Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 66%

25 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.6K

Combined PnL

$4.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 41 top traders (66%)25 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$43.6K

Total Shares43,575

Combined PnL+$10.2K

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,110

Combined PnL$-5.6K

Down — 66%Up — 34%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocket	Downavg 58.7¢	$11.1K	$18.8K	+$7.8K	32% 64-139 (203)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-5.0K	42% 264-364 (628)
Atomforge	Downavg 53.1¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$59.13	26% 277-777 (1054)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 58.4¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$100.62	52% 352-331 (683)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.7¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.4¢	$2.0K	$3.5K	+$1.4K
TH THG.	Downavg 98.6¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$48.72	99% 837-7 (844)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 64.3¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$92.79	47% 1012-1142 (2154)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.3¢	$2.3K	$3.6K	+$1.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.4¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
AL almach	Downavg 74.2¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	+$311.97	51% 1414-1359 (2773)
SU suntori	Downavg 57¢	$1.6K	$2.6K	+$1.1K	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 61.4¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$35.71	51% 5011-4721 (9732)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 77.3¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	+$265.09	51% 4658-4490 (9148)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.3¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$593.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.8¢	$320.55	—	-$328.46
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 58.4¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$20.69	27% 108-290 (398)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$142.06	44% 727-924 (1651)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40¢	$642.4	—	-$642.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.5¢	$872.07	$1.4K	+$500.34
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$39.22	98% 3730-79 (3809)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 56.5¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	+$49.99	52% 2196-2051 (4247)
MO mo-money	Downavg 85.9¢	$5.9K	$2.1K	+$288.69	50% 1405-1380 (2785)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 69.3¢	$987.04	$822.82	-$164.23	46% 778-912 (1690)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.5¢	$417.16	—	-$417.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.3¢	$569.89	$822.82	+$252.93
NIULAI4	Downavg 76.7¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$257.7	28% 485-1266 (1751)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 37.3¢	$633.85	$474.79	-$159.05	50% 2267-2294 (4561)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$371.9	—	-$371.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.2¢	$261.94	$474.79	+$212.85
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 54.5¢	$853.81	$730.01	+$40.47	59% 1016-699 (1715)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$770.34	-$4.52	51% 3392-3202 (6594)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$385.17	$770.34	+$408.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$345.2	—	-$413.3
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$908.05	$1.1K	+$170.74	50% 758-762 (1520)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$730.35	$1.1K	+$348.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$177.7	—	-$177.7
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$696.94	$566.88	-$130.06	55% 4411-3594 (8005)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.7¢	$375.52	—	-$375.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.7¢	$321.42	$566.88	+$245.46
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 55.2¢	$791.13	$474.54	+$39.45	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.2¢	$261.93	$474.54	+$262.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.8¢	$198.81	—	-$222.93
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 71.9¢	$445.94	$417.62	-$28.32	46% 693-822 (1515)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.9¢	$145.63	—	-$145.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.9¢	$300.31	$417.62	+$117.32
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$322.45	$290.54	-$31.91	51% 765-743 (1508)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.5¢	$157.04	—	-$157.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$165.41	$290.54	+$125.13

borderlocket

Down

Invested

$11,063.06

Value

$18.8K

PnL

+$7.8K

Record

32%

64-139 (203)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

42%

264-364 (628)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$3,994.42

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$59.13

Record

26%

277-777 (1054)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$3,374.33

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$100.62

Record

52%

352-331 (683)

Both legs:

Up$1,343.4538.7¢$-1.3K

Down$2,030.8858.4¢+$1.4K

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,392.28

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$48.72

Record

99%

837-7 (844)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$3,513.95

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$92.79

Record

47%

1012-1142 (2154)

Both legs:

Down$2,319.9164.3¢+$1.3K

Up$1,194.0437.4¢$-1.2K

almach

Down

Invested

$4,022.86

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$311.97

Record

51%

1414-1359 (2773)

suntori

Down

Invested

$1,585.85

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$1,674.64

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$35.71

Record

51%

5011-4721 (9732)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,955.23

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$265.09

Record

51%

4658-4490 (9148)

Both legs:

Down$1,980.4877.3¢+$593.55

Up$320.5546.8¢-$328.46

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$1,978.43

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$20.69

Record

27%

108-290 (398)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,514.47

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$142.06

Record

44%

727-924 (1651)

Both legs:

Up$642.440¢-$642.4

Down$872.0763.5¢+$500.34

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,241.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$39.22

Record

98%

3730-79 (3809)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,382.13

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$49.99

Record

52%

2196-2051 (4247)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$5,929.27

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$288.69

Record

50%

1405-1380 (2785)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$987.04

Value

$822.82

PnL

-$164.23

Record

46%

778-912 (1690)

Both legs:

Up$417.1637.5¢-$417.16

Down$569.8969.3¢+$252.93

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$1,307.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$257.7

Record

28%

485-1266 (1751)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$633.85

Value

$474.79

PnL

-$159.05

Record

50%

2267-2294 (4561)

Both legs:

Up$371.937.3¢-$371.9

Down$261.9455.2¢+$212.85

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$853.81

Value

$730.01

PnL

+$40.47

Record

59%

1016-699 (1715)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$770.34

PnL

-$4.52

Record

51%

3392-3202 (6594)

Both legs:

Down$385.1750¢+$408.78

Up$345.250¢-$413.3

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$908.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$170.74

Record

50%

758-762 (1520)

Both legs:

Down$730.3567.7¢+$348.44

Up$177.757.3¢-$177.7

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$696.94

Value

$566.88

PnL

-$130.06

Record

55%

4411-3594 (8005)

Both legs:

Up$375.5246.7¢-$375.52

Down$321.4256.7¢+$245.46

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$791.13

Value

$474.54

PnL

+$39.45

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

Both legs:

Down$261.9355.2¢+$262.38

Up$198.8142.8¢-$222.93

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$445.94

Value

$417.62

PnL

-$28.32

Record

46%

693-822 (1515)

Both legs:

Up$145.6329.9¢-$145.63

Down$300.3171.9¢+$117.32

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$322.45

Value

$290.54

PnL

-$31.91

Record

51%

765-743 (1508)

Both legs:

Up$157.0428.5¢-$157.04

Down$165.4156.9¢+$125.13

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 41 top traders (66%)25 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xda790dc3...1c4d1b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794686100

Traders in this Market

borderlocket

Down — $18.8K

+$7.8K

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Up — $0

$-5.0K

Atomforge

Down — $4.0K

+$59.13

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$100.62

THG.

Down — $3.4K

+$48.72

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$92.79

almach

Down — $3.3K

+$311.97

suntori

Down — $2.6K

+$1.1K

blue.birds

Down — $1.6K

bosona

Arbitrage — excluded