.55
Value
$717.86
PnL
+$93.31
Record
51%
4658-4490 (9148)
Invested
$578.1
Value
$652.4
PnL
+$92.85
Record
47%
1012-1142 (2154)
Invested
$613.61
Value
$634.38
PnL
+$22.76
Record
52%
352-331 (683)
Invested
$621.96
Value
$497.39
PnL
+$5.85
Record
54%
3514-2992 (6506)
Invested
$588.21
Value
—
PnL
-$588.21
Record
50%
1907-1871 (3778)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$398.6
Value
$400
PnL
+$1.4
Record
49%
1530-1579 (3109)
Invested
$319.21
Value
$384.26
PnL
+$65.05
Record
55%
4411-3594 (8005)
machinelearnedInvested
$297.54
Value
$372.6
PnL
+$75.06
Record
46%
1049-1224 (2273)
Invested
$348.13
Value
$337.88
PnL
-$10.24
Record
44%
727-924 (1651)
Invested
$225.42
Value
$266.04
PnL
+$40.62
Record
46%
693-822 (1515)
Invested
$218.04
Value
$221.23
PnL
+$3.18
Record
46%
778-912 (1690)
Invested
$305.36
Value
$216.48
PnL
-$1.57
Record
51%
5011-4721 (9732)
Invested
$850.23
Value
$214.05
PnL
-$82.05
Record
50%
1405-1380 (2785)
Invested
$262.99
Value
$205.57
PnL
-$56.31
Record
52%
861-795 (1656)
Invested
$183.64
Value
$135
PnL
-$48.64
Record
50%
4423-4495 (8918)
Both legs:
Invested
$305.96
Value
$170.37
PnL
+$7.87
Record
63%
4009-2399 (6408)
FairValueMachineInvested
$158.31
Value
$169.01
PnL
+$10.7
Record
53%
4534-3951 (8485)
Invested
$148.9
Value
$164.29
PnL
+$31.69
Record
58%
4999-3667 (8666)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $2.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.7K
suntori
Down — $1.7K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.7K
bosona
Down — $717.86
CrouchPredictions
Down — $652.4
gansinimen
Down — $634.38