Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
48 of 59 top Polymarket traders hold Down (81%) · Down at 100¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Down
59
Down 81%
4 arb excluded
$25.0K
$-2.5K
76.4¢ → 100¢
+31% since entry · 48 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
48 of 59 top traders (81%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntori | Downavg 97.3¢ | $6.9K | $7.1K | +$190.1 | 46% 2762-3273 (6035) |
 arcsine-barristerARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$3.32 | 42% 264-364 (628) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $2.5K | $3.1K | +$625 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $2.5K | $1.8K | -$621.68 | |
 Atomforge | Downavg 60.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$193.45 | 26% 277-777 (1054) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $872.5 | $904.78 | +$32.28 | 50% 1907-1871 (3778) |
BO bosona | Downavg 67.4¢ | $678.69 | $894.04 | +$215.35 | 51% 4658-4490 (9148) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 62.8¢ | $699.57 | $875.14 | +$175.57 | 47% 1012-1142 (2154) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $782.1 | $789.61 | +$7.51 | 98% 3730-79 (3809) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 63¢ | $705.02 | $763.29 | +$58.27 | 55% 4411-3594 (8005) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 71.7¢ | $699.41 | $694.9 | -$4.51 | 51% 5011-4721 (9732) |
AL almach | Downavg 64.6¢ | $478.59 | $668.79 | +$225.32 | 51% 1414-1359 (2773) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 62.4¢ | $479.97 | $500.46 | +$20.49 | 52% 352-331 (683) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $558.99 | $482.13 | +$15.09 | 54% 3514-2992 (6506) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $443.32 | +$395.77 | 50% 1405-1380 (2785) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 60.8¢ | $406.12 | $423.89 | +$17.77 | 32% 684-1451 (2135) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $384.31 | $389.96 | +$5.65 | 59% 1016-699 (1715) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.2¢ | $269.97 | $309.05 | +$39.08 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.4¢ | $114.34 | $80.92 | -$33.43 | |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR | Upavg 43.7¢ | $395.58 | $288.67 | -$84.62 | 27% 108-290 (398) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 47.6¢ | $216.2 | $277.43 | +$61.23 | 51% 777-760 (1537) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 47.3¢ | $307.5 | $270 | -$37.5 | 50% 812-804 (1616) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 53.2¢ | $245.39 | $261.02 | +$15.63 | 51% 777-749 (1526) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.2¢ | $187.13 | $204.15 | +$17.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43¢ | $58.26 | $56.87 | -$1.39 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 53.2¢ | $191.01 | $257.45 | +$66.45 | 48% 725-773 (1498) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Upavg 35.1¢ | $302.57 | $247.47 | -$55.1 | 50% 758-762 (1520) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 64¢ | $183.83 | $194.74 | +$10.9 | 51% 765-743 (1508) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $128.78 | $156.58 | +$27.8 | 46% 693-822 (1515) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 51¢ | $126.75 | $147.9 | +$21.15 | 51% 972-925 (1897) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 44.2¢ | $170.02 | $145.62 | +$51.99 | 56% 278-219 (497) |
Invested
$6,921.71
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$190.1
Record
46%
2762-3273 (6035)
arcsine-barristerARB<$100Invested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$3.32
Record
42%
264-364 (628)
Both legs:
AtomforgeInvested
$1,102.55
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$193.45
Record
26%
277-777 (1054)
Invested
$872.5
Value
$904.78
PnL
+$32.28
Record
50%
1907-1871 (3778)
Invested
$678.69
Value
$894.04
PnL
+$215.35
Record
51%
4658-4490 (9148)
Invested
$699.57
Value
$875.14
PnL
+$175.57
Record
47%
1012-1142 (2154)
Invested
$782.1
Value
$789.61
PnL
+$7.51
Record
98%
3730-79 (3809)
Invested
$705.02
Value
$763.29
PnL
+$58.27
Record
55%
4411-3594 (8005)
Invested
$699.41
Value
$694.9
PnL
-$4.51
Record
51%
5011-4721 (9732)
Invested
$478.59
Value
$668.79
PnL
+$225.32
Record
51%
1414-1359 (2773)
Invested
$479.97
Value
$500.46
PnL
+$20.49
Record
52%
352-331 (683)
Invested
$558.99
Value
$482.13
PnL
+$15.09
Record
54%
3514-2992 (6506)
Invested
$1,664.88
Value
$443.32
PnL
+$395.77
Record
50%
1405-1380 (2785)
Invested
$406.12
Value
$423.89
PnL
+$17.77
Record
32%
684-1451 (2135)
Invested
$384.31
Value
$389.96
PnL
+$5.65
Record
59%
1016-699 (1715)
Both legs:
Invested
$395.58
Value
$288.67
PnL
-$84.62
Record
27%
108-290 (398)
Invested
$216.2
Value
$277.43
PnL
+$61.23
Record
51%
777-760 (1537)
Invested
$307.5
Value
$270
PnL
-$37.5
Record
50%
812-804 (1616)
Invested
$245.39
Value
$261.02
PnL
+$15.63
Record
51%
777-749 (1526)
Both legs:
Invested
$191.01
Value
$257.45
PnL
+$66.45
Record
48%
725-773 (1498)
Invested
$302.57
Value
$247.47
PnL
-$55.1
Record
50%
758-762 (1520)
Invested
$183.83
Value
$194.74
PnL
+$10.9
Record
51%
765-743 (1508)
Invested
$128.78
Value
$156.58
PnL
+$27.8
Record
46%
693-822 (1515)
Invested
$126.75
Value
$147.9
PnL
+$21.15
Record
51%
972-925 (1897)
Invested
$170.02
Value
$145.62
PnL
+$51.99
Record
56%
278-219 (497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
suntori
Down — $7.1K
arcsine-barrister
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Atomforge
Down — $1.2K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $904.78
bosona
Down — $894.04
CrouchPredictions
Down — $875.14
hoodquant
Down — $789.61
stepahead
Down — $763.29
blue.birds
Down — $694.9
almach
Down — $668.79