Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (86%). 9 of 41 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

9 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold Up (22%) · Up at 14¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 14

Up14¢Down86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 22%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 14.5¢

-74% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 41 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Down 86%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up14%

Down86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares14,692

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down32 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,166

Combined PnL+$396.27

Up — 22%Down — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0	42% 264-364 (628)
0X 0x2920d1023AD811c4321572CBD970398D9190f978-1775942251723CTR	Upavg 62.9¢	$4.9K	$3.3K	$-1.6K	— 4-8 (12)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 48.8¢	$964.29	$782.36	-$171.98	59% 1016-699 (1715)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$444.05	$616.74	+$172.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$489.76	$165.61	-$344.68
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 52.2¢	$598.83	$498.99	+$0.87	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 32.5¢	$485.46	$491.33	+$5.87	47% 1012-1142 (2154)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.8¢	$215.95	$354.69	+$138.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.5¢	$269.51	$136.64	-$132.86
AL almachCTR	Upavg 49.1¢	$525.14	$459.61	-$65.53	51% 1414-1359 (2773)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 56.4¢	$374.92	$371.57	-$3.36	44% 727-924 (1651)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 69.4¢	$230.13	$244.18	+$14.05	51% 5011-4721 (9732)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 70.4¢	$254.48	$243.44	-$11.04	52% 352-331 (683)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 39.2¢	$142.3	$239.27	+$96.97	51% 765-743 (1508)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 61.7¢	$265.9	$236.15	-$29.75	32% 684-1451 (2135)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.7¢	$133.65	$180.87	+$47.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.5¢	$132.25	$55.28	-$76.98
ST stepahead	Downavg 50.3¢	$219.66	$232.75	+$13.09	55% 4411-3594 (8005)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 42.6¢	$170.49	$229.61	+$59.12	51% 777-760 (1537)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 44¢	$158.57	$205.09	+$99.61	56% 278-219 (497)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 66.8¢	$177.61	$184.6	+$14.46	52% 861-795 (1656)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 58.4¢	$153.6	$174.96	+$21.36	50% 2267-2294 (4561)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 58.3¢	$175.38	$167.38	+$18.41	53% 4534-3951 (8485)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$189.4	$166.4	-$23	52% 2196-2051 (4247)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.3¢	$76	$116.9	+$40.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.8¢	$113.4	$49.5	-$63.9
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 44.1¢	$211.5	$152.9	-$58.6	50% 758-762 (1520)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$72.34	$100.81	+$28.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.1¢	$139.15	$52.09	-$87.06
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 53¢	$133.03	$152.7	+$19.66	50% 4423-4495 (8918)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53¢	$76.03	$119.68	+$43.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.5¢	$57	$33.02	-$23.98
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$124.32	$136.51	+$12.19	46% 693-822 (1515)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$86.32	$88.01	+$1.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 38¢	$38	$48.5	+$10.5
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 48.6¢	$376.53	$127.95	-$248.58	51% 4658-4490 (9148)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$185.35	$122.86	-$62.49	46% 778-912 (1690)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.5¢	$41.75	$74.99	+$33.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$143.6	$47.86	-$95.73
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 40.5¢	$54.59	$97.78	+$43.2	48% 1258-1344 (2602)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 38¢	$95	$93.75	-$1.25	51% 972-925 (1897)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

264-364 (628)

0x2920d1023AD811c4321572CBD970398D9190f978-1775942251723CTR

Invested

$4,869.02

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

—

4-8 (12)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$964.29

Value

$782.36

PnL

-$171.98

Record

59%

1016-699 (1715)

Both legs:

Down$444.0560.1¢+$172.69

Up$489.7648.8¢-$344.68

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$598.83

Value

$498.99

PnL

+$0.87

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$485.46

Value

$491.33

PnL

+$5.87

Record

47%

1012-1142 (2154)

Both legs:

Down$215.9550.8¢+$138.73

Up$269.5132.5¢-$132.86

almachCTR

Invested

$525.14

Value

$459.61

PnL

-$65.53

Record

51%

1414-1359 (2773)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$374.92

Value

$371.57

PnL

-$3.36

Record

44%

727-924 (1651)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$230.13

Value

$244.18

PnL

+$14.05

Record

51%

5011-4721 (9732)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$254.48

Value

$243.44

PnL

-$11.04

Record

52%

352-331 (683)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$142.3

Value

$239.27

PnL

+$96.97

Record

51%

765-743 (1508)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$265.9

Value

$236.15

PnL

-$29.75

Record

32%

684-1451 (2135)

Both legs:

Down$133.6561.7¢+$47.22

Up$132.2539.5¢-$76.98

stepahead

Down

Invested

$219.66

Value

$232.75

PnL

+$13.09

Record

55%

4411-3594 (8005)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$170.49

Value

$229.61

PnL

+$59.12

Record

51%

777-760 (1537)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$158.57

Value

$205.09

PnL

+$99.61

Record

56%

278-219 (497)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$177.61

Value

$184.6

PnL

+$14.46

Record

52%

861-795 (1656)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$153.6

Value

$174.96

PnL

+$21.36

Record

50%

2267-2294 (4561)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$175.38

Value

$167.38

PnL

+$18.41

Record

53%

4534-3951 (8485)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$189.4

Value

$166.4

PnL

-$23

Record

52%

2196-2051 (4247)

Both legs:

Down$7654.3¢+$40.9

Up$113.437.8¢-$63.9

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$211.5

Value

$152.9

PnL

-$58.6

Record

50%

758-762 (1520)

Both legs:

Down$72.3459.9¢+$28.47

Up$139.1544.1¢-$87.06

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$133.03

Value

$152.7

PnL

+$19.66

Record

50%

4423-4495 (8918)

Both legs:

Down$76.0353¢+$43.65

Up$5728.5¢-$23.98

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Invested

$124.32

Value

$136.51

PnL

+$12.19

Record

46%

693-822 (1515)

Both legs:

Up$86.3250.5¢+$1.69

Down$3838¢+$10.5

bosonaCTR

Invested

$376.53

Value

$127.95

PnL

-$248.58

Record

51%

4658-4490 (9148)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$185.35

Value

$122.86

PnL

-$62.49

Record

46%

778-912 (1690)

Both legs:

Down$41.7546.5¢+$33.24

Up$143.649.5¢-$95.73

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$54.59

Value

$97.78

PnL

+$43.2

Record

48%

1258-1344 (2602)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$95

Value

$93.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

51%

972-925 (1897)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 41 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Down 86%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.4%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$509.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

609.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.