Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
66
Up 74%
4 arb excluded
$36.2K
$-3.8K
Smart Money Signal
49 of 66 top traders (74%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | $8.1K | +$6.61 | 54% 403-338 (741) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $8.1K | +$4.2K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-4.2K | |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 41% 252-362 (614) |
0X 0x2920d1023AD811c4321572CBD970398D9190f978-1775942251723 | Upavg 55.8¢ | $2.0K | $3.6K | +$1.6K | — 4-8 (12) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$35.31 | 99% 827-7 (834) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$13 | 71% 1584-646 (2230) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 95.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$57.58 | 98% 3678-79 (3757) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 81.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$121.47 | 47% 1000-1136 (2136) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 76.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$27.8 | 51% 4998-4717 (9715) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 73.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$120.13 | 32% 676-1445 (2121) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 81.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | -$96.43 | 26% 276-777 (1053) |
AL almach | Upavg 89.2¢ | $2.1K | $1,000 | +$120.94 | 51% 1399-1354 (2753) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 70.7¢ | $981.8 | $894.4 | -$82.1 | 60% 1012-687 (1699) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 70.7¢ | $830.56 | $856.78 | +$26.22 | 55% 4400-3587 (7987) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 73.1¢ | $791.21 | $823.42 | +$32.22 | 44% 720-917 (1637) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 83.1¢ | $784.39 | $800.64 | +$16.25 | 52% 2184-2035 (4219) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 68¢ | $750.25 | $732.01 | -$0.07 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 74.8¢ | $720.54 | $679.4 | -$39.64 | 50% 4397-4477 (8874) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 65.1¢ | $639.46 | $648.72 | +$9.26 | 51% 345-325 (670) |
BO bosona | Upavg 80.6¢ | $549.05 | $575.56 | +$26.51 | 51% 4643-4484 (9127) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 56.2¢ | $716.58 | $488.65 | +$12.79 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Upavg 81.9¢ | $582.88 | $408.44 | -$16.65 | 27% 108-290 (398) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 75¢ | $437.48 | $401.8 | -$35.69 | 46% 770-906 (1676) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 35.6¢ | $896.57 | $160 | -$736.57 | 50% 2249-2257 (4506) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.6¢ | $746.17 | — | -$746.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 94¢ | $150.4 | $160 | +$9.6 | |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 63.5¢ | $239.33 | $279.99 | +$67.36 | 53% 4528-3944 (8472) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 67.7¢ | $255.56 | $273.69 | +$18.13 | 51% 757-737 (1494) |
Invested
$8,957
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$6.61
Record
54%
403-338 (741)
Both legs:
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
41%
252-362 (614)
Invested
$1,999.37
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
—
4-8 (12)
Invested
$3,402.69
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$35.31
Record
99%
827-7 (834)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,013
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$13
Record
71%
1584-646 (2230)
Invested
$1,286.41
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$57.58
Record
98%
3678-79 (3757)
Invested
$1,212.75
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$121.47
Record
47%
1000-1136 (2136)
Invested
$1,213.89
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$27.8
Record
51%
4998-4717 (9715)
Invested
$1,040.95
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$120.13
Record
32%
676-1445 (2121)
AtomforgeInvested
$1,561.18
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$96.43
Record
26%
276-777 (1053)
Invested
$2,092.52
Value
$1,000
PnL
+$120.94
Record
51%
1399-1354 (2753)
Invested
$981.8
Value
$894.4
PnL
-$82.1
Record
60%
1012-687 (1699)
Invested
$830.56
Value
$856.78
PnL
+$26.22
Record
55%
4400-3587 (7987)
Invested
$791.21
Value
$823.42
PnL
+$32.22
Record
44%
720-917 (1637)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$784.39
Value
$800.64
PnL
+$16.25
Record
52%
2184-2035 (4219)
Invested
$750.25
Value
$732.01
PnL
-$0.07
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
Invested
$720.54
Value
$679.4
PnL
-$39.64
Record
50%
4397-4477 (8874)
Invested
$639.46
Value
$648.72
PnL
+$9.26
Record
51%
345-325 (670)
Invested
$549.05
Value
$575.56
PnL
+$26.51
Record
51%
4643-4484 (9127)
Invested
$716.58
Value
$488.65
PnL
+$12.79
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
Invested
$582.88
Value
$408.44
PnL
-$16.65
Record
27%
108-290 (398)
Invested
$437.48
Value
$401.8
PnL
-$35.69
Record
46%
770-906 (1676)
Invested
$896.57
Value
$160
PnL
-$736.57
Record
50%
2249-2257 (4506)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$239.33
Value
$279.99
PnL
+$67.36
Record
53%
4528-3944 (8472)
Invested
$255.56
Value
$273.69
PnL
+$18.13
Record
51%
757-737 (1494)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
ARBArbitrage — excluded
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
0x2920d1023AD811c4321572CBD970398D9190f978-1775942251723
Up — $3.6K
THG.
Up — $3.4K
BoneOhio
Up — $3.0K
hoodquant
Up — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.3K
blue.birds
Up — $1.2K
ply-pm0
Up — $1.2K
Atomforge
Up — $1.1K