Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Down 62%
1 arb excluded
$18.1K
$-14.9K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 53 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$9.01 | 52% 1380-1282 (2662) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.8K | 54% 403-338 (741) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 41% 252-362 (614) |
SU suntori | Downavg 88.8¢ | $3.8K | $4.2K | +$474.63 | 46% 2743-3256 (5999) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$12.64 | 98% 3678-79 (3757) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$945.45 | 51% 3344-3190 (6534) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $529.35 | $500.5 | +$0.36 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 66.9¢ | $400.09 | $399.99 | -$0.1 | 52% 2184-2035 (4219) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 46.9¢ | $424.67 | — | -$424.67 | 60% 1012-687 (1699) |
AL almach | Downavg 95.5¢ | $404.08 | $359.31 | -$44.77 | 51% 1399-1354 (2753) |
BO bosona | Downavg 88.9¢ | $505.6 | $328.42 | -$177.18 | 51% 4643-4484 (9127) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 59.5¢ | $251.46 | $216.26 | -$35.2 | 55% 4400-3587 (7987) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 44.8¢ | $365.78 | — | -$365.78 | 47% 1000-1136 (2136) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 47.2¢ | $179.28 | $202.49 | +$23.21 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 77.5¢ | $182.37 | $202.68 | +$20.31 | 51% 4998-4717 (9715) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 67.7¢ | $153.22 | $182.92 | +$29.71 | 44% 720-917 (1637) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 91¢ | $154.82 | $144.51 | -$10.31 | 50% 4397-4477 (8874) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 54.9¢ | $148.25 | $139.25 | -$4.5 | 46% 770-906 (1676) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 99¢ | $131.12 | $131 | -$0.12 | 38% 1410-2275 (3685) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 19¢ | $209 | — | -$209 | 46% 1041-1218 (2259) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 65.7¢ | $72.51 | $102.88 | +$30.37 | 50% 1389-1374 (2763) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 89.9¢ | $115.85 | $99.74 | -$16.12 | 48% 717-767 (1484) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.1¢ | $67.47 | $83.23 | +$15.76 | 67% 3366-1674 (5040) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $80.51 | $93.94 | +$36.18 | 59% 954-664 (1618) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $68.99 | — | -$68.99 | 50% 805-795 (1600) |
Invested
$8,997.01
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$9.01
Record
52%
1380-1282 (2662)
Invested
$8,592
Value
—
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
54%
403-338 (741)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
41%
252-362 (614)
Invested
$3,772.74
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$474.63
Record
46%
2743-3256 (5999)
Invested
$1,251.45
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.64
Record
98%
3678-79 (3757)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$945.45
Record
51%
3344-3190 (6534)
Invested
$529.35
Value
$500.5
PnL
+$0.36
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$400.09
Value
$399.99
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
2184-2035 (4219)
Invested
$424.67
Value
—
PnL
-$424.67
Record
60%
1012-687 (1699)
Invested
$404.08
Value
$359.31
PnL
-$44.77
Record
51%
1399-1354 (2753)
Invested
$505.6
Value
$328.42
PnL
-$177.18
Record
51%
4643-4484 (9127)
Invested
$251.46
Value
$216.26
PnL
-$35.2
Record
55%
4400-3587 (7987)
Invested
$365.78
Value
—
PnL
-$365.78
Record
47%
1000-1136 (2136)
Invested
$179.28
Value
$202.49
PnL
+$23.21
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
Invested
$182.37
Value
$202.68
PnL
+$20.31
Record
51%
4998-4717 (9715)
Invested
$153.22
Value
$182.92
PnL
+$29.71
Record
44%
720-917 (1637)
Invested
$154.82
Value
$144.51
PnL
-$10.31
Record
50%
4397-4477 (8874)
Invested
$148.25
Value
$139.25
PnL
-$4.5
Record
46%
770-906 (1676)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$131.12
Value
$131
PnL
-$0.12
Record
38%
1410-2275 (3685)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$209
Value
—
PnL
-$209
Record
46%
1041-1218 (2259)
Invested
$72.51
Value
$102.88
PnL
+$30.37
Record
50%
1389-1374 (2763)
Invested
$115.85
Value
$99.74
PnL
-$16.12
Record
48%
717-767 (1484)
Invested
$67.47
Value
$83.23
PnL
+$15.76
Record
67%
3366-1674 (5040)
Invested
$80.51
Value
$93.94
PnL
+$36.18
Record
59%
954-664 (1618)
Invested
$68.99
Value
—
PnL
-$68.99
Record
50%
805-795 (1600)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
suntori
Down — $4.2K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $500.5
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $399.99
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
almach
Down — $359.31